The 2022 Quick Lane Bowl features two teams that are in the midst of surprisingly successful seasons. We have the New Mexico State Aggies versus the Bowling Green Falcons.

How We Got Here:

New Mexico State: 

New Mexico State is arguably the toughest job in FBS history. It’s a team that has struggled to get recruits and talent. To emphasize this point, out of all the FBS teams, New Mexico State is 125th in winning percentage, only has been involved in four bowl games in the history of the program prior to this season, and the program has a winning record against two FBS teams in total. This program is BAD. That is changing under head coach Jerry Kill. Kill has been successful at every stop. Having built up programs such as Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, and Minnesota, Kill was given the task to make the New Mexico State program good for the first time. 

Coach Kill has actually exceeded expectations and this is why the Aggies are in a bowl game. The Aggies did hit some bumps to begin the tenure, having lost their first four games against Nevada, Minnesota, UTEP, and Wisconsin. To their credit, the Nevada game and the UTEP game were closer than expected. Those good signs eventually translated into a win, dominating Hawaii for their first win. The slight hiccup to FIU aside and the expected loss to Missouri, the Aggies closed the season strong. Highlights include a win against rival New Mexico, a blowout win on the road against Liberty, and another win on the road against UMass. 

Bowling Green:

Bowling Green under Scot Loeffler has been very uneven. This makes sense given the fact that Loeffler inherited a bad team from Mike Jinks and is rebuilding the team. Then the COVID season in 2020 made teams look way worse than they did. It did seem like Loeffler would get fired if he did not make a bowl. It did look like the Falcons would not make a bowl, having lost four of their first six games. The losses included FCS Eastern Kentucky and a blowout loss to Buffalo at home. It was not all bad however, as they had wins against Marshall and Akron. Things started to turn at the end of the season, winning four of their last six games, including beating conference champion Toledo on the road. This turnaround has been incredible for this once proud program.

Keys To The Game:

New Mexico State:

Pass Defense: New Mexico State boasts one of the best pass defenses in the country. Granted, this has been boosted by playing the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota and their so-called passing attack. Matt McDonald is one of the better quarterbacks that the Aggies have faced. Bowling Green is one-dimensional offensively, sporting the 121st rushing offense in the country. So if DL Lazarus Williams and LB Chris Ojoh can continue to put pressure on the awful Bowling Green offensive line (T-107th in the nation in sacks allowed) and the likes of DBs Syrus Dumas and Bryce Jackson are on their game, this can be a very interesting matchup. 

Run the Ball: New Mexico State is not a good passing team, as it ranks 120th in passing offense. The Aggies have used two quarterbacks all year, and while Diego Pavia is the better passer of the two, the team has put up pedestrian numbers in that forefront. The Bowling Green rushing defense finished 86th in the nation, and New Mexico State finished 66th in the nation in rushing offense. Using their rotation of backs in Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones, along with the aforementioned QB Pavia, the Aggies can put points up on the Falcons. 

Bowling Green:

Keep the Defense Honest: As mentioned earlier, Matt McDonald is a great quarterback, as Bowling Green has the 59th-ranked passing offense in the country. With the New Mexico State passing defense being a lock down unit, the Falcons will have to run the ball more than expected. The Aggies rushing defense is 76th in the country, so opportunities will be there for leading rusher Jaison Patterson. 

KISS on Defense (Keep It Simple Stupid): The Aggies are not great offensively. All Bowling Green has to do is stick to playing fundamental football and that should be enough for the win. Even if the Aggies play the game of their lives on offense, a pedestrian showing from Bowling Green’s defense should be enough for the win. 

Players To Watch:

New Mexico State:

DL Lazarus Williams — Bowling Green allows three sacks a game. The Falcons also allow a lot of pressure and hurries. Lazarus Williams is the best pass rusher that New Mexico State has, as he has generated a team-high 7.5 sacks this season. Throw the passing game off rhythm and the Aggies will win. 

QB Diego Pavia — The dual-threat QB has to keep the Falcons’ defense honest. While his passing left a lot to be desired, he caught fire late in the season with 537 yards and seven touchdown passes in his last two games. Pavia will need to keep the Falcons horrid pass defense (ranked 103rd in the nation in YPG) honest in order for the running game to work as desired.  

Bowling Green:

WR Odieu Hiliare — Odieu Hiliare is the star receiver of the Falcons. Leading the team in receptions, yards, and tied for the lead in touchdowns, he is a certified star. While New Mexico State has a shutdown unit in the air, Hiliare has the ability to make any quarterback’s life easier. He should be able to accomplish that in this game.

LB Demetrius Hardamon — New Mexico State has one of the best pass protection units in the country, allowing only 1.25 sacks per game (good for 25th in the nation). Karl Brooks, the First Team All-MAC pass rusher, will get most of the attention from the Aggies. That in turn will allow Demetrius Hardamon, who is no slouch on his own having had six sacks on the year, to have an easier time getting to Diego Pavia. Even if the Aggies focus on the running game, Hardamon is adept at playing the run, as he also is second on the team in tackles for loss. 

Score Prediction:

In the end, New Mexico State’s offense will not put enough points up to combat the Bowling Green passing attack. It’ll be close early, but Bowling Green will pull away in the late third quarter. For that reason, I will go with the Falcons. Bowling Green 38, New Mexico State 21.