It’s North Carolina basketball.
The world wouldn’t make sense if the Tar Heels didn’t excel at college basketball. The world makes even less sense now that the greatest coach to ever work at the hoops-crazed school is in charge of the football team.
North Carolina was ranked ninth in the AP Poll and tenth in the Coaches Poll entering the season, but all that changed after a 4-4 start that turned into a 6-5 start before the ACC season began.
But again, this is North Carolina. It’s supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament, but it barely makes everyone’s First Four Out list. So, can it actually happen? Can the Tar Heels be left out?
Why North Carolina should make the NCAA Tournament?
Yeah, that 6-5 start to the season that doomed the Tar Heels before the fun could begin?
The losses all came away from Chapel Hill, against preseason No. 1 Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida. Almost everyone else in America would be 6-5 at best against UNC’s early schedule.
After the wheels came off in a blowout loss to Clemson – a very, very good Clemson team on the road – everything clicked into place for six straight victories.
For whatever it’s worth, the Tar Heels currently rank 38th in both the KenPom and NET rankings. It is not crazy to believe they belong.
However …
Why North Carolina shouldn’t make the NCAA Tournament?
Those losses early in the season are completely acceptable. The midseason 1-4 stretch, which included losses to Stanford, Wake Forest, and Pitt, were not.
UCLA has one more Quad 1 win than you, and no one is concerned with the Quad 2s and 3. It had a mediocre year in an average basketball conference.
Will North Carolina make the NCAA Tournament?
No, but it may be the first team eliminated after an unavoidable magical run in another conference tournament messes things up.
A win over Duke on Saturday would not remove it from the bubble, but if it can do that and win at least one game in the ACC Tournament – which is being held in Charlotte – that may be enough.
A loss to Duke would not be fatal, but it would require the Tar Heels to win against Clemson, Louisville, and/or Duke in order to remain in contention.