There are many “What ifs?” in college football. It’s a fun exercise, especially since nobody can truly be right or wrong in their speculation. So for the third year in a row, I’ve dug deep to see how the Michigan Wolverines made it to the mountaintop of college football. Of course, the list of everything that led to their 34-13 win over the Washington Huskies in the title game could fill a novel. This is just one man’s attempt to collect and write about the many different paths that could have occurred.  

Quick Questions to Ponder:

– What if Iowa had an average offense/a good offensive coordinator?

– What if LSU had an average defense?

– What if Tulane had a healthy Michael Pratt against Ole Miss (a 37-20 loss that was much closer than the final score) and also beat SMU in the AAC title game? Could the Green Wave be 2021 Cincinnati Part 2? 

– What if Oklahoma State had started Alan Bowman from the beginning of the season and had given Ollie Gordon II way more touches from Week 1?

Coaches:

Michigan:

Dec. 2, 2014: Brady Hoke fired

Dec. 29, 2014: Jim Harbaugh hired

Jan. 15, 2018: Sherrone Moore hired as tight ends coach

After returning to Michigan (he’d been an assistant from 1995 to 2002) after several successful seasons at Ball State and San Diego State, Brady Hoke won the Sugar Bowl in his first season. But after three middling seasons followed, he was let go. During those years, former Michigan quarterback Jim Harbaugh was dominating the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. The team made the Super Bowl and looked to be the class of the NFC West. But after an 8-8 2014 season and disagreements between him and the front office led to Harbaugh being forced out, it was as if fate had decreed this timeline to happen. 

But the timeline was almost destroyed when Harbaugh was suspended. First, it was for recruiting violations. Then it was for the Connor Stalions’ sign-stealing scandal. But in stepped Sherrone Moore. He served as head coach against Bowling Green, Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State. The Wolverines went 4-0 (though Harbaugh is credited with the Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State wins). Moore stepping in and stepping up helped keep Michigan from a potential collapse.   

Washington:

Nov. 14, 2021: Jimmy Lake fired 

Nov. 29, 2021: Kalen DeBoer hired 

Jan. 30, 2023: Ryan Grubb reportedly meets with Alabama to be the Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator but decides to stay at Washington

The transition from Chris Petersen to Jimmy Lake was supposed to take Washington from being a competitive Pac-12 team to a competitive national title contender. Instead, it made the Huskies a laughing stock. Lake was fired and replaced by Kalen DeBoer, who had won everywhere but the Power Five level. But he turned the program around immediately thanks to an explosive offense. That offense was threatened when Alabama attempted to poach Ryan Grubb. With a chance to head to the premier program of the last decade plus, Grubb instead stayed. 

There are always arguments of whether it’s about the coaches or players in what truly makes a team great. It’s always in the middle of course, as this talented roster just needed the proper coaching to deliver on the promising talent.  

Texas:

Jan. 2, 2021: Tom Herman fired and Steve Sarkisian hired

Jan. 25, 2021: Washington defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is hired to the same position 

Steve Sarkisian was much like Texas when he arrived in Austin. Both had plenty of promise with moments of great brilliance and flameouts. The pairing could have been a disaster.
Instead, the Longhorns stampeded into the playoff. It helped that Pete Kwiatkowski decided to join the staff, which directly affected the Longhorns in multiple ways as they ended up playing his old team, Washington, in the playoff. If he had stayed (and if Sarkisian himself had been able to stick at Washington years ago), is Texas back? 

Alabama:

Jan. 13, 2023: Defensive coordinator Pete Golding takes the same position at Ole Miss 

Jan. 21, 2023: Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien hired by the New England Patriots

Feb. 3, 2023: Tommy Rees hired as offensive coordinator

Feb. 5, 2023: Kevin Steele hired as defensive coordinator

For better or worse, Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele were hired. Alabama fans have all kinds of things to say about the two, so I’ll just leave it at this: who knows what happens with different coordinators?

Players:

Playoff teams:

Michigan:

Dec. 6, 2022: Tackle LaDarius Henderson transfers from Arizona State

Dec. 17, 2022 Tackle Myles Hinton transfer from Stanford

Dec. 18, 2022: Edge Josaiah Stewart transfers from Coastal Carolina and center Drake Nugent transfers from Stanford 

Michigan’s dominant offensive line got a boost with three key contributors transferring in from the Pac-12. The addition of Josaiah Stewart was a cherry on top of an already loaded front seven unit. 

