It is a pivotal time for a lot of programs. The playoff race outside of Georgia is completely muddled. Below is the path for each school that has a legitimate shot in the playoff race and how they can make the top 4 by the end of the season. 

Georgia: 

Easiest Path: Win out

Other path without needing help from outside help: 1 Loss to Alabama in SEC Championship Game

Pretty simple path here for Georgia. Make it to the SEC Championship game unscathed, and the Bulldogs are essentially in; they would just have to play for seeding. To not leave any doubt, they would need to beat Alabama. 

Alabama:

Easiest/Only Path: Win out

Alabama would need to win out to truly claim its spot in the playoff. That would include a win over a ranked Auburn team on the road and the best team in the country in Georgia. A loss at any stage would eliminate the Tide, as too many one loss teams would have a claim to the top 4. 

Oregon:

Easiest/Only Path: Win out and have Ohio State win the Big Ten.

Oregon’s path is pretty simple: win out and have Ohio State win the Big Ten. As long as the Ducks have that win over the Buckeyes, they’ll be at least ahead of them. If Michigan or Michigan State wins the Big Ten with one loss only, then things will get complicated for Oregon. The Ohio State win gets nullified as one or both of Michigan and Michigan State would beat Ohio State, weakening the resumé. Everything else is pretty straight forward for Oregon. 

Ohio State/Michigan State/Michigan:

Easiest/Only Path: Win out. 

I have decided to group these Big Ten schools together, as they’re all in the same boat. None of the teams can afford a loss. This triangle will take care of itself as Ohio State plays Michigan State and Michigan in the last two weeks of the season as de-facto elimination games. All of these teams have trap games on their schedules as well. Michigan and Michigan State both play Penn State. Ohio State also plays Purdue. The issue that presents itself is if both Michigan and Michigan State beat Ohio State. Even in this situation, Michigan is the loser here, as it doesn’t get the Alabama treatment from the committee. 

Cincinnati: 

Easiest/Only Path: Win out and pray. 

Cincinnati should be in the top 4. Ohio State has lost to Oregon and Cincinnati actually has the best resume win in the top 10 outside of Michigan State and Oregon. Did I mention that the Bearcats haven’t lost yet either? The committee is acting like they did lose, and I totally get it, given their struggles post-UCF. 

Cincinnati can win out and have quality wins over Notre Dame and Houston, but it’ll need help. The Bearcats would need help on the outside, mainly having Oregon, Oklahoma AND Oklahoma State lose a game. This is actually somewhat realistic, as Oregon has looked shaky for most of the season and has played to the level of the competition, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play each other and may play each other twice in back-to-back weeks. A split in this matchup would be lovely for Cincinnati. 

All of this would make Cincinnati a default option. It shouldn’t have to come to this, but the committee has made it so. 

Oklahoma:

Easiest/Only Path: Win out. 

Pretty simple here for Oklahoma — win out and have multiple wins over either Iowa State or Oklahoma State and it’ll get in. (I would include Baylor here, but an OU win this weekend eliminates the Bears from Big 12 Championship Game contention). Any loss for the Sooners eliminates them from contention as they are really far back to begin with. 

Notre Dame:

Easiest/Only Path: Win out and pray. 

Notre Dame’s only real challenge left to close out the season is a trip to Charlottesville to face Virginia. Beat Virginia and the Irish should be smooth sailing to an 11-1 record. Normally, that can get you in the playoff most years, but they lost to the best team they faced pretty convincingly in Cincinnati in South Bend. To their credit, if things do break right in the Big Ten West race, they could boast their win over a 9-3 Wisconsin team. 

Notre Dame has the same exact path as Cincinnati outside of the fact that Notre Dame also needs Cincinnati to lose as well. 

Oklahoma State: 

Easiest/Only Path: Win out and pray.

Oklahoma State has the same path as Notre Dame. The advantage that Oklahoma State has over Notre Dame is that by the virtue of the head-to-head win that Cincinnati has over Notre Dame, the Bearcats will be ranked over Notre Dame. Oklahoma State can leapfrog Notre Dame and maybe even Cincinnati if the Cowboys win out. 

Wake Forest:

Easiest/Only Path: Prayer.

I’m doing this as a courtesy. The Deacons have zero shot to make the playoff, but they are a one-loss Power 5 team, so I’m giving them the due diligence. Wake would literally need to win out convincingly and have everyone in front of it essentially lose out to make it. The ACC is down this year, and even though they have good teams in Pitt and NC State, they’re not Clemson. New Year’s Six bid at the Peach Bowl will be the goal.