San Diego State 73, Houston 70. It was an overtime game on November 30th that you most likely missed due to football season, but that’s why the Aztecs are here.
This is a youthful team with the potential to be a problem, but it has proven brutally unstable at crucial moments.
North Carolina is here because of a way-too-high NET ranking – look, conspiracy theorists, the Tar Heels were 36th, West Virginia 51st, and Indiana 54th – and… well, UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham serving as chairman of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is a horrible look.
Both teams got a reprieve when the conference tournament bid thieving was at a minimum, and now they have a chance to get one. Win, and it’s going to Milwaukee to play Ole Miss on Friday.
North Carolina vs San Diego State Preview
North Carolina vs San Diego State How To Watch
Date: Tuesday, March 18
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Time: 9:10 pm ET
TV: truTV
Teams: North Carolina (22-13), San Diego State (21-9)
Why North Carolina Will Win
The only way to put it sounds kind of nasty, but it works. San Diego State’s team plays immaturely.
Five of the top nine players in the rotation are underclassmen, and despite a veteran in Nick Boyd taking control at times, this group experiences unusual lulls – it lacks the maturity through hardship that the previous several lethal Aztec teams possessed.
The Tar Heels should be able to move and pick up the pace, but the biggest issue will be at the free throw line. SDSU is really terrible in crucial free throw situations, whereas the Tar Heels are adequate.
Why San Diego State Will Win
Oddly enough, North Carolina isn’t all that big. The Tar Heels are usually full of huge blasters up front who own the boards, but that’s not this bunch.
San Diego State has a problem when the other side barrels to the offensive glass, but UNC is a guard-oriented team that, when working properly, is rolling with guys 6-4 or under.
The Aztecs are very deep, very versatile, and they’re at their best when they go all velociraptor on opposing guards. There’s a reason they’re No. 1 in the nation in field goal defense, and now …
North Carolina vs San Diego State: Who Will Win?
San Diego State will probably be even bigger.
Seven-foot freshman standout Magoon Gwath is anticipated to be fit to play after missing the last two weeks due to a knee ailment. If he returns to form, the entire dynamic shifts – SDSU would have advanced to the NCAA tournament without the drama if he had been healthy down the stretch.
The Aztecs may struggle at times, but they will enjoy competing with the Tar Heels. The defense will be strong in the end.
There’s a reason North Carolina has just one Quad 1 victory.
North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: San Diego State 74, North Carolina 72
North Carolina vs San Diego State Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: UNC -4.5, o/u: 142.5
DraftKings Line: UNC -4.5, o/u: 142.5
FanDuel Line: UNC -5.5, o/u: 142.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5