1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young QB — Alabama

It’s been a while since we last saw this little clarity atop the draft board. The Panthers, who sent a king’s ransom to Chicago to get here, will obviously pick a QB here, but the question is which one? Any of the top four guys could realistically be in play here, as well as a possible one pick trade down with Houston. Nonetheless, it seems as though Alabama’s Bryce Young is the pick here.

Young undeniably has the best film in this class and appears to have the highest ceiling of the group. A player of his undersized physical profile going first overall is virtually unheard of, but it also speaks to just how refined of a passer he is in spite of it. Personally, I think the first pick should be reserved for freak athletes (see: Anthony Richardson) but the appeal with Young is pretty clear.

2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud QB — Ohio State

These first two picks could easily be interchangeable, but it’s hard to imagine Houston not going quarterback at two. Politics could play a role here, with Stroud sharing the same agent as a notable former Houston QB, but Stroud still seems like a no-brainer. He’d start from day one on a young Houston team and grow alongside first-time offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. 

I also wouldn’t count out Tyree Wilson here, seeing as Houston also has the option of moving up from its second first-round pick to get a QB.

3. Tennessee Titans (via Arizona): Anthony Richardson QB — Florida

If the Titans want a quarterback in this draft (which it certainly seems like they do), there’s nothing stopping them from making a blockbuster move to get one.

Anthony Richardson‘s upside is as high as any player we’ve ever seen, and he’d be in a good spot to succeed if the Titans retain Ryan Tannehill for another year. Even if he isn’t a finished product, you take the chance on an alien like Richardson and hope to figure things out later. 

A Tennessee trade-up seems far too obvious and would be a massive splash for first-year GM Ran Carthon. 

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis QB — Kentucky

Barring a one pick trade-up with Arizona, it looks like Indianapolis will end up with whichever one of the consensus top four quarterbacks don’t end up going top three. That player appears to be Kentucky’s Will Levis, which shouldn’t really come as a surprise to most people. Levis is a raw athlete who checks all the boxes physically but performed sparingly throughout his five-year college career. This is the type of pick that, while head-scratching at the time, could just as easily prove everybody wrong. 

5. Seattle Seahawks: Will Anderson Jr. EDGE — Alabama

Thanks to the infamous Russell Wilson trade, and emergence of Geno Smith, Seattle gets the luxury of taking whoever it sees as the best player available in this draft. Jalen Carter could understandably be the pick, but with his off-field concerns, Will Anderson Jr. seems like the safer choice. Anderson fills a need for Seattle and also happens to be a phenomenal football player. He’s gone under the radar throughout this process, but you’d be hard-pressed to find three players better in the whole class.

6. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon CB — Illinois

Detroit has done a lot of work this offseason to strengthen its secondary, and drafting a corner feels like the finishing touch. Witherspoon is a strong scheme fit, with the ability to play physical coverage and also come downhill and stop the run. This is probably the most widely mocked pick in the entire draft, and for good reason. It almost seems too obvious at times. 

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez CB — Oregon

The Raiders’ defense is usually pretty awful, and a large part of that is their secondary. The quick fix to this dilemma is to simply draft the best corner on the board, which they’ll have a good chance at doing this year. Gonzalez is about as flawless of a prospect as I can think of in this class. He’s 20 years old, a great athlete, and was good on film. There isn’t much to dislike if you’re the Raiders.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson EDGE — Texas Tech

The Falcons’ pass rush has been by far the worst in the league over the past three seasons, making it hard to believe they wouldn’t jump at the chance to take Tyree Wilson if available. Wilson is a freak athlete with immense upside, but he lacks the pass-rushing “bag” you’d expect a top six pick to have. Think similar to 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker. Those who liked Walker will like Wilson, and those who didn’t won’t like him.

9. Chicago Bears: Jalen Carter IDL — Georgia

Jalen Carter was once seen as a potential No. 1 overall pick in this class, and it’s hard not to see why. Carter was unbelievable at Georgia and as good as any DL prospect we’ve seen in recent memory. The issue here is obviously Carter’s highly-publicized arrest for reckless driving and racing. Prior to the arrest, Carter’s absolute worst-case scenario would’ve been fifth to Seattle, but an abysmal pro day showing will also kick him down the board. Nonetheless, we haven’t seen any outright evidence that Carter’s on-field performance will be affected yet.