Washington: 

Feb. 3, 2021: Wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk transfers from Texas Tech

Dec. 14, 2021: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. transfers from Indiana

Dec. 4, 2022: Penix announces his return to school

Dec. 10, 2022: Defensive lineman Tuli Letuligasenoa announces his return to school

Dec. 17, 2022: Wide receiver Germie Bernard transfers from Michigan State

Dec. 18, 2022: Edges Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui announce their return to school

Dec. 19, 2022: Left tackle Troy Fautanu announces his return to school 

Dec. 22, 2022: Wide receiver Jalen McMillan announces he is staying at Washington instead of transferring or heading to the NFL draft

Dec. 22, 2022: Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad transfers from Oklahoma State

Jan. 3, 2023: Running back Dillon Johnson transfers from Mississippi State

Jan. 12, 2023: Wide receiver Rome Odunze announces his return to school

Washington was certainly aided by a slew of draft-eligible players deciding to return. But it all might not have mattered if Michael Penix Jr. had not decided to transfer to the Pacific Northwest in the first place. 

Texas: 

Dec. 12, 2021: Quarterback Quinn Ewers transfers from Ohio State

Jan. 20, 2023: Wide receiver Adonai “AD” Mitchell transfers from Georgia

The home state quarterback returned home after a year of learning at Ohio State and established himself as one of the most talented Longhorns quarterbacks in a few seasons. After a solid 2021 season from the receiving corps, the addition of a big-play threat with playoff experience in Adonai Mitchell took it over the top. 

Alabama:

Aug. 17, 2020: Quarterback, Texas native and former Longhorns commit Jalen Milroe commits to Alabama

Jan. 23, 2022: Wide receiver Jermaine Burton transfers in from Georgia

Dec. 20, 2022: Tackle and Iowa commit Kadyn Proctor flips from Iowa to Alabama

It would have been interesting to see how Jalen Milroe would have been treated at Texas. Though it was due to injury, former quarterback Roschon Johnson was a successful position switch story as he became a key rotational running back. Would Milroe have been able to fend off Ewers? Or would he have been catching passes from the former Buckeye?

Jermaine Burton had shown flashes at Georgia and eventually grew into the Crimson Tide’s top receiving threat after star-studded recruits flamed out. Speaking of flaming out, the once dominant offensive line of Alabama has fallen off as of late, but Kadyn Proctor was good enough. He did have struggles as a freshman but improved as the season went along. 

Non-playoff teams:

Feb. 1, 2022: Caleb Williams transfers from Oklahoma to USC

Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel played well overall, but he had a rough go in the Sooners’ loss to Kansas. If Caleb Williams had stayed, would the Sooners take down both Kansas and Oklahoma State to set up a rematch against Texas in Arlington? Would it have been an undefeated Williams-led Oklahoma team in the College Football Playoff instead of the Longhorns? At the very least, do the Sooners split one of its two losses (to Texas or Oklahoma State) and end up in the playoff as a one-loss team? In either situation, how would seeding have been affected?

Arizona starts Jayden de Laura over Noah Fifita at the beginning of the 2023 season

This is a long shot, but Jayden de Laura was a wild card that threw too many ill-advised interceptions and also got into a scuffle with Dorian Singer (who was a stud at Arizona before transferring away after the 2022 season). The turnover continued this season but it was not enough to bench him. It took an injury to start freshman Noah Fifita who immediately put life into the offense and never relinquished the job. 

The Wildcats went 7-2 with Fifita as the starter, with the two losses coming in close defeats at the hands of Washington (Fifita’s first start) and USC in triple overtime. It came down to tiebreakers to keep Arizona out of the Pac-12 title game. 

The Wildcats finished 10-3 (the other loss came in overtime as de Laura threw four interceptions and called his own number on a fake spike that resulted in time running out to end the first half instead of getting a field goal). If Fifita had started from Week 1, would the Wildcats have run the table? At the very least, do they hand Washington a loss with Fifita having four weeks of game experience under his belt?

Regular Season Games:

Playoff teams:

Michigan:

Penn State (W 24-15), Maryland (W 31-24), Ohio State (W 30-24)

Michigan only had three tests in the regular season (and it can easily be argued that the Penn State game was not too difficult). To the Wolverines’ credit, they went three for three in their close games. However, Ohio State was driving for a go-ahead touchdown before throwing an interception. That is the clearest close call, but the Terrapins and the Nittany Lions were at least in it in the fourth quarter. If just one of these game results flips, with such a weak schedule, does a one-loss Michigan fall to the fourth seed? Do the Wolverines even make it into the College Football Playoff? 

