And just like that, the 2023 college football regular season has flown by right before our eyes.

The Group of Five treated us to a spectacular show this fall. 

First and foremost, James Madison was yet again a dominant force at the FBS level, nearly ending with a perfect record were it not for an incredibly close loss at the hands of Appalachian State. Not allowed to play in postseason action due to an NCAA ruling, the country was outraged.

JMU ended its season with an exclamation point in a dominant 56-14 win over Coastal Carolina. Appalachian State is back in the Sun Belt title game thanks to that result and a commanding 55-27 victory over rival Georgia Southern.

And, by the lucky roll of the dice, not enough teams are bowl eligible with six wins this season, meaning that some unlucky opponent will have to take on the Dukes. I pity the poor soul.

How about the New Mexico State Aggies? They finished with 10 wins after hitting a game-winning field goal to take down Jacksonville State, proving that they belonged in the Conference USA title game regardless of what NCAA rules prevent JSU from being there. The Gamecocks did benefit from the same lack of bowl teams that JMU did, meaning that Rich Rodriguez and Co. will be able to play in a bowl game in their first season at the FBS level.

I also have to shout out Tulane for yet again running rampant through the American and Boise State and UNLV for each rallying late in the Mountain West to make the championship game after Air Force and Fresno State seemed like shoo-ins at a certain point. However, one does have to be slightly disappointed in the fact that San José State just dismantled the Rebels and was narrowly edged out of the title game due to computer rankings.

ASHTON JEANTY TD

A 75-yard @BroncoSportsFB touchdown 🔥 pic.twitter.com/i1TJtt92WK

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 24, 2023

In checking the bowl eligibility status for some teams, Utah State clutched up against New Mexico in double overtime to clinch a bowl appearance, UCF won the battle for space over Houston to get to six wins, and Northern Illinois capped off a wacky season with a needed victory over Kent State. Rice reached a bowl game in the battle of the owls against Florida Atlantic, Old Dominion pulled off a miraculous comeback over Georgia State to earn a postseason berth, and Louisiana followed suit with a much easier 52-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall also clinched bowl eligibility with a 35-21 win over Arkansas State, and Byrum Brown and the South Florida Bulls capped off a great regular season with a win over Charlotte to also qualify for…you guessed it. A bowl game.

The Sun Belt flexed its depth throughout the ’23 campaign; the Mountain West was a wild roller coaster ride at the top; New Mexico State, Liberty, and Jacksonville State stunned the C-USA by dominating the league in their first seasons of participation; and MACtion continued to deliver every week. In the end, the American did reign supreme as the strongest overall league, with SMU, Tulane, Memphis and UTSA all being strong contenders with New Year’s Six potential.

The race for the New Year’s Six auto-bid has never been tighter, and each matchup this weekend will have some form of impact on who represents the Group of Five against one of the Power Five’s best this year. From New Orleans to Lynchburg, every game means everything.

The cream has risen to the top, and each Group of Five conference will have two representatives take center stage with everything on the line this weekend. 

Cheers to that.

American Athletic Conference Championship:

SMU (10-2, 8-0) vs. Tulane (11-1, 8-0)

4:00 PM ET | ABC | New Orleans, LA

MyBookie Odds: Tulane -3

SMU’s Last AAC Championship: N/A

Tulane’s Last AAC Championship: 2022

NY6 Impact: High

Stars To Watch: Makhi Hughes (RB, Tulane), RJ Maryland (WR, SMU)

The race for the New Year’s Six bowl berth starts and stops with Tulane. If the Green Wave can manage to repeat as American champions, then they will be in the NY6 thanks to their Group of Five-leading No. 22 ranking in the College Football Playoff poll. From there, Michael Pratt and Co. would aim to win their second straight major bowl game.

The likelihood of that occurring increased dramatically last week. The Green Wave treaded water through much of the American conference season, looking underwhelming in close victories. But, Willie Fritz’ team saved the best for last, as it forced a red-hot UTSA offense into five turnovers and running back Makhi Hughes ran wild for 166 yards and a touchdown. Hughes has been an underrated star for this team throughout the season, but the Tulane defense has perhaps been talked about even less despite its success. Since the 37-20 loss to Ole Miss in Week 2, the Green Wave have yet to allow a team score more than 28 points.

Thus, we are treated to a matchup of a stout defense and a prolific incoming offense.

Rhett Lashlee has effectively built off of his inaugural 7-6 campaign with SMU, guiding the Mustangs to 10 wins behind the same explosive offense and a wildly improved defense. This defense allows only 17.7 points per game compared to allowing 33.9 in ‘22, making this one of the most improved units in the entire nation. On the other side of the ball, Preston Stone was slinging the rock at a high level after biding his time behind current Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai, and everything started and stopped with the skilled signal-caller. 

