Here are the 10 best picks against the spread for college football: Week 4

This is amazing.

As promised, I made these picks at 5:13 am on a college football Saturday last week. This week I’m finally getting to them at 5:12 am.

This week I’m ahead. I’m going to try harder.

Things are starting to become real now. There are a lot of easy games in the first three weeks of the season. Always pick against the FBS team that isn’t doing well.

We think we know something now. We know what these teams are like because we’ve seen most of them for three or four weeks. The trends and the way these teams play are clear to us.

Not at all.

I wasn’t going to believe that Appalachian State was that bad, and then South Alabama beat them.

I was sure that Illinois would at least cover against Nebraska. I don’t want to get yelled at by crazy Husker fans, but Nebraska is getting so many pageviews and ratings right now that the media hype didn’t match the team. But I also knew for sure that Washington State would keep San Jose State from scoring…

Sorry about that.

This week, everything is checked again. There are a lot of tough weeks left in the season, but I think I can do better than.500 I got last week.

To put it another way, be careful.

Picks So Far: 27-18

10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 4

Week 4 Expert Picks
Marshall at Ohio State
UCLA at LSU | Iowa at Minnesota
NC State at Clemson | Florida at Miss State
USC at Michigan | Miami Univ at Notre Dame
Utah at Oklahoma St | Tennessee at Oklahoma
Baylor at Colorado | Kansas State at BYU
Michigan State at Boston College

10. Fresno State at New Mexico

Line: Point Total 59.5
Pick: Over

To be able to explain the choice is the whole point. Given that you’ve been following the teams, it should be correct, and if it’s not, it’s not always your fault. Now is one of those times.

The defense in New Mexico is AWFUL. The offense is strong enough to score at least 20 points, and the defense, which gives up 47 points per game, will also help. Fresno State will be able to get at least 40 without having to work hard.

9. ULM at Texas

Line: Point Total 52.5
Pick: Over

There is only one question left: will ULM score? The Warhawks are 2-0, which should be good enough to at least get on the board; the fear is that Texas will win 48–3. However, the Longhorns have already scored 52 points against Colorado State (52-0), and 56 points against UTSA.

And Arch Manning is making his first start. There are going to be fireworks.

8. Villanova at Maryland

Line: Maryland -17.5
Pick: Maryland

Like all games, these FBS vs. FCS ones have a winner and a loser. If the FBS team cares, they’ll beat the FCS team. If they don’t care, things will get too close until the FBS team tries again.

It will get a little easier in Maryland. The Terps have a defense, but it might not matter if they can score about 30 points. It won’t be a complete loss, but a late score should be enough.

7. Charlotte at Indiana

Line: Indiana -28.5
Pick: Indiana

So I’m giving up on my idea that Indiana is good at football now that Curt Cignetti has brought all of his good James Madison players? Not at all.

I’m also not changing my mind about the fact that Charlotte isn’t very good. Then there’s this.

ALL OF THIS IS JUST GUESSWORK. If my guess is correct, Cignetti will want to beat the 49ers by more than 23 points. His old James Madison team beat them by 23 points.

So far, IU has dealt with the 23 in all of their games.