Washington:

Arizona (W 31-24), Oregon Part 1 (W 36-33), Arizona State (W 15-7), Stanford (W 42-33), USC (52-42), Utah (W 35-28), Oregon State (W 22-20), Washington State (W 24-21) and Oregon Part 2 (W 34-31)

Washington had the most and widest variety of close games. The Oregon matchups were pay-per-view boxing match-type games. Arizona was a game against a sneakily competent underdog while the Arizona State game was a classic emotional letdown game. Stanford was a sleepy road game test while USC was a non-stop, action-packed matchup under the lights of Hollywood. Utah and Oregon State were in the tier below Washington and Oregon in the Pac-12 and gave the Huskies all they could handle. Finally, the Washington State game was a rivalry game where the visiting Cougars had nothing to lose and were a fourth-down stop away from potentially upending the apple cart. 

If the Huskies had lost an early season game but won out, they most likely would have been in the playoff but as a lower seed. A late-season loss might have spelled doom. Multiple losses would have been a disaster. Also, it is worth noting that if Oregon had flipped one of the Washington results (most likely the Pac-12 title game loss), the Ducks would have represented the Pac-12 in the playoff.  

Texas:

Alabama (W 34-24), Oklahoma (L 34-30), Houston (W 31-24), Kansas State (W 33-30 in OT), TCU (W 29-26), Iowa State (W 26-16)

The win at Alabama might be the best Power Five non-conference win of the year. That buoyed the Longhorns even as they stumbled against Oklahoma and had other close wins. There are many different branches concerning Texas’ season. There is of course the Alabama win. If the Crimson Tide had won and finished undefeated, they have the strongest claim to the one seed. But the loss also served as a quality loss that Alabama was able to use for its benefit. Another question focuses on the Oklahoma loss. If the Sooners had not eked out a fourth quarter fourth-and-goal stop and later a game-winning drive, a 13-0 Longhorns team is certainly the top-seeded team. 

Alabama:

Texas (L 34-24), South Florida (W 17-3), Texas A&M (W 26-20), Arkansas (W 24-21), Tennessee (W 34-20), LSU (W 42-28), Auburn (W 27-24), Georgia (W 27-24)

On one hand, Alabama was one loss away from the number one seed. On the other hand, the Crimson Tide tried to give away the SEC West multiple times. Don’t forget the close, sloppy game at South Florida, where it took a touchdown in the final minute to make the final score what it was (sidenote: Alabama could have knelt out the clock. I am convinced Nick Saban kept running because he knew a 10-3 win over the Bulls would not slide). Of course, the fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line ending in a touchdown might be the play that defines the season. Unknowingly to Alabama, Florida State and even Texas, that ultimately decided the playoff. Florida State would have almost certainly been in. Meanwhile, does Texas, with its best win being a victory over a two-loss Alabama, get seeded third? 

Non-playoff team:

Missouri loses to LSU (49-39) and Georgia (30-21)

Missouri’s offense would have made noise in the playoff. All the Tigers would have needed to do to put themselves in position to get there would have been to beat Georgia. That would have given the Tigers the tiebreaker and a trip to Atlanta. If a closely-contested pointsfest against LSU had flipped as well, would Missouri have beaten Alabama? Then that would have led to an undefeated Michigan, Washington, Missouri and Florida State along with one-loss Texas. Do the Seminoles make it then? Also, how would the seeding have gone? 

Penn State loses to Ohio State (20-12) and Michigan (24-15)

This case is not as exciting as it seems. Penn State showed once again that its coaching is holding back immense talent that stacks up to every team in the nation. But if somehow the Nittany Lions had won just one of these games, or by a miracle both, their defense would have put a scare into its other playoff foes. 

Louisville loses to Pittsburgh (38-21), Kentucky (38-31) and Florida State (16-6)

This is less about Louisville and more about Florida State. The Cardinals got sniped by the classic “Pittsburgh upset” that seems to always happen to ACC teams, lost a heated rivalry game against Kentucky then got sat on by Florida State. If they had three great games and gone undefeated, this would have been the biggest shocker of a playoff team in the four-team format. 

More importantly is how a win over an undefeated or one-loss Cardinals team would have impacted the Seminoles. Does a 16-6 win on its third string quarterback in bad weather look more impressive in the selection committee’s eyes and nudge Florida State ahead of Alabama? 

