How will the newcomers adjust to life in the Power Five?

With four programs entering the league, the entire dynamic in the Big 12, from scheduling to road trips to the financial outlook, will be different than ever before. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF have all experienced success on the field throughout their respective histories, but an uptick in competition will undoubtedly come with growing pains.

BYU (o/u 5.5 wins in 2023) has faced Power Five competition and found success in those matchups, more consistently than its fellow newcomers, but that has largely come from herculean offensive efforts in recent years. An uptick in defensive talent and consistency will be necessary to keep up.

Cincinnati (5.5) reached the pinnacle of Group of Five achievement when it qualified for the College Football Playoff in 2021, but the coach that was the architect of that rise, and much of the talent he recruited, now resides in Madison, Wis.

Houston (4.5) has a coach in Dana Holgorsen that has made a career out of tormenting the Big 12 with his electric offenses, but turnover on both sides of the ball could spell trouble in his first run with the Cougars.

UCF (6.5) seems poised to have the best shot at success in year one with an exciting returnee at quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee running Gus Malzahn’s offense, and an infusion of talent from the portal. Even still, the Knights have not faced a regular season schedule that featured more than two Power Five opponents since 2013. Can their depth hold up to the grind of their schedule?

While it would be foolish to completely write off any of these programs, they will certainly face an uphill battle in year one before the dividends of joining the league fully come to fruition.

Can either Oklahoma or Texas go out in style?

The Sooners and Longhorns enter the Big 12’s revolving door heading in the opposite direction and both, as always, have aspirations of a conference title and playoff appearance. The perennial favorites find themselves at the top of the odds list once again, but can one — or both — make a return to Arlington one last time?

If Dillon Gabriel can stay healthy, Oklahoma certainly has the offensive firepower to compete with anyone else in the conference. An influx of talent from the fourth-ranked high school recruiting class and the ninth-ranked transfer class (per the 247 Sports Composite) will certainly help those efforts.

The big question in Norman is whether or not the defense makes strides in year two of the Brent Venables era. As a coach whose reputation precedes him on that side of the ball, Venables would likely be at the front of the line demanding improvement. If the improvement is even marginal, the Sooners certainly have the talent to win every game on their conference schedule. If the defense remains stagnant — or worse, regresses — the Sooner faithful might start to question if they have the right coach to lead them into the SEC.

As for the Longhorns, stop me if you’ve heard this one before…they have the most talented roster in the conference on paper, and if they can just avoid a random loss to (insert less-talented team here), the sky is the limit.

We all know the drill, and the memes, at this point, but 2023 truly is now or never for the Longhorns, who are in the midst of their longest conference title drought in program history. Quinn Ewers taking a step forward (more on that later) is key to achieving their lofty goals and finally burying the demons that have amassed since 2009. 

All eyes will be on Fair Park in Dallas on Oct. 7 as the two titans clash as Big 12 foes for the final time. 

Will TCU produce an encore performance in 2023?

It’s safe to say that no one outside of the locker room in Fort Worth predicted the Frogs would play for a national title in Sonny Dykes’ first year. At The Three Technique, we had them struggling to make a bowl. A relentless offense and an opportunistic defense made those preseason projections obsolete quickly.

With so many stars moving on, even the most optimistic among the fan base would have to agree that recapturing the magic from last season will prove difficult. But just how much of a dropoff occurs will have reverberations throughout the conference. 

Despite losing offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Dykes’ reputation means confidence should remain high on that side of the ball. Chandler Morris brings experience to the quarterback position, and portal pickups JoJo Earle (Alabama) and John Paul Richardson (Oklahoma State) will give him elite targets to help the offense not miss a beat.

No one accused the Frogs’ defense of being elite a season ago, but the unit had a knack for making big plays in big moments. Can that clutch DNA translate to the 2023 team? If it can, TCU will at worst spoil the fortunes of other conference contenders and at best play for a conference title yet again.

Can talented quarterbacks take the next step?

In a recent episode of The Three Technique, we ranked our top five Big 12 signal-callers and noted that many of them enter 2023 with something to prove. When looking across the league, you will also notice that there are very few “neutral” projected starting quarterbacks. Almost every fan base is thrilled or terrified about the prospects of their QB1, with few, if any, finding themselves in between.

By nature of his role at a marquee program, and his accolades as a recruit, Quinn Ewers draws the most attention and scrutiny. Without star running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, the burden of leading an explosive offense lies squarely on the shoulders of the redshirt sophomore. Ewers has flashed the potential he showed as a high school star, but whether or not he can put it all together more consistently will determine if Texas reaches its ceiling.

Elsewhere, Baylor and Iowa State have put all their eggs in the baskets of Blake Shapen and Hunter Dekkers, respectively. Both underperformed expectations and will need to step up to carry their teams to heights they have reached in recent years. Likewise, BYU’s Kedon Slovis flashed Heisman potential as a freshman and sophomore, but will need to bounce back from a down year at Pitt.

Texas Tech’s Tyler Shough and Oklahoma’s Gabriel have battled injuries, but if they stay healthy could be considered the best in the league by season’s end. The depth in talent is real, but it is time for many Big 12 quarterbacks to transition from being good on paper to displaying their talent on the field.

Who will position themselves to fill the power vacuum in the future?

A not-so-bold prediction: this will be the underlying theme that everyone will overanalyze all season. With the two biggest brands in the conference departing, the scramble to fill the void left behind will be a fierce battle on and off the field. 

Of course, cementing yourself as a perennial contender in a power conference is a years, sometimes decades-long process. But what if Texas Tech capitalizes on potential and a favorable home/road split and makes a run to Arlington? What if Oklahoma State redeems its disappointment from last season’s stretch run with a 10+ win season? What if Kansas State goes back-to-back? What if one of the new programs shocks the world and becomes this year’s TCU? The Frogs played for a title. What if they show they have staying power?

The most intriguing and entertaining aspect of this league is the parity year in and year out. None of the above scenarios seem too far-fetched, and in future seasons, any one of them would all but guarantee a spot in an expanded playoff.

Of course, we’re still a year away from the new-look Big 12 and playoff expansion, and this season is what matters most to everyone involved. But it will be fascinating to see who sets themselves up for success in the new paradigm 2024 will bring.