This week I am getting to these really late, so do not joke around. Here are a bunch of very loopy picks that are mostly based on streaks, feel, and a few prayers.
Some of the things that are predicting these things are anger, desperation, history, beliefs, and even love. Let us leave…
Picks so far: 61ā35
10 Best Predictions Against The Spread
10. Oregon at Michigan, Kansas State at Houston, Navy at Rice
Line:Ā Oregon -14.5, Kansas State -13, Navy -11.5
Prediction:Ā Michigan, Houston, Rice
I apologize for starting out this weird week of picks with a gimmick, but Iām giving it a shot.
Every year for the last 20ish-something seasons Iāve gone with a closely held belief that at this point – the dog days of the season – you go with the Double Digit Home Dog. But with one caveat – conference games only.
In 2001 there was a run of DDHDs that hit at a crazy clip. I did an article on it, it sparked something in the investment community, and this piece has been a part of the weekly in-season routine ever since.
When this works, these games tend to defy all logic and reason, and that counts triple here.
It doesnāt help that a -14.5 point favorite Tulane rolled Charlotte 34-3 on Thursday, so for Michigan, Houston, and Rice, Iāll count them all as one.
I actually sort of like Michigan, but not so into Houston and Rice, but again, if this works like it usually can, deep analysis doesnāt matter. The same goes for ā¦
9. Air Force at Army
Line:Ā Point Total 41.5
Prediction:Ā Under
It is on the list of the 10 Best Predictions, but I do it sometimes just because I have to.
I hate making this prediction, but I have to. Never, ever, ever mess with a streak. It is the right thing to do.
As a college football analyst, this goes against everything I think. 41.5 points have been scored by Army alone in each of the last four games. Army is great, Air Force is terrible, and (take a deep breath)
2023 Army 23, Air Force 3
2022 Air Force 13, Army 7
2021 Army 21, Air Force 14
2020 Army 10, Air Force 7
2019 Air Force 17, Army 13
Do you follow what I am saying? Want more?
2018 Army 17, Air Force 14
2017 Army 21, Air Force 0
2016 Air Force 31, Army 12 – and there you go. A point total between Army and Air Force that got past 41.5. Oh, by the way ā¦
2015 Air Force 20, Army 3
2014 Air Force 23, Army 6
Since Air Force beat Army 42-28 in 2013, nine of the last ten meetings went under 42 points. And by the way, Air Force vs Navy this year back in early October? Navy 34-7 (41 points).
Itās been a long week, so Iāll rapid fire through the rest of these ā¦
8. Virginia Tech at Syracuse
Line:Ā Moneyline Syracuse +160, Virginia Tech -190
Prediction:Ā Syracuse
I am becoming cute.
The Moneyline thing NEVER works for me. If you really want to win, just take the points. But I will be mad if my gut tells me something is wrong and I do not act on it.
Just my opinion, but I think Syracuse will be ready to rock after their terrible game against Pitt last week. The Orange have not been at home in a month, so they should do something great early on.
7. UMass at Mississippi State
Line:Ā Mississippi State -18.5
Prediction:Ā Mississippi State
Mississippi State needs to have some fun. It has yet to beat an FBS team this season, but itās playing better.
The one win was over Eastern Kentucky 56-7, UMass got whacked at home by Missouri a few weeks ago 45-3, and after all the pain and suffering so far in the first year under Jeff Lebby, the team will pour it on.
6. Ohio State at Penn State
Line:Ā Ohio State -3.5
Prediction:Ā Ohio State
This year, Ohio State is my ride-or-die team. It is better than everyone else except Georgia, and it will start playing like it soon.
I understand that the offensive line is having trouble, but the Buckeyes’ defense will take care of this. Giving up 3.5 is not enough to make me leave.
5. Wisconsin at Iowa
Line:Ā Iowa -2.5
Prediction:Ā Iowa
This is the second week of my “I am Not Buying It” tour in Wisconsin.
I was right about Alabama vs. UW, Penn State, and even Wisconsin beating Northwestern. This is a flawed team that will not be able to score a lot against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. It is great that the spread is less than a field goal.
4. Florida vs Georgia
Line:Ā Georgia -16.5
Prediction:Ā Georgia
I KNOW I am not being myself this week. But once more, if things start to go wrong, just play the streak. If it does not work, blame yourself.
I think Florida is better than everyone thinks, but the last time this game was decided by less than 17 points was in 2020, which was a crazy year, and Florida still won 44ā28.
Before 2019, the last time this game was not a double-digit blowout was in 2013. Also, it had been closed for years before that.
3. North Carolina at Florida State
Line:Ā Point Total 50.5
Prediction:Ā Under
As I have said before, keep riding the streak until it ends.
The 50-point mark is usually wiped out in North Carolina games, but I will give this one another chance. I will take the unders until the Seminoles can score 17 points again.
They have not done that since the first game against Georgia Tech, and they have not scored more than 21 since beating Florida last year.
2. Wyoming at New Mexico
Line:Ā Point Total 60.5
Prediction:Ā Over
If this week’s picks are going to be weird, I am going all the way.
Happy to see my yearly pick for spite. I am going back to the over because of the same reason I liked it on a New Mexico game (more on that in a moment).
Ninety points were scored between New Mexico and New Mexico State. The score between New Mexico and Air Force was 89, and the score between Utah State and the other team was 95. Those were the three Lobo games before last week.
This year, six of New Mexico’s eight games had more than 60.5 points. Fresno State’s 38ā21 win over New Mexico didn’t, but 59 points was definitely in the ballpark.
Of course, my first choice last week was the over in the game between New Mexico and Colorado State, and…
1. UCLA at Nebraska
Line:Ā Nebraska -7
Prediction:Ā Nebraska
Hey, Big Red! I truly feel bad for having hurt your feelings…
Something mysterious is going on here. This season I have been really good with the top ten picks, but EVERY WEEK my number one pick is not only wrong, it is hilariously big-time wrong.
The over was 62.5 last week, and… 17. Colorado State to New Mexico 6.
Please save yourself and fade. You should never mess with a streak, so I will not be upset.
But I have to make a choice. Sorry Nebraska fans, I do not believe that UCLA changed after beating Rutgers by three and losing to Minnesota by four.
First, the Husker offense steps up and 1) makes the team bowl-eligible. Second, they do it by more than seven points.
Please. Get rid of this awful curse.
