Welcome to the Three Tech Pod Bowl Mania Megacast! You can find the full episode above if you’d like to watch the full episode! We spent two hours diving into these college football bowl season matchups, picking winners, and Trey helped those of you out who love the confidence pools as well. Merry Christmas and Happy Bowl Season from our entire team! 

Saturday, Dec. 16:

Myrtle Beach Bowl — Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. Ohio, 11 AM ET on ESPN, Conway, S.C.

Records – Georgia Southern 6-6, Ohio 9-3

Georgia Southern went 6-6 with an offense that put up over 30 points per game until its four-game losing streak to end the season. Ohio went 9-3 with an elite defense, but absolutely no offense. A tough loss to Miami (OH) kept the Bobcats out of the MAC Championship Game, and now they are dealing with multiple portal entries. With quarterback Kurtis Rourke, wide receiver Miles Cross, their two top running backs, and a linebacker in the portal, Ohio doesn’t look very similar to the regular season squad. The Bobcats may have to turn to their third-string quarterback in Parker Navarro, who would be the active leader in both passing (65 yards) and rushing (107 yards). 

Trey’s Confidence: Ohio, 11-15 Points

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl — Jacksonville State (-3.5) vs. Louisiana, 2:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, New Orleans, LA.

Records – Jacksonville State: 8-4, Louisiana: 6-6

Jacksonville State made the move to the FBS this season in style, obliterating its preseason win total of 4.5 en route to an 8-4 debut. Both the offense (third in total yardage in Conference USA) and the defense (second) excelled when needed as the Gamecocks found multiple ways to win. Louisiana qualified for bowl season on the final day of the regular season by beating rival UL-Monroe, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have to think they missed an opportunity for something even bigger. Five of their six losses were to teams that finished .500 or worse, and four of the six were one-possession games. This game should be a slugfest, as both squads want to lean on the running game and their defenses. Jacksonville State attempts just 26.8 passes per game (108th in FBS), while Louisiana attempts only 28 (98th).

Trey’s Confidence: Jacksonville State, 33-35 points

Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl — Miami (OH) at Appalachian State (-5.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Orlando, Fla.

Records – Miami (OH): 11-2, Appalachian State: 8-5

The champions of the MAC enjoyed their best season since Big Ben was the signal-caller, but the RedHawks will likely look to third-string quarterback Henry Hesson after starter Brett Gabbert’s season-ending injury and backup Aveon Smith entering the portal. Hesson has registered just five career pass attempts, so look for Chuck Martin and Co. to lean heavily on running back Rashad Amos, who has scored nine touchdowns in his last six games, and their defense, which ranks seventh in the country in points allowed (16.15 PPG). Appalachian State started the year slowly at 3-4, but then rattled off five straight wins to reach the Sun Belt Championship Game. The offense took center stage on that stretch run, as the Mountaineers averaged 40.4 PPG during the winning streak. Quarterback Joey Aguilar set program records for passing yards (3,546), completions (275) and touchdown passes (33) this year, and averaged 321.4 yards of total offense during the five-game winning streak. The ‘Neers’ offense might be too much in this one.

Trey’s Confidence: Appalachian State, 21-24 points

Isleta New Mexico Bowl — New Mexico State (-2.5) vs. Fresno State, 5:45 p.m. on ESPN, Albuquerque, N.M.

Records – New Mexico State: 10-4, Fresno State: 8-4

Jerry Kill might need to be checked for a secret stash of miracle dust. New Mexico State used to be the punch line, the non-conference game you wished your team scheduled. In 2023, the Aggies ran all the way to the Conference USA Championship Game and a 10-win season. They take on a Fresno State team that lost its last three, including a blowout against San José State. Head coach Jeff Tedford was forced to step away with health concerns. The Bulldogs lost defensive playmakers Chrishawn Gordon and Raymond Scott to the portal, plus they are also battling injuries in the trenches. The Aggies’ gunslinger Diego Pavia injured his elbow in the conference title game, so his status is worth monitoring. If he’s healthy, bet on the scrappy Aggies to finish their season on a high note. 

Trey’s Confidence: New Mexico State, 10-13 points

Starco Brands LA Bowl — UCLA (-4) vs. Boise State, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Inglewood, Calif.

