The Big 12 played its cards right. The conference managed to tread water in the ocean of realignment by foreseeing the poaching of Oklahoma and Texas and acting swiftly, adding Houston, UCF, BYU and Cincinnati prior to the 2023 season.

In 2024, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah will join the fray in an attempt to keep the league nationally relevant alongside the SEC, Big Ten and ACC. Each of those four schools have unique backgrounds and cultures that will add to the Big 12’s already diverse make-up.

The first season in a new conference can either be surprisingly successful or incredibly humbling. Liberty experienced the former in the C-USA last season, while Cincinnati certainly experienced the latter in this league.

But, what is the outlook for the Big 12 in the long-term? Who is destined to be among the conference’s elite, and who will fall to the cellar of the league? Will new rivalries form? Who will dominate on the recruiting trail?

These are but a few of the questions that will face all 16 members of the league in 2024 and beyond. In this piece, I took a stab at projecting which teams would become the faces of the conference…and which would fall to the wayside. 

These are based off of a 5-10 year projection, not just the team’s 2024 success.

The Leaders

Who It’ll Be: Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State

Out of the original members of the Big 12, I truly only see Oklahoma State and Kansas State as the two squads that could remain atop this conference. And, it’s mostly because of their coaching. Mike Gundy, no matter the personnel he has or strange early-season loss that he suffers, always seems to field a squad that is at least in contention in this league late in the season. The Cowboys’ culture and moderate recruiting success should allow them to remain towards the top. Kansas State is in a very similar boat, as Chris Klieman has an argument in being just as consistent as Gundy, again due to great team culture and player development.

But, I see Arizona surpassing both of these schools. Even with Jedd Fisch moving on to coach at Washington, the Wildcats should not miss a beat. Brent Brennan is also a proven program-builder and a great offensive mind, and he should be able to maintain the positive momentum this program has going for it. The offense should fit right into the Big 12, while the much-improved Wildcat defense should rank among the league’s best.

Utah and UCF are wildly different programs, but they are both built for future success. I’ve talked a lot about consistency, and Kyle Whittingham’s program is the poster child for that term. The Utes’ physical defense should take the Big 12 by storm, and the underrated offensive talent that Utah puts on the field should only flourish more against the defenses of this league. 

UCF already has a year under its belt, and I trust the Knights to become one of the faces of the Big 12 for three reasons. No. 1, Gus Malzahn is a top-tier coach in college football, and he’ll keep this program on the cutting edge needed to maintain success. No. 2, UCF will always have incredible athletes on offense and thus be able to put points on the board. And, No. 3, recruiting for the Knights should only take off as the Big 12 establishes its brand in Florida.

The Contenders

Who It’ll Be: Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas

The wild card of all wild cards is Colorado. Deion Sanders is going to keep winning on the recruiting trail, and the football brand in Boulder will only continue to expand. But, can that translate to conference championships? And how great is Sanders at developing and retaining talent? The Buffs could be atop the league if they can continue on an upward trend, but the outlook is murky when there always seem to be so many shuffling pieces within the program.

At some point I’ll stop talking about consistency, but Iowa State is another team that falls into that category. Matt Campbell’s program was on the downswing for a bit after he brought them into national relevance shortly after he arrived, but he turned it around with a stellar 2023 campaign in which he found a QB (Rocco Becht) and RB (Abu Sama) of the future. And, his Cyclones will continue to play salty defense and Ames will always be one of the most difficult places to play at. Taking that next step into the realm of the Big 12’s elite is the next challenge for Campbell.

I refrained from placing Texas Tech among the leaders purely because of how the 2023 season went. All signs pointed towards a breakthrough campaign for Joey McGuire’s program, but QB struggles and unforeseen defensive issues plagued it. For now, I’ll place the Red Raiders here, although they are likely only behind Colorado in terms of overall ceiling out of these 16 teams.

How long Kansas can retain Lance Leipold will go a long way in determining where KU falls into this mix, but the Jayhawks should continue to field some explosive offenses at the bare minimum. I also fully believe that Sonny Dykes and TCU will bounce back from their letdown ’23 campaign to at least get back to winning 7-9 games per year. 

The Middle of the Pack

Who It’ll Be: Houston, Arizona State, West Virginia, Baylor

Houston’s ceiling is immense due to its location, fan base and football tradition, and the hiring of Willie Fritz as head coach makes that even more true. But, it remains to be seen how long it will take Fritz to return this program to prominence, and the Cougars also need to establish a firm culture on defense after some rough seasons. For the next five-ish years, UH will likely reside in the middle of the standings with (maybe) a one-off breakout season. After that, this program has all of the tools to be towards the top of the league.

Neal Brown did a magnificent job in cooling off his hot seat in ’23, and WVU figures to continue to be a tough-minded team throughout his tenure. That may not lead to many conference championship appearances, but it should lead to consistent .500+ finishes. And, even if it isn’t with Dave Aranda, I believe that Baylor will tread water in this league again.

Arizona State is starting behind the eight-ball, but Kenny Dillingham is the right man for the job in Tempe, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that ASU will become a recruiting power in the near future under his guidance. The fan base is passionate, the Sun Devils have plenty of resources and talent is rarely an issue.

The Bottom-Dwellers

Who It’ll Be: Cincinnati, BYU

For Cincinnati, I’m just not sure if Scott Satterfield is going to be a long-term answer. Winning 6+ games in Cincy’s first season in the Big 12 may have been too much to ask for, but it looked out-matched in a lot of the contests it competed in. The Bearcats do not reside in a recruiting hot bed and rarely have game-changing talent on the offensive side of the ball. If Satterfield doesn’t win 7+ games within the next two years, then I can see Cincinnati having to move on and start again from square one.

BYU has a slightly brighter outlook. Kilani Sitake is safe in Provo right now, and the Cougars were competitive in their first season of Big 12 action. The issues will be if BYU can recruit with the rest of the Big 12, field an offense that can keep pace and improve overall team speed. Sitake and Co. may have a handful of solid seasons, but I worry about them consistently being able to contend.