Liberty vs. Buffalo: Bahamas Bowl Prediction and Betting Lines

This is the last of the regular bowls.

The Bahamas Bowl was previously the first out of the gate, but it is now at the end to make travel arrangements easier. But after that, we have two College Football Playoff semifinals and a national championship, which concludes the season.

Liberty’s last bowl game was a 45-6 loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. It has a 3-2 bowl record in its short history, and it now has a chance to turn things around after a disastrous season.

It was supposed to be a contender for the CFP, but it has lost three of its last six games, including the regular season finale against Sam Houston.

Buffalo was not expected to do much in Pete Lembo’s first year, but it started strong, overcame a stumbling block, and won its final four games to advance.

It is only their seventh bowl appearance, and their first since defeating Georgia Southern in the 2022 Camellia. After losing its first three bowl games, Buffalo has won its last three.

Buffalo vs Liberty: How to Watch the Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts, Game Preview

Date: Friday, January 3, 2025
Game Time: 11:00 am ET
How To Watch: ESPN2
Venue: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau
Teams: Buffalo (8-4), Liberty (8-3)

Why Liberty Will Win

Gear down and grind it out.

Liberty has a significant personnel issue with lost parts, but it still has plenty of strong parts to pull this off. However, Buffalo does nothing with the time of possession battle, and the Flames are adept at controlling the ball and the clock.

It starts with making midrange passes and converting on third downs. Liberty typically operates at a moderate pace, and the addition of Ryan Burger at quarterback will not result in a significant shift in style.

He did not play much at Appalachian State, and he only threw seven passes for the Flames this season, but he made his throws. Liberty is 9-0 when it makes more than 55% of its throws, but 0-3 when it doesn’t.

Buffalo allows teams to complete 63% of their passes, but…

Why Buffalo Will Win

The Bulls have two of the best linebackers you have probably never seen, and they are expected to play.

Shaun Dolac seemed to tackle everything, finishing the season with 159 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, and five interceptions. Red Murdock got to everything else with 143 tackles, two sacks, and 14 tackles for loss.

This can always change at the last second, but Buffalo does not appear to be missing much, if anyone. Liberty star quarterback Kaidon Salter has moved on to Colorado, top running back Quinton Cooley has left, and the offensive line needs to be retooled.

This is where Dolac and Murdock step in. UB is 8-0 when limiting opponents to less than 200 rushing yards and 0-4 when allowing more.

Cooley’s loss of 1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns, combined with Salter’s absence, will require a committee to maintain the ground attack.

Buffalo vs Liberty: Who Will Win?

The system that produced the second-highest number of rushing yards in America will continue to work.

Buffalo may have more parts and an offense capable of keeping up for a while, but the Flames will get enough from all of their backs to reach 200 yards.

UB is well coached and will have its moments, but Liberty will come out strong with a ground game capable of moving the chains.

It will appear that the Liberty offense is always on the field.