Duke vs. Ole Miss: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Predictions and Betting Lines

All of a sudden, the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl will get a bigger stage – and obviously not because of anything remotely positive.

As is, this was becoming one of the more interesting social media games of the bowl season, thanks to Lane Kiffin, the Ole Miss head coach, who appears to believe that the entire College Football Playoff should be made up of SEC teams.

Alabama and South Carolina didn’t help his cause, but a dominant victory would result in one blast of a time across multiple platforms. But first, the Rebels must overcome a dangerous Duke team with a strong defense.

Let’s just say the ACC has struggled a little bit this bowl season—it’s been AWFUL. But Duke is an entertaining team under first-year head coach Manny Diaz; this is only the 17th bowl game in program history, and the team has won five consecutive bowl games since 2014.

The biggest story, however, remains the horrific incident in New Orleans and the ongoing investigation. Forgive me for bringing that up in relation to a football game; the Gator will now be the only bowl game on Thursday, following the Sugar Bowl between Georgia and Notre Dame, which has been moved to Thursday afternoon.

Ole Miss vs Duke: How to Watch the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Thursday, January 2, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Teams: Ole Miss (9-3), Duke (9-3)

Why Duke Will Win

Defense, defense, defense.

This Duke team may not be the most dynamic offensively, but it led the ACC in third-down defense, makes a lot of special teams plays, and is one of the best in the country at producing sacks and tackles for loss.

This is a fast-paced Ole Miss team, so anything that throws them off their rhythm should work.

This is a carefully measured team that is accustomed to having its defense on the field for approximately 33 minutes per game, but that is not happening here.

Ole Miss might have the ball for about 27 minutes. Duke must maintain control of the pace throughout and generate at least two takeaways.

Ole Miss does not turn the ball over often, but there were three turnovers in the loss to Florida, two in the loss to LSU, and Duke forced multiple takeaways eight times. However …

Why Ole Miss Will Win

Duke cannot keep up with any kind of pace.

Maalik Murphy, the starting quarterback, has left for Oregon State, so Henry Belin IV takes over. He has a little experience, but good luck dealing with Ole Miss’ pass rush.

Duke may be among the top three teams in sacks and tackles for loss, but the Rebels are first in both categories. When you combine that with an offense that finished second in the nation and gets almost everyone back for this, you have a problem.

This season, Duke faced two strong offenses. It was hit by 53 points in a loss to Miami and aided by a slew of takeaways in a defeat to SMU.

Ole Miss has recorded 425 yards or more of total offense eight times. Duke is 0-3 when allowing more than 410 and 9-0 when allowing fewer. Although Duke has the potential to be a defensive standout,

Ole Miss vs Duke: Who Will Win?

If Duke wins, it will be its first ten-win season since 2013, and only the second in 103 years of football.

Ole Miss dominated Penn State in last year’s Peach Bowl, and it is aiming for its tenth bowl victory in 13 tries since 2000. Win, and Kiffin will have the winningest two-year streak in school history, surpassing John Vaught’s 1959-1960 seasons.

The ACC will continue to struggle, Kiffin’s team will play even harder – basically, his team is about to walk for all of its coach’s talk – and the SEC team will play too quickly and too effectively.