Texas vs. Ohio State: Cotton Bowl CFP Predictions and Betting Lines

Texas is the only team from last year’s four-team CFP that has made it to the tournament, and it is back to try again.

It struggled to defeat Clemson in the first round, needing a big run to finish 38-24, and then Texas went Texasing, folding in the final 20 minutes of the Peach Bowl against Arizona State, only to win 39-31 in double overtime.

Oh, and earlier in the year, it defeated Michigan 31-12.

Ohio State did everything possible to avoid losing to Michigan, but it lost 13-10 and missed out on the Big Ten Championship. But that shook something loose in this incredibly talented team.

While Texas defeated a mediocre Clemson and a very good Arizona State, Ohio State played as if it had 13 defensive players on the field against Tennessee and Oregon. More impressively, the O opened up, scoring 42 on the Vols and 41 on the Ducks.

With a win, Texas would record its first 14-win season. Ohio State needs to win the national championship to reach 14, which it did in 2002 and 2014. It won everything in both years.

Ohio State vs Texas: How to Watch the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Friday, January 10, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Teams: Ohio State (12-2), Texas (13-2)

Ohio State and Texas Recent Bowl History

– The Buckeyes are playing in their fifth CFP semifinal, Looking to return to the national championship for the first time since being roundhouse kicked by DeVonta Smith and Alabama at the end of the 2020 season.

It was a missed field goal against Georgia away from playing for it all – and 99.99999% certain to win against TCU – two years ago; it just barely missed out on the CFP title game in a thriller of a semifinal loss to Clemson in the 2019 Fiesta; it lost 31-0 to Clemson in the 2016 Fiesta; and, of course, won it all as a 4 seed in the first ever College Football Playoff in 2014.

– Texas didn’t figure out that Washington couldn’t handle the midrange passing attack in until it was too latein last year’s Sugar Bowl semifinal misfire of 37-31. It last competed for the national title in the 2010 BCS Championship, which ended the 2009 season, losing to Alabama after Marcel Dareus broke Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy early on.

Ohio State vs Texas Weather Forecast

It is located inside AT&T Stadium. With the roof closed, the conditions will be acceptable, but not as good as they will be once the renovations for the 2026 World Cup begin.

Ohio State vs Texas All-Time Record

These two superpower programs have only been played three times. Texas defeated the Buckeyes 24-21 in the 2009 Fiesta, Ohio State sparked a run to the BCS Championship – which ended in a loss to Florida – with a 24-7 victory early in 2006, and the epic Vince Young 2005 season began with a 25-22 Week 2 thriller in Columbus.

Why Texas Will Win

If there is any sort of home field advantage, the game will be held in Arlington, Texas.

But it will not be a big deal. What will matter are the Texas NFL lines, which can hold their own against the Ohio State fronts.

The Buckeyes were able to get away with a razor-thin offensive line with no depth, but this remains a bit of a question mark despite pitching two straight perfect games.

The Texas offensive line should be much more physical than the Vols and Ducks were against an Ohio State defense that is on fire. But, in addition to Longhorn power, there is also speed.

Tennessee and Oregon are quick, but they were two steps behind what Ohio State wanted. The Buckeyes can fly, but they can not outrun the Longhorns.

Oregon was outmatched in the secondary, Tennessee struggled to handle the ground game up front, and Texas has enough defensive backs to keep Jeremiah Smith and the OSU receivers in check.

Aside from their own practices against Caleb Downs, Jahdae Barron is the best defensive back Ohio State has faced.

Former Ohio State Buckeye QB Quinn Ewers has been unflappably good so far, even if he is underappreciated. The special teams demonstrated brilliance against ASU, despite a few meltdowns.

Why Ohio State Will Win

Yeah, if Texas performs like it did against Arizona State and Clemson, forget it.

The Longhorn offensive line was unable to generate any sort of push against the Sun Devils, with the longest run being seven yards. Cam Skattebo may be special, but Ohio State’s 1-2 rushing punch of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson is equally impressive.

These two can move – Henderson has 18 carries for 174 yards and four touchdowns in the two CFP games, Junkins has 27 carries for 119 yards and two touchdowns, and Smith has 13 catches for 290 and four touchdowns in the last two games.

But this is the defense.

This veteran defense delivered mail to the Oregon backfield, which finished with -23 rushing yards. The Dylan Sampson-less Vols provided a boost, and the midrange Duck passing game demonstrated Texas’ potential for long stretches. However, Arizona State could limit Texas to 1.8 yards per carry.

Ohio State vs Texas: Who Will Win?

Everyone will spend the next several days kissing Ohio State’s buttocks.

Texas has been shaky this year, with the best win likely coming against Texas A&M, and the Buckeyes are all puffy-chested after destroying the Vols and holding a light scrimmage against the unbeaten No. 1 Big Ten champs.

Texas will benefit from the crowd’s enthusiasm, and Steve Sarkisian’s first two drives will be exceptional.

Texas will do what it always does: become too creative for its own good.

Ohio State will be fighting in the first quarter. Will Howard was brilliant in the first two CFP games, but an early pick followed by an explosive Longhorn drive will set the tone for a very different game than the previous two.

The Buckeyes will then regain their momentum.

Similar to Georgia’s two losses, Texas will play well for stretches of time before acting as if it lacks… IT.

Texas has the talent, athleticism, and desire, but it lacks the unique gear that a far inferior Arizona State team demonstrated in Atlanta.

Ohio State will play in Atlanta on January 20th.