Prediction, Game Analysis, and Betting Odds for Minnesota vs. Illinois

Minnesota is important again all of a sudden.

It might not win the Big Ten, but it can make a lot of noise with three straight wins and games against Penn State and Wisconsin after going to Rutgers. Now, though, the first of three road games in the last four games starts.

Illinois may have lost to Oregon, but it is already in a bowl game, three of its last four games are in Illinois, and it should be the favorite to win the rest of its games, which are against Michigan State, at Rutgers, and Northwestern.

Minnesota vs Illinois Preview

Minnesota vs Illinois How to Watch
Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
How to Watch: FS1
Illinois (6-2), Minnesota (5-3)

Why Minnesota Will Win

So what is going on with Minnesota’s play late?

Since the last few minutes of the Michigan game, the midrange passing game has been like a light has been turned on for the last three games.

Moving the chains was not easy against USC, but Max Brosmer has been great at converting third downs over the last few games. Against Maryland, he threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns.

No matter how well Illinois plays, they are terrible at stopping the offense on third down. This method works for the Gophers.

Keep winning third downs and forcing turnovers—they have only given the ball once in their last three games, for a plus-7 turnover margin. But…

Why Illinois Will Win

Illinois does not have a lot of staff turnover.

Even though they turned the ball over twice against Oregon, they are still +6 for the season. Luke Altmyer needs to be very patient and careful with this.

While Minnesota might not score 48 points like it did against Maryland, it will make the most of every big play and chance.

Illinois is 5-0 when it does not turn the ball over more than once and 1-2 when it does. Those are the only three times the Illini lost the turnover margin. The bad news is that Minnesota is 0-3 when it does not win the turnover margin.

Also, the Minnesota defense is great overall, but terrible on third downs and…

Minnesota vs Illinois: Who Will Win

The Vikings do not have a running game.

Because of that, this team is not the same as the ones that worked under PJ Fleck in the past. The last few Gopher teams could hit the ball hard and keep the clock running.

This one can not do that. Illinois, on the other hand, has a big problem against the run, but that will not be a big deal here.

To drive this point home even more, the team that wins the turnover battle wins this.