For all of the bubble teams, winning a few games under pressure makes life much more fun. If you lose in the first round of a conference tournament, it’s a bad day.
Having said that, the NCAA Tournament committee isn’t very concerned about conference tournament results. These games are more like tiebreakers. However, some made big moves, while others face-planted, and it was all a lot of fun.
Assuming we’ve settled on Oklahoma, Arkansas, and – even though it shouldn’t be as safe as it is after losing in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Texas – Vanderbilt, which bubble teams will and will not make the NCAA Tournament?
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, San Diego State, Boise State, Ohio State, Xavier
Will Boise State make the NCAA Tournament?
(23-9) It’s still really bubbly. Beating San Diego State was amazing – the defense clamped down hard, allowing the Aztecs to crumble with a disastrous offensive finish – but it was still a 62-52 victory with everything on the line. Beat New Mexico, and you’re in. Lose, and it will play in one of the first four games.
Will Colorado State make the NCAA Tournament?
(23-9) It needs to beat Utah State. The Rams do not have to win the Mountain West Tournament, but a victory over the Aggies will put them in contention. The committee might still prefer San Diego State, however. Lose to Utah State, but no.
Will Dayton make the NCAA Tournament?
(22-9) No, but it hasn’t begun playing yet. The Flyers are performing well, but the NET and KenPom dislike them, and there is too much work to be done unless they win the Atlantic-10 Tournament. It’s a single-bid conference.
Will Indiana make the NCAA Tournament?
(19-13) A soft no. It should be an absolute no after the 72-59 defeat to Oregon in what was essentially a home game in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, but everyone else on this list must lose right away.
Will North Carolina make the NCAA Tournament?
(22-12) Win and you’re in; lose and you may be out. Even with the win over Wake Forest, the absence of Quad 1 wins remains a major issue. Here’s where the “maybe” comes in: defeat the Cooper Flagg-less Duke team on Friday, and that’s it. In. Lose, but probably not.
Will Ohio State make the NCAA Tournament?
(17-15) No. The answer should be ABSOLUTELY NOT, given its record and a strange defeat to a meh Iowa team in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, yet the NET still loves the Buckeyes more than Indiana.
Will San Diego State make the NCAA Tournament?
(21-9) Ehhhhhh, really soft… right? Here is the problem. Even with the catastrophic loss to Boise State, this is the only credible Mountain West team with the skills, talent, and ability to cause some damage in the NCAA Tournament – and it’s not just because of the last two years.
The win over Houston remains crucial, but there is one major aspect that could sway the committee: Magoon Gwath. The standout freshman injured his knee and missed the previous three games, but if it is revealed that he will play if the Aztecs are admitted, SDSU is easily one of the top 68 teams.
Will Texas make the NCAA Tournament?
(19-14) Yes, because someone on this list needs to make it. The Longhorns pounded Vanderbilt far worse than the final score of 79-72, and then defeated a potential NCAA 3 seed, Texas A&M – that should suffice.
Beat Tennessee, and it’s over; let’s go for a steam. Lose, and it’s still more dicey than it should be; don’t underestimate how outrageous the optics will be if 14 SEC teams get in, even if it’s justified.
Will Xavier make the NCAA Tournament?
(21-11) Lean toward yes. It should be accepted if the committee monitors the games. On the surface, yes, especially given the difficult battle against Marquette in the Big East Tournament quarterfinal loss. However, there is only one Quad 1 win, and all of the teams remaining on this list must lose instantly.
Will Wake Forest make the NCAA Tournament?
(21-10) No. It was already as bubbly as could be after an average season with insufficient Quad 1 wins, and then it lost to North Carolina in the first round of the ACC Tournament.