Records – UCLA: 7-5, Boise State: 8-5

A conference champion against a team beset by coaching rumors and transfer portal entries. This should be a no-brainer right? Not necessarily. Boise State knocked off UNLV in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, but the Broncos are without their top two quarterback options. Starter Taylen Green has since committed to Arkansas, while his backup was lost for the season due to injury. It’s likely true freshman CJ Tiller is pressed into duty against the Bruins. The overwhelming positive, however, is that the game-breaker at running back (and Colt Brennan Award winner) Ashton Jeanty is back and will play in the bowl game. UCLA is missing a host of playmakers, including Dante Moore (portal) and the NFL-bound edge rusher Laiatu Latu. It’s also worth noting that UCLA could be without starting running back Carson Steele, offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson, and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who took the same role at rival USC.

Trey’s Confidence: UCLA, 19-22 points

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl — California vs. Texas Tech (-2.5), 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, Shreveport, La.

Records – California: 6-6, Texas Tech: 6-6

The Red Raiders fell well shy of the Big 12 Championship predictions that some forecasted this past summer. An inconsistent offense that was hampered all the more by the loss of starting signal-caller Tyler Shough (Louisville) to a season-ending injury against West Virginia. They have also lost multiple offensive starters to the portal, including left tackle Monroe Mills and wide receivers Myles Price and Loic Fouonji. Behren Morton should be healthy for the game, per head coach Joey McGuire, giving the Red Raiders’ offense its best chance at success. The Golden Bears have their new quarterback for next season in North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers, but for the bowl game they are going to once again turn to third-stringer Fernando Mendoza (1,447 yards, 13 touchdowns). The Golden Bears offense overachieved this season, averaging 34 points over their final three wins to reach the postseason. The defense, on the other hand, was anything but stingy this season. Take the offense you’re more confident in here. 

Trey’s Confidence: Cal, 7-9 points

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl — Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion (-2.5), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN, Charlotte, N.C.

Records – Western Kentucky: 7-5, Old Dominion: 6-6

Potential chaos. That’s what you’re getting in the first ever Famous Toastery Bowl. Western Kentucky lost nearly its entire starting offensive line to the portal, including two-time First Team All-CUSA selection Quantavious Leslie. Malachi Corley is an NFL prospect out wide and could also sit out this game. Still, Austin Reed threw for 3,340 yards and 31 touchdowns this season en route to a 7-5 record. The Monarchs’ 76th-ranked defense was truly average this season, forcing just 16 turnovers. They will need to keep up with the Hilltoppers in Charlotte, but they will be without receiver Javon Harvey, who recently committed to Texas A&M. Most notably, they are without star linebacker Jason Henderson with an injury. Henderson played nearly 900 snaps and led the country in tackles. The Monarchs offense is mostly intact, while the same can generally be said for the Western Kentucky defense. Despite the questions surrounding the trenches, Western Kentucky has a 60.2% chance of winning, per ESPN Analytics. 

Trey’s Confidence: WKU, 18-21 points

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl — UTSA (-12.5) vs. Marshall, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, Frisco, Tex.

Records – UTSA: 8-4, Marshall: 6-6

Roadrunners fans rejoice: Jeff Traylor is staying at UTSA. While San Antonio had to sweat out interviews from Texas A&M and Houston, neither program ultimately offered the Gilmer legend the job. Now, his focus is on winning UTSA’s first ever bowl game against a Marshall program that is set to miss a good chunk of its offensive production. Frank Harris has one more game to cement his legacy as the greatest quarterback in the young program’s history. They might build him a statue if he wins this game and earns UTSA’s ninth win of the year. Marshall limped to a 6-6 record and will potentially be playing with an entirely new backfield. Take the birds and lay the points. 

Trey’s Confidence: UTSA, 38-40 points

Thursday, Dec. 21

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl — South Florida vs. Syracuse (-3), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, Boca Raton, Fla.

Records – South Florida: 6-6, Syracuse: 6-6

SOUTH FLORIDA IS BOWLING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2018! The Bulls recorded a top 50 scoring offense, averaging over 30 points a contest. Syracuse, when it didn’t mess around with the playbook, averaged 25.5 points per game. Advantage Bulls! The problem lies in the defense…they ranked 131st out of 133 teams in total defense, allowing a whopping 455.2 yards of offense per game. With Garrett Shrader likely healthy and ready to go for the Orange, we lean toward Syracuse being a more complete team, even with the coaching changes. But hey, roll the dice and pick those Bulls! 

Trey’s Confidence: Syracuse, 12-15 points

Friday, Dec. 22

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl — Georgia Tech vs. UCF (-4.5), 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Tampa, Fla.

