It’s an interesting matchup that should be worth the midday watch.
Louisiana lost the Sun Belt title, but it was fantastic all year, and with the system in place, it was on track for ten wins and fringe CFP dreams if a number of factors aligned. Whatever the case, it was a year in which the program turned a corner after a few seasons of underperformance under Billy Napier.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost their last two bowl games, after winning seven of their first nine appearances.
TCU has returned to a bowl game for the first time since losing the national championship to Georgia two seasons ago. It quietly pulled off a fantastic finish, winning five of its last six games, including victories over Utah, Texas Tech, and Arizona.
TCU vs Louisiana: How to Watch the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, Game Preview
Date: Saturday, December 28, 2024
Game Time: 2:15 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Teams: TCU (8-4), Louisiana (10-3)
Why Louisiana Will Win
The Ragin’ Cajuns have GOT to control third down.
TCU does a lot of things well, but the defense struggles to stop third downs and, overall, does not care about the time of possession battle. Louisiana needs to keep the ball for at least 33 minutes, preferably 35.
That, and winning the turnover battle, are required. The Ragin’ Cajuns do not turn the ball over and have forced 20 takeaways, including two or more in six of the last seven regular season games, thanks to an attacking style that produces big plays. TCU has a high turnover rate, but…
Why TCU Will Win
Louisiana’s defense also struggles on third downs.
TCU may throw a lot and should gain at least 300 yards, but everything is dependent on whether or not the ground game is effective. The Horned Frogs are 7-0 when rushing for more than 105 yards and 8-1 when rushing for more than 66.
Louisiana stuffed Southern Miss, and that was it. Everyone else rushed for 68 yards or more against a defense that allowed 4.6 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs can be run wild. Louisiana needs to reach 200 yards to succeed, but…
TCU vs Louisiana: Who Will Win?
Can Louisiana crank up all parts of its high-powered offense? Yes, it needs to run, and yes, it needs to control the game, but it can throw, too.
Here’s the problem for the Ragin’ Cajuns – TCU isn’t losing all that much. It’ll be without a few decent offensive parts – missing C James Brockermeyer to Miami should matter a bit – but the offense should set a pace Louisiana might not be able to match.
The TCU defense will have problems, and this should be a high-scoring game, but Louisiana will blink late in the third quarter. The Big 12 team will pull away late.
TCU vs Louisiana Isleta New Mexico Bowl Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: TCU 45, Louisiana 30
Line: TCU -10, o/u: 58.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 3.5
– Isleta New Mexico Expert Picks and Predictions
