Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud had big shoes to fill, taking over for 2021 first round pick Justin Fields, but it’s safe to say he proved himself to be more than capable in his two years at OSU. Stroud was a Heisman Trophy finalist in both of his years as a starter and closed out his career with a masterful playoff performance against a seemingly unstoppable Georgia team. With all this in mind, can Stroud carry this success to the next level? Despite a loaded résumé, Stroud has his fair share of ups and downs as a prospect.
Continuing my breakdowns of 2023 NFL Draft quarterbacks, I took a look at C.J. Stroud and how his game may translate to the NFL.
Feel free to check out my breakdown on Alabama’s Bryce Young as well.
Strengths:
If you could put together a prototype of what many envision an NFL quarterback being, it would probably end up looking a lot like C.J. Stroud. 6-foot-3, 218 pounds, intelligent, productive and throws a perfect spiral. Stroud passes the “on paper” scouting report with flying colors.
From the waist up, Stroud is very well-refined and ahead of most QBs we’ve seen come out recently. His release is consistent, and he generates a healthy amount of torque on his passes from his core rotation. Stroud is a well put together thrower, and the ball typically comes out effortlessly for him.
Stroud’s footwork and pocket presence also improved noticeably through his time at OSU. He makes subtle movements to create space for himself, and his eyes are almost always in sync with his feet while looking downfield.
The biggest thing you’re getting with Stroud is accuracy at every level of the field. He can fit the ball into any window and more often than not hits his targets in stride. Ohio State has had a lot of great receivers over the years, but their YAC numbers certainly benefited from Stroud’s ball placement on several occasions. Per Pro Football Focus, Stroud led the NCAA in adjusted completion percentage in 2021.
There’s been some strong contenders, but it might not be a stretch to say Stroud is one of the most accurate college QBs in recent memory.
Negative:
When watching him play, it’s apparent that Stroud isn’t a “creator.” He can follow a script well within structure, but you just don’t see him make, or extend, plays as often as expected from a top QB prospect.
Stroud proved to be a surprisingly mediocre athlete throughout his collegiate career. He definitely has the legs to pick up 10-15 yards if needed, but between a lack of overall explosiveness and reluctance to run the ball in general, there really isn’t much to get excited by. Is he a statue? Maybe not, but Stroud profiles much closer to that label than a legit dual-threat.
Problems also start to arise when Stroud’s pocket begins to collapse on him. He tends to be oblivious to pressure and wait for plays to develop for a bit too long, leading to late throws. Stroud will generally need to speed up his internal clock before he can become an NFL starter.
Stroud’s arm is just a tad bit underwhelming to me. He struggles to control velocity on his throws, often failing to adjust for specific windows and passes. I’m not going to sit here and tell you I don’t think Stroud has an NFL arm, but there’s room to be concerned about his ability to drive the ball, especially over the middle of the field.
Finally, Stroud’s stock will inevitably suffer from the idea that his success at Ohio State was in part caused by the talent around him. His WR1 and WR2 in 2021 (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) have both already seen success in the NFL, while his WR3 (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) is likely to be a first round pick this year. Not to mention his top target this past season, Marvin Harrison Jr., looks like he could be one of the best receiver prospects of the past century. OSU put high-end talent around Stroud, and while he delivered consistently, his supporting cast will be drastically worse wherever he’s drafted.
Verdict:
If this were 10 years ago, C.J. Stroud would be a no-brainer first overall pick. He’s a fully capable passer, who can serve as a true “game manager” and consistently get the ball where needed. Unfortunately, Stroud falls short in the fact that he is not a playmaker, and that seems to be the genre of QB that most teams have coveted in recent years.
You’re setting yourself up for disappointment by drafting Stroud to be some sort of game-changing and high upside prospect, but he’ll still more than likely be a quality NFL quarterback. Stroud’s high floor and refined passing abilities make his rookie contract a coveted asset and should allow him to start games from day one on many teams.
Ideal NFL Comparison:
Sam Bradford with good knees. It’s easy to forget Bradford once being a Heisman-winning first overall pick, so don’t take this the wrong way. Both can make any throw in the book and are among the most accurate prospects we’ve ever seen, but also leave a lot of meat on the bone when asked to be “great.”
Projection:
Stroud will go in the first round. His potential to start day one and not need much fine-tuning is certainly appealing. Carolina could be an interesting spot for him under newly-hired head coach Frank Reich.
About the author
Proud California Golden Bears fan and aspiring football mind. I specialize in Pac-12 and NFL Draft coverage. My past experiences in journalism include covering the San Francisco 49ers, as well as creating film breakdowns on my own blog. I love the X’s and O’s just as much as anyone else, but also see value in numbers. My favorite CFB game ever was the 2007 Fiesta Bowl between Oklahoma and Boise State.