Records – Georgia Tech: 6-6, UCF: 6-6

Longtime listeners know that Garrett and Mitch have been all aboard the bowl bound Ramblin’ Wreck since this summer. We aren’t jumping off now! Georgia Tech went 6-6, matching the mark for the first year Knights out of the Big 12. The Yellow Jackets got solid play from Texas A&M transfer Haynes King (2,755 yards, 26 touchdowns) and an opportunistic defense…just don’t look at total defensive rankings. UCF finished with the 34th-scoring offense, averaging 32.5 points per game. The current line of 4.5 in favor of the Floridians feels about right, especially considering both teams have minimal players in the portal. You can take the favorites, or you can ride one more time with the Wreck in 2023. Your choice. 

Trey’s Confidence: UCF, 7-10 points

Saturday, Dec. 23

76 Birmingham Bowl — Troy (-7.5) vs. Duke, 12 p.m. ET on ABC, Birmingham, Ala.

Records – Troy: 11-2, Duke: 7-5

Both teams watched their head coaches walk out the door during the carousel, leaving a subdued reluctance over this year’s Birmingham Bowl. Jon Sumrall left for Tulane while Mike Elko is back at Texas A&M. To their credit, most of the Trojans’ roster is still there with linebacker Jayden McDonald being the only impact player to leave so far. The same can’t be said for Duke. The Blue Devils are reeling from Riley Leonard’s commitment to Notre Dame, while also watching five other starters walk out the door. Duke also has several guys dealing with injuries and weighing their NFL futures. At full strength, we would probably pick Duke. For a bowl game that kicks off at 12 p.m. ET in Birmingham, we’re riding with the Trojans and the points. 

Trey’s Confidence: Troy, 9-12 points

Camellia Bowl — Arkansas State (-1) vs. Northern Illinois, 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Montgomery, Ala.

Records – Arkansas State: 6-6, Northern Illinois: 6-6

Butch Jones bounced back from a 70-point schalacking at the hands of Oklahoma to lead the Red Wolves to a bowl game in his third year as coach. Northern Illinois also fought to a 6-6 record, but enters the ball game extremely thin at receiver with Trayvon Randolph, its best playmaker, in the portal. The Red Wolves have a few entries into the portal, mostly on the defensive side. We don’t anticipate much defense being played in this one, so let’s roll with the betting favorite Arkansas State and freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor (2,300 yards, 15 touchdowns). 

Trey’s Confidence: Arkansas State, 1-3 points

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl — James Madison (-3) vs. Air Force, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Fort Worth, Texas

Records – James Madison: 11-1, Air Force: 8-4

It was a historic 11-1 season for the Dukes of James Madison. Despite originally being ruled ineligible for postseason play as they finish their second year transitioning into the FBS, a drought of 6-6 teams allowed James Madison to secure a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. While Curt Cignetti and multiple coaches from the Dukes’ staff are headed to Indiana to rebuild the Hoosiers, each Dukes player currently in the portal intends to play in the bowl game. We’ll take James Madison and one last ride over an Air Force team that limped to the conclusion of the regular season. 

Trey’s Confidence: James Madison: 29-32 points

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl — Georgia State vs. Utah State (-1), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Boise, Idaho

Records – Georgia State: 6-6, Utah State: 6-6

Despite their identical records, the season dynamic, and momentum heading into bowl season, could not be more different for these squads. The Aggies started 3-5, and all hopes of making the program’s 11th bowl in the past 13 seasons seemed to be lost when they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to hapless San Diego State. But after rallying to win that game in double overtime, Utah State won two of its last three, including a wild finish to knock off New Mexico in double overtime and achieve eligibility. The Panthers started hot, going 6-1 out of the gate, but they enter Boise in the midst of a five-game losing streak.To make matters worse, they lost leading rusher Marcus Carroll, leading receiver Robert Lewis, starting right tackle and a starting corner to the portal. We’ll lean toward the team with more positivity, and likely higher motivation, and take the Aggies.

Trey’s Confidence: Utah State, 5-8 points

68 Ventures Bowl — South Alabama (-16) vs. Eastern Michigan, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Mobile, Ala.

Records – South Alabama: 6-6, Eastern Michigan: 6-6

South Alabama was supposed to be a serious contender for the Sun Belt title this season, but fell well shy of that expectation with a 6-6 record. Still, a top 30 defense is nothing to sneeze at, especially when you’re only giving up 326.8 yards of total offense per game. Combine that with an offense that ranked 38th in total production and it’s hard to imagine this was a .500 team. The Jaguars are missing leading receiver Caullin Lacy and star running back La’Damian Webb to the portal and injury, respectively, but the offense should still be fine with quarterback Carter Bradley under center. Eastern Michigan finished 131st in total offense this year and just watched its starting quarterback hit the portal. If the points start flowing, this one could get out of hand.

