Donald Trump’s angry threat to impose 25% tariffs on all U.S. imports from Mexico, delivered Monday in the cautious diplomatic language of a Truth Social rant, is widely regarded as a bluff.
Trump stated that once in the White House, he will impose tariffs unless Mexico stops migrants and fentanyl from “pouring” into the US. As a ruse, the tactic could theoretically persuade Mexico to halt the migrant flow, allowing Trump to reduce tariffs later while bragging that he has already bent Mexico to his will at the border.
But while people try to figure out what Trump means, they are missing an important fact about his new move: It all starts with a lie.
This lie is right in front of you: the idea that Trump’s threat of tariffs is what needs to happen because Mexico is not doing anything to stop migrants from coming.
Here, we get a sneak peek at how he plans to trick voters about some of his most harmful ideas, whether they are about tariffs or immigration.
All of this was made clear by the harsh response that new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum gave to Trump’s threat on Tuesday.
Her harsh claim that American guns being sent to Mexico are fueling crime and violence there among drug gangs that sell drugs in the U.S. is getting a lot of attention.
“Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence that results from meeting the drug demand in yours,” Sheinbaum said sharply.
He was suggesting that the fact that the problems in both countries are connected shows how important it is to work together across borders instead of fighting like Trump wants to do.
That is a harsh attack on Trump’s whole view of the world. But this dry piece of bureaucracy is also important to note:
You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico-United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.
This polite (and euphemistic) language means that Mexico is already doing a lot to stop migrants from entering our country from south of Mexico.
Sheinbaum says that this is one reason why the number of people caught crossing the US border has dropped so sharply recently.
It is darkly funny that Sheinbaum would use U.S. statistics to make this point, since Trump does not believe that the reality that our own data shows even exists.
During the fall campaign, Trump kept telling the lie that our “open” border was being destroyed by a world-historical invasion, even though the number of arrests dropped to levels that were similar to those seen during his presidency.
According to the most recent numbers, fear hit a new low in November under Biden. It was even lower than it had been in some months under Trump.
Part of the reason those numbers are so low is because of Mexico. A human rights group called Washington Office on Latin America’s Adam Isacson keeps an eye on migration.
He made a chart using data from the Mexican government that shows the point.
It shows that Mexican police have been stopping tens of thousands of people trying to get to the U.S. through Mexico every month, and sometimes over 100,000, up until August, the last month for which data is available:
Isacson shows that Biden’s CBP One app is another important thing that keeps people from crossing the border illegally. This app lets migrants make appointments to enter temporarily through different programs in a legal and orderly way.
Trump will also end that program, which is one reason why fewer people are crossing the border. This is because his main goal is not to secure the border, but to have fewer immigrants come here.
The reporting backs up the bigger picture. The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal both report that the Mexican government is running complex security operations to send people who are trying to get to the U.S. border back through Mexico.
The Post says that this is what people in Mexico call “El Carrousel,” which means “the merry-go-round.”
Some experts say that Biden’s private talks with Mexico’s former president were a key part of making all of that happen.
Isacson says that this year’s lower number of arrests is due in large part to cooperation, Biden’s recent restrictions on asylum seekers, and the CBP One app program.
Isacson told me, “If Trump wants Mexico to do more to stop people from coming into the country illegally, then Biden has already gotten Mexico to do that more than anyone else has ever done.” He did it without using tariffs.
During the campaign, Trump pretended that none of that was going on. This is one of MAGA’s biggest lies, and his latest trick keeps it going.
Using tariffs to force Mexico to stop letting migrants in is meant to make it look like Mexico is not doing anything right now—Trump might even say it is taking advantage of us—and only his scary threats can get it to give in.
This huge scam is not getting enough attention. A lot of it is about what might happen if tariffs are put in place, like how they could mess up trade across the Americas and make things very hard for U.S. industries.
It makes sense, since the damage could be very bad, but you can read whole articles about this that do not say that Mexico is already doing a lot of the things Trump wants it to do, or that this was apparently done without any Trump-style bluster.
All of this makes it possible for bigger lies to happen later. You can be sure that the lower apprehension numbers will become real as soon as Trump takes office.
Fox News will start talking about them a lot, and Trump will say that his strength has made the border safe. In fact, Trump may think that his current threat of tariffs is what “forced” Mexico to lower the number of people crossing the border.
It is very upsetting that Sheinbaum’s statement—which seems to be partially aimed at Americans—is a much more honest attempt to explain the situation across the border than anything our new president has said.
All of this makes me think that we might not be ready for the storm of propaganda that is about to hit us.