I have a confession to make: I’m a huge nerd. (Okay, maybe that wasn’t a surprise for you.) A recent outlet of my nerdiness has been playing Topps BUNT, an app made by the iconic baseball card brand in which I collect digital baseball cards. Every day I log in and complete little tasks to gain in-game currency, which lets me open packs of digital baseball cards, which I can use in daily fantasy sports contests, earning me more in-game currency, which I spend on…..you get it. If you’ve ever been hooked on an app, you understand.

But some people play this game totally differently than I do. They skip out on all the tasks and events and instead pour hundreds of real dollars into their account each month, building mammoth collections and increasing their odds to pull higher-tier cards out of the packs. They buy and sell these cards on eBay — again, for actual real American dollars. While we are both operating in the same app, they are playing a totally different game than I am. 

This reflects the dual element of the sports trading card industry, which is famously cyclical and currently in a boom. The industry previously collapsed in the 1990’s “junk wax” era, when cardmakers flooded the market with mediocre products in an attempt to keep up with the hype. The fun of collecting eroded, and the investors bailed as the bubble burst. 

The hobby has reached new heights in recent years, fueled by young superstars like Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mahomes, and Zion Williamson, along with other modern trends like “pack-breaking” videos on social media. Sports trading cards can break the cycle and find sustained success if the industry can find a way to deliver a compelling product to both of its two different types of customers. 

College sports — long-overlooked by collectors and cardmakers — is an area of untapped potential to create this balance. Topps believes this to be the case, as the sports cards giant is investing heavily in college sports. It is embracing the NIL era, recently acquiring the licenses for many Division I schools. Now that student athletes have earned the right to license their name, image, and likeness, college football trading cards can be one of the tools the industry can use to break its boom-or-bust cycle and create balance between the hobbyists and the investors.

The card industry has attempted forays into the college football world before, to limited success. Cards could only be created once a player was in the pros, so the products were already outdated by the time they were released. Panini sold school-specific boxes for a few seasons in the mid-2010’s; these cards featured school legends and current professional players in all sports. For instance, an LSU fan could collect a set that had Alex Bregman, Shaquille O’Neal, and Odell Beckham Jr. in it. But these collections faded quickly; they held little appeal for investors, and without interest from both elements of the card industry, they were doomed for obscurity. 

College athletes earning their “NIL” rights will change everything. Cards of current college players will now carry appeal not just for collectors and fans of schools, but also investors and people who chase rookie cards. I spoke with Andrew Durst, a collector who runs the YouTube channel Acme Packs, and he was bullish about the prospect of NIL opening a new market for college football cards.

“I think they’ll actually carve out a very good niche with the new NIL deal coming through,” Durst said. “Now with these NIL deals, you can get these players two to three years before their cards come to the NFL market.” 

Bobby and Brian Strandt, the brothers behind the YouTube channel Barbell Breaks, are also excited at the prospect of this new era of cards. The brothers have a growing presence in the cards industry, as Brian (also known as Packer Cards 87) has over 93,000 subscribers on his channel while Bobby (also known as 5-0Cheddar Bob) has nearly 23,000.

“I’m just picturing a Vince Young card of him running for that touchdown against USC to win the championship with his autograph on there,” Bobby said. “That would be sweet!”

In the past, college football cards either had licensed school logos but could not use current players, like some Panini products. Or, they were recent NFL draftees in college uniforms, with the logos and team names photoshopped out, featured on products from companies like Leaf and SAGE. With NIL rights, and with Topps recently acquiring the licensing rights of many D1 schools through a collaboration with Fanatics, cards will be designed that feature current players in full-fledged, bona fide jerseys and helmets, in all their collegiate glory. Take Bobby’s example: A Vince Young and CJ Stroud autograph series would attract the whales, while college football fans would be happy to collect Xavier Worthy and TreVeyon Henderson cards. 

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 Many of you collected cards in childhood, or through adolescence, or maybe even into adulthood as you gained more disposable income. It is easy to understand the appeal: cards are aesthetically pleasing, fans can collect their favorite team or player, the anticipation and dopamine hit of opening a pack, the adrenaline of pulling a rare card, the satisfaction of completing a set or collection goal, and so on. 

If you were like me, you were all-in on baseball cards as a kid. Maybe you had a little three-ring binder where you organized your cards by year, or by team, or by set. Maybe you had sleeves for your nice cards and those sturdy plastic holders for your absolute favorite collectibles. You probably traded cards with your friends, and you looked up their values in the Beckett Card Monthly, and you visited local card shops to get packs or choice singles. You tilted the cards just right to make the holograms move, and you read the stats on the back so much you practically committed them to memory. 

But as you got older, things got a little more cynical. Packs started to get smaller, but more expensive. What once cost $1 for 11 cards was now $4 for four cards, but hey, there was a one-in-2,000 chance of pulling a Jay Buhner autograph. Cards had pieces of jersey in them and cost hundreds of dollars. Who were these for? Not for kids and fans. Did the adults who bought all the packs up trying to find a Kerry Wood rookie card like collecting? Did they even like baseball? The passionate fans and casual hobbyists were pushed out by investors, and the market flooded with supply. The hobby became impenetrable for someone looking to have a fun time at a reasonable cost.

The modern card industry is better positioned to avoid a complete and total bubble collapse. Social media and YouTube can keep collectors interested in the hobby even when not spending money. Buying and selling cards is easier than ever thanks to eBay and other outlets, so collectors don’t have to drive to weird conventions at a strange hotel ballroom to search for desirable cards. But most importantly, cardmakers will need to make sound strategic decisions for the interests of both collectors and investors, and the NIL era gives them an opportunity to create that balance for the long-term health of the hobby.

NIL is bringing football cards into a new era of investment opportunity, but it is a still-untapped market for the diehard fans and collectors. College sports fans are some of the most passionate and dedicated fanbases in sports, and there would be an appeal for team-oriented sets for all types of collectors.

“I think that’s gonna boil down to the size of the school,” Brian Strandt said of the possibility of team-oriented sets. “Alabama is a good example, if you pick out the teams that have a solid fan base, there could be a decent amount of desirability there.” 

Most importantly, the cards need to have appeal more than just scratcher tickets featuring pictures of potential one-day NFL stars. The cards themselves have to be appealing and the sets have to be fun to collect. 2022 Topps Bowman University, the iconic company’s first foray into the NIL market, represents a step in the right direction. On his YouTube channel Acme Packs, Durst has opened a few of these boxes of the product. He has been pleasantly surprised with this line and will be looking for similar college products in the future, adding that the early reviews of the product have been positive. 

“That set kind of came out of nowhere, and everyone that I’ve talked to that has opened those boxes has loved them,” Durst said. “They were just really fun boxes to open, and I really hope that they continue to do this. And it’s bringing in a lot of college collectors as well.”

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All of this talk about cards with passionate collectors — and their videos of opening packs — got me excited for the products myself! I haven’t bought a pack of sports cards since the late 1990’s, but with my curiosity sufficiently piqued, I went out and bought a seven-pack box of Topps Bowman U (a “blaster box,” in the nomenclature). I felt like a kid again as I ripped the packs, tilting the Sean Clifford Pink Refractor under the light just so to create the dazzling effect. I got a CJ Stroud “Golden Boy” card, which I think is very cool, and a guy from my own team — Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak. I don’t know if I’m going to fall off the wagon completely and start buying boxes and boxes of college football cards. (After all, Topps BUNT is very cool and very free.) That said, I did enjoy opening the packs, and I could see myself splurging again here and there — as long as the industry continues to make products that are both intriguing and accessible.