Trey’s Confidence: South Alabama, 25-28 points

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl — Utah (-7) vs. Northwestern, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Las Vegas, Nev.

Records – Utah: 8-4, Northwestern: 7-5

Raise your hand if you had Northwestern in a bowl game this year…yeah, we didn’t either. Northwestern’s redemption arc under first-year coach David Braun is going to make for a fantastic Disney movie, especially if the Wildcats can close the campaign with a bowl win. Northwestern’s +10 turnover margin was good for seventh-best in the country. The Wildcats played smart football and allowed just 23.8 points per game. They did allow over 159 rushing yards per game, however, and that could be a concern against a Utes team that was most effective on the ground this year. Bryson Barnes, despite entering the transfer portal, is likely the Utes’ starting quarterback with Nate Johnson headed to the portal, so expect a ground-and-pound style attack from lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson. Utah is dealing with several portal entries and the potential loss of a couple more to the NFL draft. We still like Utah to win this game, but Northwestern could keep it close. 

Trey’s Confidence: Utah, 30-33 points

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl — Coastal Carolina vs. San José State (-10), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Honolulu, Hawaii

Records – Coastal Carolina: 7-5, San Jose State: 7-5

San José State may have started the year on the struggle bus at 1-5, but a six-game winning streak has the Spartans red hot heading into the postseason. Chevan Cordeiro threw for over 2,500 yards, and Kairee Robinson was an 1,100-yard rusher. The Spartans are missing their left tackle and starting tight end to the portal, but the roster is largely intact and healthy. The same cannot be said for Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers enjoyed a five-game winning streak in conference play that started with an upset over rival Appalachian State. But back-to-back losses to Army and James Madison quashed their conference hopes. Now, they are down to third-string quarterback Ethan Vasko and are without several other contributors on both sides of the ball. Take the Spartans on the Island. 

Trey’s Confidence: San José State, 36-39 points

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl — Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-3.5), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN, Detroit, Mich.

Records – Bowling Green: 7-5, Minnesota: 5-7

The boat rowing didn’t go as planned for PJ Fleck and the Minnesota Golden Gophers this year. Despite the Big Ten West lacking a real threat outside of Iowa, Minnesota only managed a 5-7 record. With multiple quarterbacks in the portal and injuries to several defensive starters, it could be an uphill climb for Minnesota. The Falcons won five of their last six, only dropping to Toledo in the penultimate week. Look for Terion Stewart to carry the load on the ground for the Falcons. The over/under is only 38.5, so I’d lean toward the more intact defense on gameday. The Falcons have First Team All-MAC corner Jalen Huskey in the portal but are more cohesive as a unit. We’ll take the Falcons plus the points. 

Trey’s Confidence: Bowling Green, 2-5 points

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl — Texas State (-4) vs. Rice, 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Dallas, Texas

Records – Texas State: 7-5, Rice: 6-6

Everything is bigger in Texas, and while the Bobcats and Owls will not capture headlines in the Lone Star State, they should combine for a fun matchup in Dallas. GJ Kinne’s investment in the portal paid off in spades as T.J. Finley led an electric, top 20 offensive attack. Rice, which qualified for bowl season in its regular season finale, sports a fun offense as well. JT Daniels medically retired, but his replacement AJ Padgett filled in nicely and has a dynamic weapon in Luke McCaffrey to get the ball to. In a matchup where neither defense really stands out, we’ll take the more dynamic offense and roll with the Bobcats. If they do win, I would not recommend celebrating by jumping in the Trinity River though…

Trey’s Confidence: Texas State, 16-20 points

Guaranteed Rate Bowl — Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, Phoenix, Ariz.

Records – Kansas: 8-4, UNLV: 9-4

No disrespect to Barry Odom and the Cinderella UNLV Rebels, but this feels like a bummer of a location for a Jayhawks team that won eight games for the first time since 2008. The Jayhawks look like they could be mostly healthy for this game outside of two starting offensive linemen. Kansas will need its dual running back threats in Devin Neal (1,209 yards, 15 touchdowns) and Daniel Hishaw Jr. to keep the ball away from an electric UNLV offense. Jayden Maiava (2,794 yards, 14 touchdowns) to Ricky White (1,386 receiving yards, seven touchdowns) will be the key connection to watch. In what could be a high-scoring affair, I like the Jayhawks to win, but the Rebels to cover. 

Trey’s Confidence: Kansas, 39-42 points

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl — Virginia Tech (-8) vs. Tulane, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN, Annapolis, Md.

