It is here. We finally made it. After waiting an extra year for this matchup after last year’s cancellation, we finally get to witness the Badgers from Wisconsin take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame at Chicago’s Soldier Field. For many people, this was one of the games they had circled on their calendars before the season even started and for many of the correct reasons. Two midwestern teams separated by only a four-hour drive who go into every season with expectations to make a New Year’s Six Bowl where anything less is deemed a failure. It is truthfully a wonder how we haven’t seen a matchup between these two in recent years. And let’s acknowledge the focal point of the love triangle: Jack Coan.

The former Badgers quarterback, now the signal caller for the Irish, has been among the biggest storylines of the week, but while he will be among the biggest components of this game, he is far from being the only one. We’ll be looking at other factors of this game, factors that will make all the difference on who emerges victorious.

Graham Mertz

For those that listened to our Week 4 Preview episode of the Transfer Portal Podcast, you would know that I said Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz was the player to watch for the weekend. After one of the most forgettable performances ever by a Wisconsin quarterback vs Penn State (trust me, there have been many), there were numerous members of the Badger faithful who were ready to give up on Graham for being the Messiah of Wisconsin football, and it wasn’t like they didn’t have their reasons. 1-4 in the redzone vs. the Nittany Lions that also included two fumbles and the fact that they couldn’t score from the one-yard line on first and goal. But maybe there’s hope for the weekend.

After going 14 of 17 with no picks against Eastern Michigan (yes, I know it’s Eastern Michigan), it’s obvious that Paul Chryst is not giving up on the former four-star recruit. But now it’s a different story vs. Notre Dame. Graham will be having to look out for potential All-American and top 10 NFL draft prospect Kyle Hamilton at safety. Mertz must protect the football and be a key reason for the Badgers to win the turnover battle. A game that will be won with what I believe will be time of possession, it will be important for Graham to not sling it downfield where there’s trouble and keep it short with running back Chez Mellusi along with senior wide outs Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor. Trust your teammates, play a patient game, and don’t force anything that is not there. Also, don’t fumble when handing it off to your running backs in the red zone. That’s pretty important also.

Kyren Williams vs Wisconsin’s Run Defense

Jack Coan is no stranger to having a top-level running back to hand the ball off to, as he used to have Jonathan Taylor behind him, but now he has another one in Kyren Williams. With 1,400+ scrimmage yards and 14 TDs in 2020, Kyren has yet to have his breakout game of the season, but it’s obvious that his stock is rising.

While a non-factor vs. Florida State, he improved massively over the last two games, with 100+ scrimmage yards against both Toledo and Purdue along with three TDs combined in those games. But let’s be honest, they are nowhere near the beast that he will face in this Badgers front. Allowing 2.8 yards per rush vs. Penn State and 0.9 vs. Eastern Michigan, the Badgers also currently lead all FBS teams in rushing yards allowed per game at 33. That is only 33 rushing yards allowed per game. That is mental to comprehend. That being said, Kyren will also be the most talented running back Wisconsin will see all season, and it will be critical to see if he gets success early in this game. If he can pick up a few first downs early on, Notre Dame will play a slow game, eat up clock, and go into halftime with a probable lead. If the Irish do not find success on the ground early on and find themselves in multiple three-and-out situations, Jack Coan might have to bite off more than what he can chew.

The Return of Leo Chenal

COVID sucks. It’s that simple. The Badgers defense learned that the hard way against Penn State when it was announced that linebacker Leo Chenal was going to be out for a minimum of two games after he tested positive for the virus. The second-leading tackler from last season for the Badgers as well as their sack leader, it was obvious that his presence was missed, which is a scary thought. For a player who could be their best player on any given Saturday and they still dominate without him should leave the Notre Dame offensive line shaking, especially a Notre Dame line that have already allowed 14 sacks to start the season. Chenal will be back with his partner in crime, Jack Sanborn, and will be a major piece for the Badgers front seven. We will see how Coan reacts to the pressure of the defense he used to face in practice.  

Prediction

The two most important aspects for this game for me are time of possession and turnovers. I am not expecting a high-scoring affair whatsoever, and whoever is the last team to make a critical mistake will be guaranteed the loser of this game. Wisconsin is the wounded animal right now, already with a conference loss and Iowa looking like the best team in the Big Ten, the Badgers will be desperate to make a statement going into this game. Notre Dame has looked shaky at best against Florida State and Toledo, plus the Purdue game was closer than what the scoreboard suggests. Wisconsin is currently a 6/6.5 point favorite, and I do not agree with Vegas at all on that line. It feels ridiculous that this is not a two-point spread at most. I will give the edge to Wisconsin in this game, coming off playing Eastern Michigan and a bye week. The Badgers are the more well-rested team, healthier, and haven’t had to deal with the baptism of fire that Notre Dame has had over the last few weeks. I believe that Mertz will be smarter with the football, Mellusi, Jalen Berger, and Isaac Guerendo will keep the ball moving behind Wisconsin’s big offensive line, and too much will be asked of Coan.

Score prediction: Wisconsin 20, Notre Dame 17.