Stone has thrown for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions, but he went down with a gruesome leg injury against Navy last week and his status for this one is doubtful at best. The backfield duo of LJ Johnson Jr. and Jaylan Knighton is formidable and will have to pick up some slack, as will a strong Mustangs offensive line. Three quarterbacks (freshmen Kevin Jennings and Keldric Luster and senior Alex Padilla) saw the field against the Midshipmen, although none of them necessarily stood out. Luckily for them, the duo of receiver Moochie Dixon and tight end RJ Maryland is as good as it gets in the GO5, and they can be game-changers if they get the ball in space.

The Ponies’ two losses came at the hands of Oklahoma and TCU, and I’d venture that if they played those two teams today (with a healthy Stone), they’d pull out one victory and perhaps even two.

Tulane is in a win-and-you’re-in scenario. SMU would likely need some help to make the NY6 if it comes out on top, but the Mustangs first have their sights set on claiming their first AAC title. This is one of toughest games to predict of the entire championship weekend in my eyes, but I really like what I’ve seen from the Tulane defense in recent weeks and I think that unit will do enough to slow down the Mustangs offense, similar to how it cooled off Frank Harris.

Score Prediction: Tulane 31, SMU 23

Conference USA Championship:

New Mexico State (10-3, 7-1) vs. Liberty (12-0, 8-0)

Friday, 7:00 PM ET | CBS Sports Network | Lynchburg, VA

MyBookie Odds: Liberty -11

NMSU’s Last C-USA Championship: N/A

Liberty’s Last C-USA Championship: N/A

NY6 Impact: Moderate

Stars To Watch: Diego Pavia (QB, NMSU), Kaidon Salter (QB, Liberty)

This one has been set in stone for a couple of weeks now, as Jacksonville State (which finished 8-4 and 6-2 in C-USA play) was ineligible to play in the title game…and New Mexico State beat the Gamecocks 20-17 on a walk-off field goal last weekend anyway.

The Flames have appeared to be on a collision course with this game ever since the season began. The Jamey Chadwell experiment has worked wonders, as his offensive system has matched perfectly with Kaidon Salter’s skill set. The former Tennessee quarterback has thrown for 2,431 yards and 29 touchdowns, tacking on 899 rushing yards. His dual-threat ability and top-tier arm talent makes him must-watch TV, and Quinton Cooley — his running mate in the backfield — is a 1,000-yard rusher and a perfect complement to Salter. Liberty ranks first in the nation in rushing offense with 295.4 yards per game coming on the ground, and the Flames defense is vastly improved this year, only allowing 21.2 points per game. Last week against UTEP, Chadwell decided that his team didn’t need to throw the ball, so he ran it on 62 out of 75 plays for 441 yards. Yep, they’re that good.

Ironically enough, the only two games where Chadwell’s group looked really tested were a 21-16 win over Sam Houston and a 42-35 win over Middle Tennessee, two teams that finished with a combined record of 7-17.

New Mexico State made a leap in moving from the ranks of independents into the C-USA, its first conference since it was a member of the WAC. An opening loss to UMass appeared to hint at rough times approaching, but that was not the case.

Instead, the move paid dividends, as renowned rebuilder Jerry Kill has continued to improve this Aggies program in the right ways. NMSU will appear in back-to-back postseason games for the first time in over 60 years when it goes bowling in December, but for now, this group has its eyes set on winning the school’s first conference title since ‘78. 

Veteran quarterback Diego Pavia leads the Aggies in both passing (2,727 yards) and rushing (806 yards), but three different NMSU rushers have gone for over 500 yards this season, allowing the team to field the nation’s 12th-best ground attack. The Aggies defense was also solid in conference play. The win over JSU last week came in dramatic fashion, which NMSU is plenty accustomed to.

Liberty has everything to lose in this one, as the Flames could qualify for the New Year’s Six if Tulane falls to SMU. New Mexico State is playing with house money, and I expect Kill and Co. to pull out plenty of tricks in looking to pull off this upset. 

In the Flames’ 33-17 win over NMSU on Sept. 9, Liberty was able to control the time of possession and ran for 250 yards. If the Aggies can hold the Flames under the 200 mark in this game then they will have a great shot at avenging that early season defeat.

In the end, Liberty plays a similar style of football to the Aggies…just with superior talent and athletes. NMSU will play well, and this will be a closer game than it was the first time around, but I trust Liberty to finish off the dream season.