Records – Virginia Tech: 6-6, Tulane: 11-2

Tulane missed out on its shot at a New Year’s Six bowl game by dropping the AAC Championship Game to SMU. Then, Willie Fritz took the job at Houston. It was a tough few days for the Green Wave, until they hired Jon Sumrall from Troy, that is. Still, they will need to construct a new two-deep after five starters, including receiver Chris Brazzell II and EDGE Keith Cooper Jr. left in the portal. The Green Wave are now dangerously thin at receiver. Virginia Tech makes its first bowl game under second-year head coach Brent Pry. Pry steadied the ship for the Hokies, and quarterback Kyron Drones threw for almost 2,000 yards on the campaign. While Virginia Tech has a starting tight end in the portal, that’s possibly the only omission from the bowl roster. There’s some momentum in Blacksburg right now, and it continues with a bowl victory over Tulane. 

Trey’s Confidence: Tulane, 16-18 points

Duke’s Mayo Bowl — North Carolina vs. West Virginia (-5.5), 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Charlotte, N.C.

Records – North Carolina: 8-4, West Virginia: 8-4

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl will be the first game in this slate where NFL draft opt-outs really take their toll. The Tar Heels will be missing six to seven players due to the portal, while they will have four starters opt out to begin their NFL futures. Most notably, star quarterback Drake Maye and linebacker Cedric Gray will not play. The Mountaineers saved Neal Brown’s job this year by rocketing to an 8-4 record. They have numerous players in the portal as well, but injuries to players to receiver Devin Carter and center Zach Frazier are most concerning. Frazier is confirmed to be out, but Carter could still play. West Virginia will still have the majority of its 49th-ranked rush defense, leading us to believe that the ‘Neers get their ninth win of the season. 

Trey’s Confidence: West Virginia, 19-22 points

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl — No. 15 Louisville (-7.5) vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET on Fox, San Diego, Calif.

Records – Louisville: 10-3, USC: 7-5

USC was one of the most disappointing teams in the country in 2023. With blue-chip recruits as far as the eye could see, USC fielded a helpless 122nd-ranked defense. Alex Grinch was fired midseason, but it was far too late. Now, USC is dealing with opt-outs for future NFL draft picks Caleb Williams, MarShawn Lloyd, Brenden Rice, and potentially Calen Bullock (although he hasn’t declared as of writing this). Louisville is fresh off a tremendous season under Jeff Brohm. The Cardinals played for an ACC championship and have the ingredients to be a force in the ACC for years to come. Louisville has lost some role players to the portal, but safety Cam’Ron Kelly will still play in the bowl game despite declaring for the draft. The Cardinals win this one by double digits. 

Trey’s Confidence: Louisville, 35-38 points

TaxAct Texas Bowl — Texas A&M (-3) vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, Houston, Texas

Records – Texas A&M: 7-5, Oklahoma State: 9-4

Party like it’s 2019? The Texas Bowl pits two of the more bipolar teams in the country against one another. The Cowboys looked like they were storming the road to Arlington to challenge Texas in the Big 12 title game. Then they got blown out by UCF 45-3, barely escaped BYU, and finally were crushed by the Longhorns. Texas A&M once again underachieved, letting the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU off the hook in what were all very winnable games. As a result, the Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher before the LSU game and opted to bring back Mike Elko. Texas A&M has seen a host of players hit the portal for the second straight season as a result. While the Aggies are down to their third-string quarterback in Jaylen Henderson, the Fresno State transfer played well to close the season. The future prospects in College Station appear bright with a program-building mentality being installed. Still, the Aggies’ roster is so chopped up with transfers and opt-outs, it’s hard to feel good about them winning a football game with an interim coach. We’ll lean Oklahoma State in this one with Ollie Gordon III being the best player on the field.*

*As of now, Gordon has not opted out or hit the portal, so we’ll assume he plays.*

Trey’s Confidence: Oklahoma State, 18-20 points

Thursday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl — No. 24 SMU (-10.5) vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET on ESPN, Boston, Mass.

Records – SMU: 11-2, Boston College: 6-6

Future ACC member SMU won its first conference championship in almost 40 years when it upset Tulane in New Orleans. The Mustangs will take on future conference foe Boston College in the Fenway Bowl with a 12-win season on the line. The Mustangs lost Preston Stone for the season against Navy to a broken leg, but that didn’t stop South Oak Cliff legend Kevin Jennings from stepping up in a big way. Jennings delivered the first Dallas ISD state title in over 60 years to local power South Oak Cliff in 2021. Two years later, he brought one to the Hilltop. SMU’s offense is largely untouched by the portal, while Boston College comes into play fairly banged up by injuries. The Ponies run wild in Boston to cap off an incredible season. 

