Things always work out in the end and go back to normal.
There is always a joke, a surprise, and at least one mistake that makes everything right in the world. Usually there are two after the first one.
Or maybe strange things really do happen in this new era of college sports.
Do you think that the College Football Playoff committee did not like Florida State last year? What happens if a bunch of teams that are not usually in the 12 team league show up?
No, we are not talking about Liberty in 2023. That team went 13-0 during the regular season but finished 23rd in the CFP rankings because it did not play anyone tough.
There are six teams below that really have real chances to get one of the 12 spots. They all have real wins and records.
No Power Five (now Power Four) team that ended with 11 wins would have been left out of the current format in the ten years of the College Football Playoff.
Only Pitt, which finished with less than 10 wins in 2021, would have been left out because Cincinnati was in at the 4.
These five teams should all be in the running for a spot in the college football playoffs until the very end.
5. Army vs Navy winner
Record: Army 6-0, Navy 5-0
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 13-0 for each
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Slim for Navy, Possible for Army
Remaining Games
Army: East Carolina, Air Force, at North Texas, Notre Dame, UTSA, Navy
Navy: Charlotte, Notre Dame, at Rice, at USF, Tulane, at East Carolina, Army
What happens if Army and Navy play twice?
The details are a mess, to begin.
Let us say that after November 30, both the Army and the Navy are 11-0. On December 7, they would play for the American Athletic Conference title.
The next day, the College Football Playoff pairings would be announced, and the winner between Army and Navy would almost certainly be the Group of Five champion and get an automatic bid.
So, that is pretty much it. Army vs. Navy is only going to be a practice game on December 14.
Let us get real now.
Both groups play Notre Dame. The Irish will not completely ruin either team’s chances of winning the CFP, but they can make things harder.
Navy beat Memphis 56–44, and now it plays Tulane. Other than ND, it does not have any Power Five games at this point.
Army, on the other hand, has probably not played a team that will go bowling yet. It does not play Tulane or Memphis, and besides the Irish and maybe North Texas, it does not play a team that should get the committee’s attention.
Here’s how to make this worse.
As long as neither team has lost in the AAC title game, they are in the College Football Playoff. Do not pass go or earn any NIL money. It is done.
It will have to hope that either Boise State or UNLV, the Mountain West champion, is not 12-1 if either of them is the 11-1 league champion.
It all comes down to the Notre Dame game. It is game on if either of them wins.
4. SMU
Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-2
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Lukewarm but if it goes 11-1, in.
Remaining Games: at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, Boston College, at Virginia, Cal
SMU can absolutely find its way into the College Football Playoff.
SMU does not play Miami or Clemson. First, take that huge break. Then, remember that bad game against Florida State a few weeks ago. But the big step forward was the 34–27 win at Louisville.
It looks like the 18–15 loss to BYU was not so bad after all, and the rest of the schedule is not easy, but it is not too bad either.
A wake-up call is almost certain if the Mustangs make it to the ACC Championship, but if they are 11–2, they have a real chance to sneak in.
If it is 11-1 and does not make it to the ACC title game (Miami and Clemson do not play during the regular season), then you can be sure it will. There is no way that the CFP could leave out a Power Four team that is 11-1. If the Mustangs are 10–2, then no.
3. Washington State
Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-1
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Probably better than you think.
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at San Diego State, Utah State, at New Mexico, at Oregon State, Wyoming
Washington State would be the sentimental choice after losing its conference, but …
It is really bad that there is not a conference title to play for.
These two wins are better than most teams can claim. The Cougars beat a good Texas Tech team 37-16 and beat Washington 24-19. What about the one blip? It is okay that they lost 45–24 at Boise State.
Most likely, they will be ahead the rest of the way, but it will be hard to beat Oregon State on the road. To be honest, though, I think they will lose all of their final games against Mountain West teams by more than 10 points.
Again, there is not a conference title to play for, but 11-1 with two great Power 4 wins might be enough to sneak in if there are not a lot of 10-2 Power Four teams also in the running.
2. Iowa
Record: 4-2
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 10-2
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Decent
Remaining Games: at Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, at UCLA, at Maryland, Nebraska
Iowa can get into the College Football Playoff, but it needs help.
For the rest of the season, the Hawkeyes should be favorites in every game. It might even be better if they do not make it to the Big Ten Championship.
They surely want to win the Big Ten title, but Ohio State, Oregon, or any other team that got in would likely beat them. But at 10-2, they might just get in if there are not many other ten-win deals.
Also, it would help a lot if the two loses looked less bad. It would be great for Iowa if Iowa State won the CFP and Ohio State blew past everyone else after their loss to Oregon. Especially if Ohio State was the Big 12 winner.
1. Texas A&M
Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-1
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Solid, but there’s work to do
Remaining Games: at Mississippi State, LSU, at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn, Texas
If Texas A&M owns home, it’s in the College Football Playoff.
The chances got a lot better after the 41-10 win over Missouri.
For Texas A&M, there is no game against Georgia. That means there is no Tennessee, Alabama, or Ole Miss. You have Texas and LSU. Texas is the last game of the regular season, and LSU is at home in three weeks.
South Carolina could mess this up in Columbia on November 2, and Auburn could do something unexpected. But as long as Notre Dame keeps winning, which it will, that first loss will be forgotten.
At 10–2, A&M is close, but not quite. They are in at 11–1.