CFP Semifinal, Orange Bowl Prediction, and Betting Lines for Notre Dame vs. Penn State

There is no such thing as a cheap path to the College Football Playoff in the new expanded era. Winning two games against teams capable of making the top 12 is impressive in any case.

But let us be honest here. For the first two games, the Penn State kid’s table served chicken nuggets and juice boxes.

SMU and Boise State were fine teams with successful seasons, but it is not the same as beating Indiana – yes, Indiana was very good – and Georgia, as Notre Dame did. (Forget about Ohio State’s path to play Tennessee and Oregon.)

Whatever. The Nittany Lions did it; they proved they could win big games – more specifically, James Franklin won two big games – and now they have a fun matchup against the hottest team in college football.

The Irish are on a 12-game winning streak, Penn State is fine despite losing the Big Ten Championship, and one of these two is just 60 minutes away from competing for the national championship.

Notre Dame vs Penn State: How to Watch the Capital One Orange Bowl, CFP Semifinal Game Preview

Date: Thursday, January 9, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Teams: Notre Dame (13-1), Penn State (13-2)

Notre Dame and Penn State Bowl History

– With the two victories in the new College Football Playoff, the Irish have now won five straight post-season games. The last loss was a gag to Oklahoma State in the 2022 Fiesta after Marcus Freeman was thrown into the job at the last moment.

This is the program’s sixth trip to Orange. The two biggest were back-to-back games against Colorado, where the Buffs lost the national championship in 1990. More famously, it lost due to a phantom clip call on a Rocket Ismail return for a score, giving Colorado and Georgia Tech a share of the national championship.

– This is Penn State’s sixth trip to the Orange Bowl going 4-1 in the previous five tries. The lone loss was to Oklahoma after the 1985 season in what became the national championship. The two teams played in the 1976 Gator Bowl – it was a 20-9 Notre Dame win.

Notre Dame vs Penn State Weather Forecast

It’s not always guaranteed that Miami weather will be ideal in early January. It’ll be for this. The temperature should be around 70 degrees by game time.

Notre Dame vs Penn State All-Time Record

9-9-1. There were a few memorable moments, the most significant of which was Penn State’s 35-13 victory in 1991, but nothing like this will happen again. Penn State won 31-10 the last time these two teams met, in 2007. Notre Dame won the first meeting 14-7 in 1913.

Why Penn State Will Win

Notre Dame is severely beaten. It’s amazing how the Irish keep going despite so many injuries.

They entered the College Football Playoff with a strong starting 22 but virtually no depth in some positions. They survived Georgia, despite the loss of DT Rylie Mills to a knee injury. Jeremiyah Love, the star running back, should be fine, but he’s not 100 percent after hurting his leg in the quarterfinals.

To make matters worse, the horrific attack in New Orleans took away a day of rest, which is exacerbated by the fact that these two teams face off in the first of two CFP semifinals. Penn State will have more than two days to rest and prepare.

Penn State’s offense has been adequate on the ground, but it is the defense that has performed admirably. Three takeaways against SMU, four against Boise State, and three interceptions in its last four games – the defense is suffocating.

Despite star Abdul Carter’s early arm injury, the run defense held Ashton Jeanty in check in the Fiesta.

Previously, it limited SMU to 58 rushing yards, and it will load everything up to force Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard to make a positive play down the field.

The Irish only had 244 yards of total offense against Georgia, but they capitalized on several key moments to win. Limit turnovers, as the Irish rely on mistakes to score points and win on third downs.

Why Notre Dame Will Win

This has developed into the ultimate find-a-way team.

Yes, it is sorely lacking in the passing game, but it excels on third downs.

Yes, it is overly conservative in general, but the defense is a big play takeaway machine when it matters most.

Yes, it’s incredibly beaten up and beginning to lose too many parts, but the new men up keep stepping up when necessary.

There is nothing fancy here. Identify manageable third-down opportunities, convert, and repeat.

And if there is a takeaway, a big turnover, or a momentum shifter, no one is better at putting the ball in the basket when there is an opportunity to capitalize.

This team doesn’t necessarily play with swagger. It’s as if it knows exactly what it’s capable of and is confident in its ability to devise the strategies required to survive and thrive.

All that, and this defensive back seven does not miss a single tackle. The secondary is physical and consistent, and the line that Georgia should have beaten repeatedly won.

Penn State has explosive talent on both sides of the ball, but it lost to two incredible teams this year: Oregon and Ohio State. It defeated Illinois and Minnesota, but it was a difficult victory.

Including the difficult CFP matchups with Indiana and Georgia, 12 of the 13 victories were by double digits, and Louisville didn’t make it a seven-point game until late.

Notre Dame vs Penn State: Who Will Win?

For a team that doesn’t gain many yards or make big downfield plays, the Irish have a lot of explosion, which sometimes comes from the special teams.

They’re not quite the Dan Campbell Detroit Lions in terms of attitude and aggression, but the Irish do have a fearless streak. It’s as if they’re willing to take a risk, and if it doesn’t work out, they’ll make up for it with a big stop.

It begins with the Irish ground game. Penn State’s two losses occurred when they allowed more than 121 yards – 189 in the win over USC, but 176 yards to Ohio State and 183 to Oregon.

Notre Dame was held to less than 154 yards twice. Georgia and Northern Illinois were the only teams to limit the Irish to less than five yards per carry, while Penn State only allowed USC to run for more than 4.7.

Something needs to give.

The Irish will hold up on the lines, neutralize the backfield plays with a straight ahead power ground attack, and grind the game to their advantage by holding the ball for nearly 35 minutes.

It won’t be spectacular, but the Notre Dame defense will put on another show, making one huge interception in the second half, and kicker Mitch Jeter will have a second consecutive clutch day after hitting all three field goals in the win over Georgia.