Trey’s Confidence: SMU, 40-42 points

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl — Rutgers vs. Miami (FL) (-1), 2:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, Bronx, N.Y.

Records – Rutgers: 6-6, Miami (FL): 7-5

Perhaps the most time-honored (and lucrative) strategy in picking bowl games comes down to if you can nail one simple question: who wants to be there? Rutgers certainly closed its regular season with a whimper by losing four straight, but the Scarlet Knights qualified for a bowl on their own volition (they served as a replacement for Texas A&M in the 2021 Gator Bowl) for the first time since 2014. Miami had aspirations for an ACC Championship and looked like a dark horse playoff contender after its 4-0 start, but the Hurricanes limped to the finish line at 3-5. Oh, and they will have a third-string quarterback running the offense. The reward for both programs is an outdoor game in late December in The Bronx. You tell me which team will want to be there? If you’re looking for a matchup to consider on the field rather than analyzing the psychology of 18-24 year olds, Rutgers’ ability to run the football will decide this game. Miami allows only 97.1 YPG on the ground but will be without three NFL-bound starters. We like Rutgers to get it done in a close one.

Trey’s Confidence: Rutgers, 3-6 points

Pop-Tarts Bowl — No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State (-3), 5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN, Orlando, Fla.

Records – NC State: 9-3, Kansas State: 8-4

Dave Doeren quietly worked his magic yet again, reeling off five straight wins to close the regular season to put the Wolfpack on the cusp of just their second 10-win season in program history. This might have been his best coaching job to date, as he managed a quarterback carousel that included the benching of Brennan Armstrong in favor of MJ Morris, only to have Morris enter the portal after four appearances. Armstrong rose to the occasion for the final three games of the season, accounting for nine total touchdowns with no interceptions, and Doeren’s patented stingy defense allowed just 15.4 PPG during the winning streak. Kansas State fell short of its goal of returning to the Big 12 Championship Game, but not for lack of execution. The Wildcats finished second in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense, but went 1-4 in one-possession games. Avery Johnson will get the keys to the offense after Will Howard entered the portal, and the freshman phenom certainly looked the part when he got the chance to see the field this fall. This should be a fun, even battle, so we will err on the side of experience under center and take Armstrong and the Wolfpack to bring home the win.

Trey’s Confidence: NC State, 18-22 points

Valero Alamo Bowl — No. 14 Arizona (-3) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma, 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, San Antonio, Texas

Records – Arizona: 9-3, Oklahoma: 10-2

A hearty round of applause to the Arizona Wildcats and Jedd Fisch for taking a previously 1-11 squad to 9-3 in his third year. Arizona was a program that had been criminally mismanaged over the last few years. Between a lack of recruiting and dearth of development, the Wildcats became an afterthought to everyone save “Pac-12 After Dark” enthusiasts. Standout passer Noah Fifita came on in relief of Jayden de Laura after an injury and never looked back. Fifita registered 23 touchdowns and over 2,500 yards. While Oklahoma is missing a plethora of starters, including quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Arizona will likely only be down left tackle Jordan Morgan and receiver Jacob Cowing. Both players accepted invites to the Senior Bowl. The Sooners are likely to take a step back as they head into the SEC. It could be a long offseason in Norman, especially after the Wildcats earn their 10th win of the year. 

Trey’s Confidence: Arizona, 25-28 points

Friday, Dec. 29 

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl — No. 22 Clemson (-4.5) vs. Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Jacksonville, Fla.

Records – Clemson: 8-4, Kentucky: 7-5 

Clemson started the 2023 as slowly as you could imagine, getting plastered by Duke in the season opener. While an 8-4 season is disappointing to those in Death Valley (Clemson had won double-digit games every year since 2010), it’s a fantastic floor to bounce off of. The Tigers will be without the services of numerous defensive stars against Kentucky, however. Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Andrew Mukuba, and Nate Wiggins are all key contributors who have played their last games in Clemson Orange. Kentucky, meanwhile, had running back Ray Davis and corner Andru Phillips declare for the draft, but Davis opted to play in the bowl game. For the Wildcats, it’s not the issue of personnel, but talent and scheme. Kentucky’s offense was dreadful this year, finishing 100th in total production. Both offenses average around 29 points per game, so this game comes down to total depth. We’ll take Clemson to win a close one. 

