It’s officially the offseason, which means the gambling clock has been reset… for now. While the days of praying to the gambling gods for a backdoor cover may be over, it’s never too early to put some news clippings in the tickler file for next season. Insert the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Now it might seem odd that I’m starting my first gambling post with the Iowa Hawkeyes, but value is value, and we’ll take it anywhere we can find it. Last week, head coach Kirk Ferentz announced he would not be making any changes to his staff, and on Monday, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz solidified this statement by signing his amended contract with the university. Our very own Dan Keegan had a fantastic write-up of this last week, which I urge you to check out, but we’re here to talk about how it impacts gambling, and specifically, what value we can find surrounding the Iowa Hawkeyes.

There are two major parts of Brian Ferentz’s new contract to highlight:

1. Brian Ferentz’s salary is reduced for the 2023 season. However, if the team averages 25 points per game (and achieves seven wins – including a possible bowl game), he will automatically be extended for the 2024 season with his previous salary restored along with bonuses.
2. “If Coach does not meet the Designated Performance Objectives, the agreement will terminate on June 30, 2024.”

Yes. You read that right. Brian Ferentz’s contract is a ticking time bomb, and the fuse is directly tied to Iowa’s ability to put up points this season.  

Iowa as a team averaged 17.7 PPG last season, which ranked 123rd out of 131 FBS teams. The Hawkeyes scored above 25 points in just three of their 13 contests last year, while still somehow managing to pull off an 8-5 record, including a 21-0 win in the Music City Bowl against Kentucky. One of those three came with the help of two defensive touchdowns against Rutgers. The average over/under game total for Iowa games last season was 38 points, and Iowa games hit the under in nine of 13 games.

What do we do with this information? Well, the logical progression of questions is: Do I believe Iowa is a bowl team? Maybe. Will Iowa be a juggernaut offense, even with the offseason transfer portal addition of former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara? Probably not. But one thing we absolutely can bank on is that Brian Ferentz, and his father, will be coaching for Brian’s future job, so you better believe Iowa will try to pile on points every opportunity it can – which translates to running up scores against weaker opponents and garbage-time points.

Let’s take a peek at Iowa’s schedule for an example.

Iowa opens the season at home against Utah State, a team coming off a 6-6 regular season in the Mountain West concluding with a SERVPRO First Responder Bowl loss against Memphis. With all due respect to Blake Anderson’s program, Iowa will be favored in this game, however the Hawkeyes will need to put up a more impressive showing than last year’s opener against South Dakota State, where they squeaked out a 7-3 victory to open their 2022 campaign. Games like this are exactly the times for Brian Ferentz to run up the score and build himself a buffer, as the schedule is a bit less forgiving moving forward. Don’t expect the Hawkeyes to let off the gas (and yes, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence either), even if they are up multiple scores later in the second half.

On the flip side – garbage time.

During the Hawkeyes’ 54-10 blowout home loss against Ohio State last season, they attempted just one pass in their final two possessions of the game, and three total the entire fourth quarter. While this game was never particularly close or in reach for Iowa, there’s no better time for Brian Ferentz to pad his offensive stats than in garbage time, where he can pick up cheap scores against defenses looking to rest players or get the offense back on the field to ice the game. If Penn State’s offensive firepower is anything it’s hyped up to be, keep an eye on that game for garbage-time points to potentially back into an over.

In understanding both of these scenarios, the most interesting aspect of this contract by FAR, is that the 25 PPG average is cumulative – meaning the further into the season we get, bettors will know exactly how close (or far away) Brian Ferentz is from his required incentive, and more importantly, how desperate Iowa is for points. There will be more value to see here as the season approaches, and certainly on a week-to-week basis as his incentives are tracked in real time under the public eye.