Alright, Boise State. Prove that you belong.
Everyone is already talking about how the Mountain West team received the third seed despite finishing ninth in the final CFP rankings and Penn State fourth.
If the Broncos can pull off this feat and advance to the CFP final four, it will be a watershed moment for Boise State, the Group of Five programs, and college football in general.
Penn State easily defeated SMU in the first round of the CFP, and James Franklin STILL receives no credit for his ability to win “the big ones.”
No matter how you slice it, beat Boise State and Penn State will have its first 13-win season in 131 years of college football.
Penn State vs Boise State CFP: How to Watch the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Game Preview
Date: Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Teams: Penn State (12-2), Boise State (12-1)
Penn State and Boise State Bowl History
– Along with rolling past SMU 38-10 in the first round of the CFP this year – That is not technically a bowl game, but it counts – the Nittany Lions have struggled in bowl games recently, going 7-7 since 2007. They are now 32-20-2 in postseason play. Head coach James Franklin is 7-6 in bowl games and 5-5 at Penn State.
– Boise State is the winningest program in the College Football Playoff era that didn’t make the CFP – Until now. Like Penn State, it has struggled in bowl games in recent seasons after going 6-1 from 2009 to 2015. It is 13-8 all-time in bowling and 2-3 in the last five.
Penn State vs Boise State CFP Weather Forecast
Glendale, Arizona. That does not mean it will always be warm in late December, but it is expected to be a perfect 63 degrees outside at game time – and the roof closes.
Penn State vs Boise State CFP All-Time Record
This is the first meeting of the two teams.
Why Boise State Will Win
Maddux Madsen is better than you think, primarily because you probably do not know who he is if you do not follow Boise State football.
Ashton Jeanty is the star – he received my Heisman vote, by the way – but Boise State has a strong defense, a good receiving corps, and Madsen is a sharp passer who threw 22 touchdown passes with only three interceptions.
The O will move as long as he can get the ball out of his hands quickly and live to fight another day by throwing a few passes.
Then there is the defense. It is the unknown part of it all: Boise State had a month to rest and recover.
Penn State is relatively healthy going into this, but the teams that had time off – Ohio State and Notre Dame – were on their second week. Those two might be just as talented, but they looked and played a half-beat faster.
This is Penn State’s 15th game. Every game counts when it comes to wear and tear, no matter how good or deep the team is.
Why Penn State Will Win
Penn State should be fine with the ten-day gap between the SMU game and this. And now for the run defense.
Stop it, Ashton Jeanty – as if that is not something everyone does. But there is a difference between San Jose State, Nevada, and Utah State attempting to D up on the superstar and Penn State demonstrating what it can do.
And, while Oregon is pretty good and lost by two, the Nittany Lion defense is even better against the run than the Ducks. It begins with a killer in Abdul Carter on one side, strong tackling at all levels, and a line that should hold up well.
USC averaged nearly eight yards per carry against Penn State thanks to a few big plays, Oregon ran for 183 yards in the Big Ten Championship, and Ohio State ran for 176. No one else scored more than 121 on the Nittany Lions, and only five teams reached 100.
Penn State vs Boise State CFP: Who Will Win?
The world is assuming Boise State will buckle under the pressure of Penn State’s defense in the season’s biggest game. If the Nittany Lions win big, it will be because they are that good.
Penn State was underwhelming at times this season, but it demonstrated its offense against Oregon, defense against Ohio State, and SMU, and it will be methodical in how it does what it does to pull this off and move on.
But not before Boise State makes this difficult.
The Broncos will mount two early scoring drives, Jeanty will break free just enough to be effective, and this will be a ballgame. However, the Penn State lines will be too good over the entire four quarters.
It will take some time to get there, but Penn State will have the advantage of pressure and time.
Penn State vs Boise State CFP Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: Penn State 30, Boise State 23
Line: Penn State -11, o/u: 53.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5
– Vrbo Fiesta Expert Picks and Predictions COMING