Trey’s Confidence: Clemson, 27-30 points

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl — No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5), 2 p.m. ET on CBS, El Paso, Texas

Records – Oregon State: 8-4, Notre Dame: 9-3

There isn’t much standing between these two teams after the regular season. Oregon State underwent a coaching change after Jonathan Smith and several position coaches headed to East Lansing. As a result, the Beavers have at least 12 players who will miss this game after entering the portal or battling injuries. Notre Dame watched the flood gates open to the transfer portal as at least 10 Irish entered quickly. Notre Dame also has several opt-outs, including Sam Hartman. With several missing pieces on the offensive line, receiving corps, and potentially in the running back room, points could be at a real premium. Notre Dame likely wins a low-scoring affair in West Texas. 

Trey’s Confidence: Notre Dame, 24-27 points

AutoZone Liberty Bowl — Memphis vs. Iowa State (-8.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Memphis, Tenn.

Records – Memphis: 9-3, Iowa State: 7-5

Memphis is staying home for its bowl game against Iowa State. The Tigers just missed out on a chance to play for a conference championship after losing to SMU in the penultimate week of the season. Quarterback Seth Henigan put on a show during the 9-3 season, throwing for 3,519 yards and 28 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson carried 177 times for over 1,000 yards, while Roc Taylor logged nearly 1,000 receiving yards. They’ll be opposed by a Cyclones defense that gave up only 21.7 points per game. Key defensive back TJ Tampa hasn’t opted out to head to the NFL draft yet, but it is something worth watching. Iowa State’s defense wasn’t as elite as it’s been in previous seasons, so we actually like Memphis to at least keep it close here. Mitch will take the Tigers outright.

Trey’s Confidence: Iowa State, 22-25 points

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic — No. 9 Mizzou (-2.5) vs. No. 7 Ohio State, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, Arlington, Texas

Records – Missouri: 10-2, Ohio State: 11-1

Have you talked to your family about 11-win Missouri…in football? We are staring down the barrel of Eli Drinkwitz putting together one of the more remarkable rebuilds in modern college football. Even better, Missouri expects every player still on the team (only one player in the portal) to be available against Ohio State. The same cannot be said of the Buckeyes: Kyle McCord, Julian Fleming, Chip Trayanum, Miyan Williams, and more entered the portal. A further six or seven names like Marvin Harrison Jr have yet to announce if they will play or opt out. It’s not all bad for the Buckeyes, though. A talented group of starters, headlined by Emeka Egbuka and Jack Sawyer have announced they will play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, without a proven option at quarterback and a full roster to play with, we’ll roll with the Tigers here. 

Trey’s Confidence: Missouri, 12-14 points

Saturday, Dec. 30 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl — No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State, 12 p.m, ET on ESPN, Atlanta, Ga.

Records – Ole Miss: 10-2, Penn State: 10-2

Both teams have a fantastic opportunity to cement themselves as playoff contenders heading into next season’s 12-team expansion. For the Rebels, they continue to build explosive offenses through the transfer portal, but it was the defense that stepped up to play a pivotal role this season. Penn State was only held back by a lethargic offense that disappeared on the biggest stages. The Nittany Lions have lost defensive coordinator Manny Diaz to Duke, and they also hired Andy Kotelnicki to come in to run the offense. The pain point for Penn State is Chop Robinson opting to sit the game out to prepare for the NFL draft. The Nittany Lions have an elite defense, but I wonder if Ole Miss has the offensive horses to score just one more point than Drew Allar can muster. Penn State is the better team, but this is a potential chaos scenario. The key for Penn State will be establishing the run early and often to keep the Rebels off balance. 

Trey’s Confidence: Penn State, 31-33 points

TransPerfect Music City Bowl — Auburn (-3.5) vs. Maryland, 2 p.m. ET on ABC, Nashville, Tenn.

Records – Auburn: 6-6, Maryland: 7-5

In a year where many bowl matchups just seem a bit off, this one seems oddly perfect. Both the Tigers and Terps have higher aspirations for their respective programs, but neither had the horses to keep up with a brutal schedule this year. The end result is a date in Nashville on New Year’s Weekend where Auburn’s elite rushing attack squares off against Maryland’s dynamic passing game. Neither offense is built to exploit the opposing defense’s weaknesses on paper, so whoever can find a matchup to exploit will likely win the game. We trust Taulia Tagovailoa to move the ball more consistently than Payton Thorne, so we’ll take Maryland. 

Trey’s Confidence: Maryland, 7-9 points

Capital One Orange Bowl — No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN, Miami, Fla.