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith EDGE — Georgia

The Eagles get to have the most fun of any team on draft night, as they’ll be picking 10th overall despite making the Super Bowl. Nolan Smith is obviously a luxury pick, with Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat already on the team, but adding him to the rotation is a can’t-miss opportunity. Smith is a freak athlete (as seen in his dominant combine performance), with absurd movement skills off the edge. This pick would be worthy of a “the rich get richer” post from Adam Schefter if it ends up happening.

11. Arizona Cardinals (via Tennessee): Paris Johnson Jr. OT — Ohio State

Arizona needs OL help desperately, and Kyler Murray is reportedly a big fan of Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. Seems like a match made in heaven. Johnson will almost certainly be the first OT off the board and could go as high as third to Arizona. He’s a good player who fills a big need. There isn’t much more you can ask for. 

12. Houston Texans: Lukas Van Ness EDGE — Iowa

Both Van Ness and the Texans’ No. 12 pick could see a variety of different outcomes on draft night, with Houston reportedly shopping the pick and Van Ness being mocked all over the board. Either way, the Texans will more than likely be taking an EDGE with one of their first two picks, and if Van Ness is on the board they’d certainly have to consider. This isn’t DeMeco Ryans’ new Nick Bosa, but there’s a lot to like with Van Ness’ upside. 

13. Green Bay Packers: Darnell Wright OT — Tennessee 

The Packers moved up two picks thanks to the Aaron Rodgers trade. Maybe that means something, or maybe it doesn’t, but they’ll almost certainly be looking on the offensive side of the ball here. Wright is a strong pass protector with a high ceiling. This is the right pick to make in regards to building around first-year starter Jordan Love.

14. New England Patriots: Quentin Johnston WR — TCU

It’s rare to see New England make an offensive splash this early in the draft, but I can’t see how anybody could watch the Patriots’ offense last season and not draft a skill player. For better or for worse, Quentin Johnston fits the mold of recent Patriots WRs as a physical outside threat. Keep an eye on New England as a possible Bijan Robinson spot as well.

15. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski OL — Northwestern

The Jets could benefit from drafting an OT or IOL to protect Aaron Rodgers, and Peter Skoronski can fill either need. I think Skoronski falls due to concerns with his length as a tackle, but that’s not to say he can’t be a good football player. Worst-case scenario, you slide him inside and have a Week 1 starter.

16. Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks CB — Maryland

The Commanders could go QB here, but they seem somewhat content with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett for the time being. Besides QB, corner is an obvious need, and they’ll have a few good options. I think they’ll go with a Big Ten product, but not the one many have mocked them in Joey Porter Jr. Instead, Deonte Banks is the pick here. Banks is a good scheme fit who’s quickly risen up boards in this draft.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones OT — Georgia

The Steelers’ top priority this offseason is to build around 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett at QB. This pick could be a WR, but OL seems too good to pass up. Jones is a long-term project with good upside and physical traits. He could end up being the best tackle in this class.

18. Detroit Lions: Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR — Ohio State

Detroit just lost 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams for the first six games of next season. That’s not to say Williams is done with the team, but it certainly boosts the odds of the Lions taking a WR with their second first-round pick. Smith-Njigba has been a polarizing topic throughout this process, but he’d be a perfect fit with Detroit.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Branch DB — Alabama

Tampa Bay is in a rough spot, and picking this late in the draft certainly doesn’t help. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker could be in the mix here, but Tampa would be better off just going with the best player available at that point, which very well may be Brian Branch. Branch is a top 10 talent in this draft who will likely fall due to positional value concerns. Nonetheless, Branch has the potential to start at both nickel and safety at the next level.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Joey Porter Jr. CB — Penn State

Seattle’s defense should continue to be a priority in this draft if a quality DB is on the board with its second first-round pick. Joey Porter Jr. is in fact a quality corner, with the length and athleticism Pete Carroll’s corners tend to possess.  

