Let us just say that the world might not be fully focused on college football on Tuesday night.
It is all right. I am going to tell you the first College Football Playoff Top 25.
I have been through the process in Grapevine and used to work with the CFP types. It is not a coincidence that the College Football Playoff National Championships got worse after I stopped doing the talking head stuff in the stadium.
But enough with my cocky blathering.
There are a lot of arguments over each and every top 25 ranking that the College Football Playoff committee makes. Say what you want about this group; they are really bad at what they do, but know this…
Many people would have you believe that the CFP rankings are rigged, but they are not. They really want to make sure that the playoff field is as good as it can be.
Again, what will the first list of the top 25 teams in the College Football Playoff be? I have you.
College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings Prediction
Remember three quick things. IN GENERAL – there are no hard and fast rules here.
- The committee likes big wins more than bad losses most of the time.
- There is an eye test, but it is mostly used to break ties, and most importantly…
- This list of rankings is an exhibit. They are just practicing and pulling off a big publicity stunt at one of the worst times ever, but hey. The most recent rankings are the only ones that matter. At that point, the only thing that matters is if you won your conference championship.
25 Tulane (7-2)
Why Tulane is ranked this high: The Green Wave beat Louisiana, which is Louisiana’s only loss, and they have won six straight games. But someone has to fight for this spot in the room.
24 Missouri (6-2)
I think the CFP will not know what to do with Missouri, which is why it is ranked here. The loss to Texas A&M and Alabama could make the team even worse. It will like the win over Vanderbilt and think this team is good.
23 Clemson (6-2)
This is why Clemson is ranked this high: where is the win? There is only one win, over NC State, which is against a team that might go bowling. They lost badly to Georgia and Louisville at home.
22 South Carolina (5-3)
Why South Carolina Is Ranked Here: The Gamecocks beat Texas A&M by 24 points, and their close losses to LSU and Alabama will make them look good. But their 27-3 loss to Ole Miss won’t.
21 Louisville (6-3)
Why Louisville Will Be Ranked Here: The committee will love the 33–21 win at Clemson last week. There are three losses, but the fact that they were all close at Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami is fine.
20 Kansas State (7-2)
Because of this, Kansas State will be ranked here. Remember that in the CFP, strong wins beat weak losses. It is bad that they lost at Houston last week, but it will matter if they beat Colorado, Tulane, and West Virginia on the road.
19 Ole Miss (7-2)
This is why Ole Miss is ranked this high: where is the big win? While South Carolina does count and Arkansas’s loss does help, this is more of a “eye-test” play. The iPads on the committee will not love the Rebels.
18 Pitt (7-1)
It is likely that Pitt should be ranked higher than this because it has five wins over teams that will bowl. The CFP will be aware of how you get blown out at SMU. I will say more about that soon.
17 Iowa State (7-1)
This is why Iowa State will be ranked this way: It could not be worse at this time. If the Cyclones had not lost at home to Texas Tech, they would have been around 7. Things are still fine, but we can not lose again in the regular season.
16 Washington State (7-1)
This is where Washington State will be ranked because I want the CFP to get this right. It lost to Boise State, but beat Texas Tech and Washington. Iowa State did not. But this could be the ceiling.
15 LSU (6-2)
This is where LSU will be ranked. The committee probably wants to put it higher, and they will next week if it beats Alabama. But its loss to USC looks bad now, and it also lost to A&M. It is big to beat Ole Miss and South Carolina.
14 Texas A&M (7-2)
This is why Texas A&M will be ranked here: If A&M had lost to South Carolina by 24 points last week, it could not have happened at a worse time. But wins over Missouri and LSU by 15 points got them here.
13 Alabama (6-2)
For this reason, Alabama is ranked this high: 1) the Georgia win, 2) beating South Carolina looks better, and 3) it is Alabama. The Vandy loss is not THAT bad now, and losing at Tennessee is fine.
12 Boise State (7-1)
This is why Boise State will be ranked here: That is the unfair part. The committee usually does not count big losses—the 37-34 loss at Oregon is the only one that stands out—and there are not any great wins other than UNLV.
11 Tennessee (7-1)
The Vols are likely to take a wait-and-see approach, which is why they will be ranked here. The CFP will really like the win over Alabama, really dislike the loss to Arkansas, and not care much about the close calls against the other teams.
10 SMU (8-1)
This is why SMU will be ranked here: Check out what is written here. No, the CFP does not have any bias; it is more of an awareness. This is TX Grapevine. They do not know EVERYTHING, but they do know a lot about SMU.
9 Notre Dame (7-1)
Why Notre Dame Is Ranked Here: Irish fans, do not get upset—ND will be ranked much higher if it goes 11-1. The Texas A&M win is very important, and the team is playing well, but… NIU.
8 Penn State (7-1)
Just because Penn State beat Ohio State does not mean they deserve to be ranked here. They played well enough to stay in the game. With the CFP, you can not make predictions, but this will be a list of the top 10 talent people.
7 Indiana (9-0)
The fact that Indiana is 9-0 will play a big role in how they are ranked. There are times when the committee does not care about the impressive record, but this, along with ALL nine wins in blowouts, makes up for the weak slate.
6 BYU (8-0)
This is why BYU will be ranked here: This is the big call, and it may even be too low. The CFP LOVES when they win big. Even better, BYU beat Kansas State and was the only team to lose to SMU. It did it in Dallas.
5 Miami (9-0)
Miami will be ranked here because they are so close to having that one really great win. But the Canes might be at 4 because they are 9-0 and have wins at Florida and Louisville.
4 Texas (7-1)
This may not be the lock you think it is, which is why Texas will be ranked here. The Longhorns did not have a great win—at Michigan? Vandy? — but Georgia’s loss will be okay.
3 Ohio State (7-1)
If the committee wants to see a little more, this is where Ohio State will be ranked. Their lone loss by one point at Oregon is fine, and their win at Penn State puts them at least at the third spot.
2 Georgia (7-1)
Why Georgia is ranked this high: The Bulldogs have not looked great, but their only loss was to Alabama, and they played well in the second half. Their wins over Texas and Clemson keep them at 2.
1 Oregon (9-0)
This is why Oregon will be ranked here: there is no other choice, and there is no debate. It looks good on a resume to say that the Ducks beat Ohio State and were the only team to lose to Boise State.
