Baylor quietly had a fantastic season, while LSU loudly had a mediocre one.
The Bears started 2-5 and were headed nowhere, with the Hail Mary loss to Colorado contributing to that. Then everything clicked. The offense was excellent, the defense adequate, and the team went on a six-game winning streak to finish.
On the other hand, LSU overcame a late loss to USC to win six straight, then blew it with three straight strange losses before closing with two good wins. Brian Kelly was not hired to coach in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl, despite a respectable record.
Baylor has won four of its last six bowl games, but lost the last one to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces. LSU has won five of its last six games and seven of its last nine, including the national championship in 2019.
LSU is 3-8 all-time against Baylor, but they have not played since 1985.
LSU vs Baylor: How to Watch the Kinder’s Texas Bowl, Game Preview
Date: Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Teams: LSU (8-4), Baylor (8-4)
Why Baylor Will Win
LSU is missing a lot. That is typical for the program when it is not in the CFP, which is every year except for the 2019 season, but this version is not good enough to lose the majority of its top offensive linemen, leading receiver Kyren Lacy, and several other key players.
Despite having everyone in place, LSU remains inconsistent. For better or worse, Baylor does not have many players who can transfer or opt out. It is relatively intact, including an offensive line that is done an excellent job of keeping QB Sawyer Robertson from being sacked.
The ground game has dominated everything behind the BU line. The team is 6-0 when running for more than 170 yards and 8-1 when running for more than 108 yards, with the only loss coming against Colorado. But …
Why LSU Will Win
This season, the Big 12 simply did not perform well. Yes, Baylor won a lot late, but it was not like playing in the Southeastern Conference.
And, yes, LSU is missing a number of components, but the lateness of this bowl helps. Kelly and the coaching staff appeared to have put together a decent starting five for the offensive line, the passing game should be solid, with QB Garrett Nussmeier good enough to compensate for the hit-or-miss running attack, and overall, it is still LSU.
The talent is still present.
LSU’s offense excels on third downs and should continue to press the Baylor secondary for the entire four quarters. Baylor does not grind the clock, but D is about to be taxed.
LSU vs Baylor: Who Will Win?
Turnovers. It may appear simple, but that is most likely the case.
When neither team commits a turnover, they both go 4-0. The difference is that Baylor enforces takeaways, whereas LSU does not. LSU is also 4-0 when forcing multiple turnovers; Baylor is 4-1 when doing so.
Overall, the SEC has outperformed the Big 12 this bowl season; LSU has more overall athleticism and should have a decent defensive front to hold up; and, again, with the conference-shaming, Baylor’s second-half wins were not particularly impressive.
This will be one of LSU’s “find a way” games. It will not be easy, but it will get done.
LSU vs Baylor Kinder’s Texas Bowl Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: LSU 34, Baylor 27
Line: Baylor -3.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3.5
– Kinder’s Texas Expert Picks and Predictions COMING