Records – Georgia: 12-1, Florida State: 13-0

Welcome to the battle of snubbed playoff contenders! In all seriousness, Georgia is one of the four best teams in the country and Florida State absolutely had a right to be in the playoff. We are still reeling from the historic damage that the committee did to the legitimacy of the game. But enough of our soap box. This game comes down to the reality that Jordan Travis isn’t walking through that door. Even with a healthy Tate Rodemaker, Florida State’s offense just wasn’t the same. Carson Beck is still contemplating his future plans, and the potential opt-out list for Georgia is a mile long. But none of that is enough to prevent us from going all-in on the Bulldogs. After all, this is the kind of “rat poison” that Kirby Smart lives for. 

Trey’s Confidence: Georgia, 40-42 points

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl — Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3), 4:30 p.m. ET on The CW Network, Tucson, Ariz.

Records – Toledo: 11-2, Wyoming: 8-4

Wyoming coach Craig Bohl announced he will retire after the game, and his final contest should be a good one. Bohl’s Cowboys lean heavily on their defense, which trailed only Air Force in points allowed in the Mountain West at a salty 22.9 PPG. Toledo enjoyed a banner year, bringing home a MAC West Division title behind the dual-threat phenom Dequan Finn. Finn entered the portal, however, so it appears the fate of the Rockets will rest on the shoulders of backup Tucker Gleason (209.1 passer rating in limited action) and stud running back Peny Boone (1,400 yards, 15 touchdowns). That rushing attack, combined with a stingy defense, should be enough to put Toledo over the top despite Finn’s absence.

Trey’s Confidence: Toledo, 13-15 points

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl — Wisconsin vs. No. 13 LSU (-10), 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Tampa, Fla.

Records – Wisconsin: 7-5, LSU: 9-3

Bowl games have a funny way of getting sideways from projection in a hurry. You just never know who will be motivated, who will make a last-minute decision to opt out, and who had bad shrimp at the bowl week event and is now unavailable. On paper, though, the ReliaQuest Bowl appears to be one of the more lopsided matchups on this year’s slate. As of writing, we are still awaiting the decisions of Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, and wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., but even if Garrett Nussmeier gets the call behind center, this could very quickly look like the last time LSU faced a Big Ten West foe in a bowl game. LSU’s defense has been much maligned this year, but with Braelon Allen opting out and a bevy of injuries and transfers at the offensive skill positions, it doesn’t seem like the Badgers will be able to take advantage. We love what Luke Fickell is doing to evolve the program to compete with the Big Ten’s best, but there won’t be enough black eyed peas and cornbread in the entire state to luck into a victory on New Year’s Day.

Trey’s Confidence: LSU, 41-43 points

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl — No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon (-17.5), 1 p.m. ET on ESPN, Glendale, Ariz.

Records – Liberty: 13-0, Oregon: 11-2

This is one of the most intriguing matchups as undefeated Liberty takes on a disappointed Oregon team. On paper, the Ducks should be the heavy favorite. *Checks the betting line* Yup, they definitely are. Liberty’s season was fantastic, but going undefeated against Conference USA opponents isn’t exactly the big leagues. Still, Kaidon Salter’s 31 touchdowns should have the attention of the Ducks if they don’t want to be upset on the national stage. The Ducks are better in every respect, including scoring droves of points. This game might ultimately come down to who suits up for Oregon and who prepares for the draft. As of writing this, only center Jackson Powers-Johnson is sitting out. If Bo Nix changes his mind, or if Troy Franklin and a host of defensive players leave, this tune changes. But with Nix saying he plans on playing, I fully expect the rest of the roster to follow their leader into battle one last time. 

Trey’s Confidence: Oregon, 36-38 points

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl — No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee (-8.5), 1 p.m. ET on ABC, Orlando, Fla.

Records – Iowa: 10-3, Tennessee: 8-4

An object that can’t move meets a force that can’t stop anything. Iowa’s offense, or lack thereof, is a meme so ingrained into the college football consciousness that it does not require a full breakdown here. But for the sake of making a point, Iowa has scored more than 28 total points just once in their last 25 matchups against Power Five competition. Conversely, the Vols have lost only one game in the Josh Heupel era when they’ve held their opponent to 28 points or fewer. The Hawkeyes have a knack for drawing teams down into the mud with them, but the talent level at Tennessee should be enough to ultimately pull through. The Vols defense is suspect, especially against the pass, but the Hawkeyes have shown time and time again they are not capable of exploiting those matchups.

Trey’s Confidence: Tennessee, 27-29 points   

Playoff games will get their own preview.