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Bijan Robinson RB — Texas

Austin Ekeler’s future with the Chargers is up in the air, and the team could benefit from any form of offensive help either way. Taking Bijan Robinson won’t please the positional value truthers, but it would certainly provide a replacement for Ekeler. Robinson is undeniably one of the best players in this class. The only question is just how high teams are willing to take a RB in 2023.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers WR — Boston College

The Ravens are hyper focused on pleasing Lamar Jackson, and bringing in one of the hottest names in this draft cycle would certainly help. Flowers consistently did incredible things at Boston College when the ball was in his hands. He’ll provide Baltimore with a quality underneath target with high-end YAC ability.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison WR — USC

Jordan Addison was one of the biggest fallers of this draft process, in large part due to his poor combine results. Despite his limitations in terms of speed and size, Addison still profiles nicely as a slot at the next level. With the Vikings parting ways with long-time slot receiver Adam Thielen, taking Addison here and pairing him with Justin Jefferson seems like a no-brainer. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: O’Cyrus Torrence IOL — Florida

Jacksonville turned heads down the stretch of last season, but the Jaguars will need to do a better job of protecting emerging quarterback Trevor Lawrence if they want to take the next step. Torrence is a powerful blocker who is especially dominant against the run. This is the safe pick for Jacksonville if there isn’t a top DB available.

25. New York Giants: Josh Downs WR — North Carolina

The Giants just paid Daniel Jones a lot of money, and now they’ll need to shift their focus to the guys he’s throwing to. Last year they fielded one of, if not the worst, receiver group in the league, lacking any explosiveness or downfield threats. Josh Downs looks like the perfect answer to that problem. Downs is a shifty receiver who is a threat to make big plays with or without the ball in his hands. Downs would be following in the footsteps of his father Gary, who was drafted by the team in 1994. 

26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer TE — Notre Dame

Dallas is quite possibly the hardest team to predict in this draft. The Cowboys could go with a DB, OL, WR, or even a RB if Bijan Robinson were to slip. Michael Mayer is the best option here in terms of both filling a need and adding one of the best overall players on the board. Mayer is among the best tight end prospects in recent years and would give Dallas yet another solid weapon. 

27. Buffalo Bills: Jack Campbell LB — Iowa

This one might come as a shock, but it’s pretty safe to say the league is most likely higher on Iowa’s Jack Campbell than many fans are. Campbell is a superb athlete who moves far better than any 6-foot-5, 250-pound human being should. He’d replace Tremaine Edmunds, who left to sign with Chicago this offseason. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Calijah Kancey DL — Pittsburgh

I’m not the biggest Calijah Kancey fan, but if he’s on the board at 28, the Bengals would be hard-pressed not to draft him. Kancey doesn’t have much to offer against the run, but the Bengals won’t have to worry about that seeing as they already have D.J. Reader on the team. What he can offer is incredible interior pass rushing and a potential mismatch nightmare. Drafting Kancey is a luxury that not many teams have, but the Bengals may be one of the few that can make it work.

29. New Orleans Saints: Bryan Bresee DL — Clemson

After missing most of the 2021 season with a torn ACL, Bryan Bresee’s draft stock took a huge hit. The once top 10 projected pick is now not even a lock to be drafted in the first round. This could play to the advantage of a team like the Saints however, as they’ll have the chance to land a potential blue-chip talent far later than usual. Bresee is a game wrecker when healthy, and at worst a good run defender.  

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Cam Smith CB — South Carolina

The Eagles get to have some more fun and take whomever they want at the back end of the first. Corner is a spot where they could benefit from adding some more depth, while creating a line of succession for an aging Darius Slay. Cam Smith would be smart here, as he could also provide some versatility at safety if needed. Georgia’s Kelee Ringo could also be in the discussion.    

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison OT — Oklahoma

The Chiefs can close out the first round by drafting one of the most underrated players in this class in Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. The 6-foot-4, 312-pound tackle is a freak athlete, boasting a 4.98 40-yard dash and 2.87 20-yard split. Harrison seems like a no-brainer for the Chiefs and a potential Week 1 starter at RT.