Recent polls show that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are almost tied for the 2024 presidential election in Arizona. Trump has a small edge in most of the polls.
According to the most recent data, Arizona is still a very important battleground state, and immigration is becoming a major problem for voters. The Grand Canyon State is very important for both candidates because it has 11 Electoral College votes. They need 270 electoral votes to win the office.
The most current poll, which was done by AtlasIntel from September 20 to September 25, shows that Trump has a one-point lead over Harris, with 50% to 49%. The poll included 946 potential voters, and there is a 3 point margin of error.
During the same time period, Morning Consult did a poll for Bloomberg News that showed different findings. Out of 926 likely voters, Harris has 50% support, while Trump only has 47%. This is a 3-point win for the vice president.
When the sampling size is increased to 977 registered voters, Harris still has a lead, with 49% of the vote to Trump’s 46%.
From September 20 to September 24, Fox News paid for a study to be done by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research.
Trump had a three-point lead over Harris among 764 potential voters, with 51% to 48%. With a bigger group of 1,021 registered voters, Trump’s lead shrunk to two points, or 50 percent to 48 percent.
From September 21 to September 24, USA Today/Suffolk University did a study that showed Trump with his biggest lead yet in Arizona. Out of 500 voters overall polled, Trump has a 6-point lead with 48% of the vote to 42%. There is a 4.4% chance of mistake in the poll.
As of September 30, the FiveThirtyEight polling average, which takes into account things like how recent the polls are, the size of the samples, the method used, and house effects, gives Trump a narrow 1.1-point lead in Arizona.
Its model says that Trump has 47.9 percent of the vote, while Harris has 46.8 percent.
A poll by USA Today and Suffolk University found that 21% of people said immigration was their main reason for voting.
A poll from Fox News on September 26 found that 56% of people think Trump will do a better job of protecting the border than Harris, while only 41% think Harris is better at this problem.
Harris’s campaign stop at the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27, the same day the USA Today/Suffolk University poll came out, showed how important immigration is in Arizona.
Harris’ main immigration strategy is to bring back the bipartisan border bill that was stopped this year by Senate Republicans.
The Hispanic vote could be very important in Arizona; according to the study, Harris has 47% of the support of this group of voters, while Trump only has 35%. There are about 1.3 million Hispanic votes in Arizona, which is about a quarter of all voters in the state.
Arizona’s race for president is very different from the state’s race for senator.
A poll released by Fox News on September 26 shows that Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego has a large lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake. Gallego has 55% of potential voters and 56% of registered voters on his side, while Lake has only 42% of both groups.
A poll from Fox News also shows that a lot of people are going to vote for more than one candidate.
They are 16 points more likely to vote for Gallego over Harris, and they are 10 points more likely to do the same for Republicans. Only 3% of those who answered the poll said they were voting for both Harris and Lake.