North Texas vs. Texas State: First Responder Bowl Predictions and Betting Lines

How did these two not play sooner?

It is North Texas versus Texas State, and they are playing in Texas. There is a lot of Texas here, so expect a wild shootout.

Texas State throws it frequently, makes a lot of big plays, and finished first in the Sun Belt in scoring. It finished with three wins in its last four games, and it hopes to go two for two in bowl games by defeating Rice in the 2023 First Responder.

This is North Texas’ 14th bowl game, and it is looking for its first win since defeating UNLV in the 2014 Heart of Dallas – it has lost six straight bowl games and has not been to one since losing to Boise State in the 2022 Frisco Bowl.

Texas State vs North Texas: How to Watch the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Friday, January 3, 2025
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Teams: Texas State (10-2), North Texas (10-2)

Why North Texas Will Win

Texas State’s opt-outs are relatively large.

Star RB Ismail Mahdi is now an Arizona Wildcat, but the bigger issues are on the defensive side. When you combine that with a murky situation at several other positions – cornerback, offensive tackle, and possibly even quarterback Jordan McCloud; keep an eye on that just before game time – this is not your typical Texas State team.

North Texas averaged nearly 500 yards per game with a high-octane fast style, and they should be able to keep up with whatever pace Texas State sets. The key is to start running.

The Bobcats are 1-4 when allowing 171 or more rushing yards and 6-1 when allowing fewer. North Texas averages 169 rushing yards per game, but…

Why Texas State Will Win

Texas State is missing players, but North Texas’ losses are greater. Star quarterback Chandler Morris has left for Virginia, leading receiver DT Sheffield has retired, and the offensive line is attempting to patch things up.

Even at nearly full strength, North Texas struggled down the stretch, losing five straight before defeating Temple to become bowl eligible. There was a consistent turnover problem, and the defense was not even close. It was bad against the pass but even worse against the run.

The Mean Green went 0-5 when they allowed 230 or more rushing yards and 1-6 when they gave up more than 170. No, Texas State does not have Mahdi, but it still has enough to rip off more than 170 yards – it has done so nine times and is 7-0 when it gets 195 yards or more.

Texas State vs North Texas: Who Will Win?

It may be a little ragged with so many new parts on both sides, but the two systems are strong, the players in place will put forth their best effort, and this should be entertaining.

The Texas State offense will perform slightly better than the North Texas version, but the defense will be the deciding factor. The Mean Green will struggle to find a key stop.