Buckle up and be careful, because the later the bowls in the cycle, the more difficult it’ll be figuring out who’ll stick around and who’ll be in the portal.
It’s also tough for the bowls from December 31st to January 4th because a slew of these games involve the better mid-range teams from the Power conferences. That means more talent about to opt-out, more disgruntlement from players looking for more NIL money, and rougher games overall.
These used to be the reward bowls, but the CFP took away so many key teams that these don’t quite have the same luster. Even so, they’re bowl games, we’ll watch, and I try to do the impossible and make my first thought predictions before diving into the actual research this week for the game previews.
Bowl Game First Thought Predictions, Analysis: December 31 to January 4
ReliaQuest Bowl
Michigan vs Alabama
Tuesday, December 31
12:00, ESPN
No Research, Instant Analysis: This is not even Michigan or Alabama at their best. This is the bowl that could lose the most because of the College Football Playoff. The SEC team is good, and Michigan is only there for the uniforms.
It is not likely that the NFL players from Michigan will stay. Alabama will also be missing some players, but this is still a fairly young Tide team that should see this more as a stepping stone after missing out on the CFP. It still does not work with the Michigan O.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Alabama 30, Michigan 17
Line: Alabama -11.5, o/u: 43.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Louisville vs Washington
Tuesday, December 31
2:00, CBS
Both teams are in a good spot right now. There are enough veterans who want to show what they can do, but not too many freshmen who are ready for the portal to be too important.
Louisville should be able to pull this off with a little more defensive pop and downfield explosion. There will be a lot of lost parts by this time.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Louisville 27, Washington 23
Line: Louisville -5, o/u: 50.5
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs South Carolina
Tuesday, December 31
3:00, ABC
There was no research done for this question: How much of that defense will South Carolina keep? LaNorris Sellers, a rising star quarterback for the Gamecocks, and Luke Altmyer should make this fun.
They can both bomb the ball away in what should be a close, tough game. This might be one of the more typical big bowl games, and Illinois might keep it close longer than most people think they will.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
South Carolina 30, Illinois 24
Line: South Carolina -11.5, o/u: 47.5
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Baylor vs LSU
Tuesday, December 31
3:30, ESPN
The LSU opt-outs have not happened yet, but they are on their way. Do not worry. It looks like Baylor will be a little more put together. They have an interesting offense and a team that quietly went off after their tough loss to Colorado on the Hail Mary.
But whatever parts of LSU’s defense are still there should step up and do their job. The offense will make up for a bad day from a (likely) patched-together defense.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
LSU 35, Baylor 26
Line: LSU -3, o/u: 60.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Duke vs Ole Miss
Thursday, January 2
7:30, ESPN
No Research Instant Analysis: Uh oh. Duke QB Maalik Murphy jumped into the transfer portal, as is the team is offensively challenged, and Ole Miss, despite the snub from the CFP, should bring enough talent and want-to to make this rough.
The Manny Diaz defense will hold the line for a bit, but Duke won’t have the firepower to keep up any pace. This prediction could take a hard left turn, though. Ole Miss might be gutted by lost parts by January.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Ole Miss 30, Duke 13
Line: Ole Miss -14, o/u: 53.5
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
North Texas vs Texas State
Friday, January 3
4:00, ESPN
Since there are no players in this bowl season, I am sorry I am so negative about how bad it might be. But it should be fun in a weird way. Even though we are about to watch a bunch of weird games, all I ask is that there are enough pieces for this to be the 84–76 game it needs to be.
North Texas will not have QB Chandler Morris or top WR DT Sheffield, and Texas State lost star RB Ismail Mahdi to the portal. But I do not care. No matter who is on the field, the two coaches should step up the offense.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Texas State 45, North Texas 37
Line: Texas State -7.5, o/u: 67.5
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Virginia Tech vs Minnesota
Friday, January 3
7:30, ESPN
Instant Analysis: This one might not be so bad after all. A lot of players are leaving Virginia Tech through the portal, but the core should be fine overall. Minnesota might still be pretty whole.
PJ Fleck is good at bowling, but the whole thing is going to be a fight. It is one of the last bowl games before the playoffs, and it should be one of the best.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Minnesota 26, Virginia Tech 20
Line: Minnesota -4.5, o/u: 42.5
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs Buffalo
Saturday, January 4
11:00 am, ESPN/ESPN2
Based on our quick research, this used to be the bowl that started it all, but then everyone saw how hard it was to make it work, so now it is the end, and all of this comes after taking a year off from the Bahamas for construction.
Liberty should have a very hard time with that extra time. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is on a lot of short lists, quarterback Kaidon Salter is gone, and a lot of talented players have left. Buffalo should be pretty much the same.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Buffalo 27, Liberty 24
Line: Liberty -2.5, o/u: 51.5