Oklahoma State’s comeback win over BYU officially knocks Oklahoma out of the Big 12 title game

Oklahoma State trailed BYU 24-6 at home heading into halftime. The offense seemed out of sync and the Cougars had everything clicking. But the Cowboys clawed back and won in double overtime. With tiebreakers, they played (and got smoked) by Texas in the Big 12 Championship while the two-loss Sooners stayed home. If Oklahoma had gotten the chance to play Texas again, does Red River Part 2 go the same way as Part 1? Also, Oklahoma’s back-to-back close losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State led to the Sooners third-place finish in the Big 12 standings. An undefeated Oklahoma makes the playoff, but can a one-loss Oklahoma say the same?

Injuries:

Playoff teams:

Washington

Running backs Cameron Davis and Richard Newton to begin the season, Dillon Johnson during the playoff

Washington had quickly become a pass-first team in DeBoer’s first season, but Cameron Davis and Richard Newton were set to provide a little balance for the 2023 season. But injuries led to the emergence of Dillon Johnson. However, he suffered leg injuries down the stretch that culminated in another ankle injury on the very first drive of the national championship that limited him. Not only was he the Huskies RB1 by miles, he was also a stud as a pass blocker. If he is fully healthy, are the Huskies able to somehow slow down the Wolverines’ pass rush with the threat of the running game? 

Texas 

Running back Jonathon Brooks

Jonathon Brooks rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns before tearing his right ACL in the Longhorns’ win over TCU. His backups were highly talented and flashed, but of course Brooks was a key cog that was missing for Texas. Is he the difference in a close loss to Washington in the semifinals?

Non-playoff teams:

Florida State’s Jordan Travis

Out of all the injuries, this was the most impactful. Jordan Travis was on his way to a trip to the Heisman Trophy ceremony and the Seminoles were on their way to the playoff. With a dominant defense and overwhelming offensive weapons, this team would have been dangerous. But then Travis suffered a broken leg on a run against North Alabama and that was it. Florida State was pretty much eliminated then and there. 

Georgia’s Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey

In Georgia’s 27-24 loss to Alabama in the SEC title game, star tight end Brock Bowers and reliable receiver Ladd McConkey were not 100%. It showed as McConkey was almost a non-factor (three receptions, 38 yards) while Bowers led the team in receiving (five receptions, 53 yards) but did not score. Is a fully-healthy Bulldogs team able to take down the Crimson Tide?  

Utah’s Cameron Rising and Brant Kuithe 

Utah had three non-competitive losses along with a narrow miss against Washington. However, the Utes were once again scrappy on defense and had just enough on offense. If stud quarterback Cameron Rising and Brant Kuithe had been available, would they have been enough to somehow carry this team to a top four seed? At the very least, could they have been the difference in an upset bid of the Huskies?  

Playoff Games

Michigan 27, Alabama 20 (OT)

There is criticism of the final play call for Alabama that could have tied the game. But it was the whole game of Michigan’s defense stifling any explosive plays by Alabama’s usual deep passing game or any Milroe back-breaking scrambles. Of course, Michigan nearly muffed away the game, and if the muff at the end of regulation had resulted in a safety, the Crimson Tide would have had two of the most insane wins in the history of all sports. There was also the J.J. McCarthy interception on the first play of scrimmage that was overturned as the defender had a heel out of bounds. McCarthy almost threw another interception on Michigan’s game-tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter. It was truly a game of inches for the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. 

Washington 37, Texas 31

Ewers’ final pass under duress at first appeared to be a game-tying score. But it held up in the air and was knocked away. A pass with more zip would have led to a Texas touchdown. There is also the fact that the Longhorns abandoned the running game that had been effective for a majority of the first half. If they had bled the clock more, maybe Penix does not get into the zone which allowed him to duck sack attempts and chuck pinpoint passes all game. Then again, if Washington had better managed the clock at the end of the game, Ewers never gets the chance for the final pass. 

The National Championship Game

Michigan 34, Washington 13

Michigan thoroughly dominated. Whether it was two explosive Donovan Edwards touchdown runs in the first quarter that set the tone, a Michigan front four that got consistent pressure all night on Penix or a secondary that did not allow any of the Huskies typical massive gains through the air, it was a win for the old style of play. Yes, the officiating favored Michigan slightly, but it did not have any real effect on the game. Flip the results of some controversial penalties called (or not called) and Michigan still mashes Washington. 

Maybe in another universe, Penix was an inferno that carved up the Wolverines secondary and the Huskies would have been the top dog. Instead, the victors were in maize and blue to close out the 2023 season.