It is generally a good sign when I get the weeknight picks wrong.
Army’s defense against Temple was a layup, but I did not think it would score much.
Although I do not think Miami is that good, I foolishly thought it would cover against Virginia Tech, which it did not do in a game with few points. Similarly, I was wrong on Washington/Rutgers, which was more or less a coin flip.
The warm-ups are over for now.
It is been a strange week, in part because the weather messed up the numbers.
Just so you know, I do not really love any of these picks—I was in LOVE with Army—but I need to get this done, so here are the ten best college football predictions ever—at least for this week.
10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 5
10. WKU at Boston College
Line: Boston College -8
Pick: Boston College
I am going with the idea that the market is overreacting for the first few picks. Since Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos is out, the line drops to 7.5 in some places and 8.5 in others, for a total of 8.
The faith in this brave WKU team does not change, even though they came back to beat a good Toledo team last week. The BC defense should be strong, and the Hilltopper run defense, which is weak, will have trouble.
9. Air Force at Wyoming
Line: Point Total 33.5
Pick: Over
I am being tricked here, I KNOW it. If the world gives you a college football point total of 33.5, you go over and hope for the best. If it does not work out, you move on to something else.
Wyoming is really bad and has not scored more than 17 points yet, and Air Force has only scored 10 points in its last two games. Watch out, because the end score could be 13–6 but…
It adds up to 33.5 points. Wyoming gave up more than that in all three of its wins against FBS teams. On the other side of this…
8. Cincinnati at Texas Tech
Line: Point Total 59.5
Pick: Over
You should always go with the first answer in this case. I first thought that this game would be played with each team in the 1930s. Cincinnati has not scored less than 27 points yet, Texas Tech’s offense is on fire, and…
Getting to 60 points is hard, but Texas Tech scored 30 or more in three of its four games. Against Washington State, it got stuck because it kept making mistakes.
That is why it is so low: this is more of a guess than a study, so to make up for it…
7. Georgia at Alabama
Line: Georgia -1
Pick: Georgia
I told a lie. I go from a small guess to a much bigger one.
I really think this could be the first of three games between these two teams. I love Alabama. I also think this Georgia team gets it.
Do not get too upset about the Kentucky show. When they had to, the Dawgs stepped it up, and their defense was fine. In Round 1, they will show everyone that team that slammed Clemson in the second half in Week 1.
6. UMass at Miami University
Line: Miami University -16.5
Pick: Miami University
Why not? Here I am going with my gut feelings, so here’s another one. I promise there is a good reason for No. 5.
Last year, Miami University dominated the MAC, going 12–0 and winning the league title. This version could be even better, but Northwestern beat them in a strange game in Week 1, they beat a good Cincinnati team, and they beat a mad Notre Dame team in South Bend.
This MAC favorite is now going to get mad at the Minuteman defense. The RedHawks need to step up their game. The defense will be great.