Score Prediction: Liberty 34, New Mexico State 24

MAC Championship:

Miami OH (10-2, 7-1) vs. Toledo (11-1, 8-0)

12:00 PM ET | ESPN | Detroit, MI

MyBookie Odds: Toledo -8

Toledo’s Last MAC Championship: 2022

Miami (OH)’s Last MAC Championship: 2019

NY6 Impact: Low

Stars To Watch: Rashad Amos (RB, Miami (OH)), Dequan Finn (QB, Toledo)

First and foremost, how rare is it to have two MAC schools with such pristine records in the conference title game? We’re so used to seeing an 8-4 Ohio vs. a 7-5 Northern Illinois in this game that I had to rub my eyes when I saw that these two sides had combined for a whopping 21 wins in 2023. It speaks to each of their dominance in the league, and it sets up a great matchup in Detroit.

This is also a rematch, with Toledo walking into Yager Stadium and beating Miami (OH) 21-17 on Oct. 21. The Rockets held a 21-3 lead at halftime and pitched a fourth quarter shutout to withstand a rally from the RedHawks, and the victory proved to be the main difference between these two teams in 2023.

The Rockets entered the season as one of the favorites to win the MAC, and they have lived up to that hype and then some. Junior quarterback Dequan Finn has been a major reason why, as the 6-foot-2 signal-caller out of Detroit has been effective with both his arm and legs this season. He will surely be ecstatic to play in front of his hometown in this one. 

Finn has largely overshadowed running back Peny Boone, who leads the team with 1,359 rushing yards. Toledo is yet another squad on this list that prides itself on a punishing ground attack and a stout defense that only allows 20.4 PPG. Yes ladies and gentlemen, the cliché is very true: running the ball and playing good defense does win you championships.

After a heartbreaking opening week defeat to Illinois, Toledo has failed to suffer a loss since and largely dominated the Mid-American Conference. With a win, the Rockets would become the first team since Northern Illinois in ‘11 and ‘12 to win back-to-back MAC titles.

Ever since their convincing 30-16 win over Ohio in late October, the RedHawks have appeared to be on a collision course with Toledo. It is even more impressive that that victory over the Bobcats came right after veteran quarterback Brett Gabbert went down with a right leg injury that ended his season. In his absence, sophomore quarterback Aveon Smith has stepped in and performed well, and the dual-threat athlete is a problem in the open field. His running mate in the backfield is Rashad Amos, who has rushed for 400 yards and six touchdowns in the past four games, which is also the amount of games Gabbert has missed. 

Offensive players have picked up the slack, and the RedHawks defense is allowing just under 10 points per game over that span as well. While the passing attack has taken a significant hit, this Miami (OH) team can take away a team’s will by dominating time of possession with its ground attack and suffocating opposing offenses on the other side of the ball. Ironically enough, the RedHawks are a much different team than they were when they first met up with the Rockets, but they have actually become more like their upcoming foe in play style.

At this point, it’s highly unlikely that Toledo could backdoor its way into the New Year’s Six. And, for the MAC, that’s perfectly fine. This game in Detroit is incredibly important for this league, and both of these teams should come out playing at a high level as two quality representatives from the East and the West.

In what may be one of the more tightly-contested games of the weekend, I’ll trust Finn and Co. to get it done with a clutch late-game scoring drive.

Score Prediction: Toledo 27, Miami (OH) 20

Mountain West Championship:

Boise State (7-5, 6-2) vs. UNLV (9-3, 6-2)

3:00 PM ET | FOX | Las Vegas, NV

MyBookie Odds: Boise -2.5

BSU’ Last MW Championship: 2019

UNLV’s Last MW Championship: N/A

NY6 Impact: Low

Stars To Watch: Ashton Jeanty (RB, BSU), Ricky White (WR, UNLV)

Well, well, well. Look who’s back in the Mountain West title game. Everybody wrote them off after they fell to 3-4 following a heartbreaking defeat to Colorado State, but they are inevitable in this league.

Even when it’s left up to computers to decide, the Boise State Broncos are playing on Championship Saturday. San José State, UNLV and Boise State all ended up with the same conference record after BSU took down Air Force and SJSU stunned the Rebels by opening up a 37-17 lead in the fourth quarter and holding on to win. However, the Spartans, who pulled off a miraculous late-season rally to get to that point, were rated lower by the computer metrics the MW utilizes, and thus were left out of this game.

Regardless, we still have a great matchup on our hands.

Boise State will play on championship weekend for the sixth time in the past seven years, and it took a major late-season rally to do it. Amid the firing of Andy Avalos, an injury to star tailback Ashton Jeanty and a musical chairs rotation at quarterback, BSU managed to pull off key wins over Wyoming, Utah State and Air Force down the stretch. The exclamation point came in a 27-19 victory over the Falcons last week, a game in which Jeanty really looked like his early-season self in accounting for 225 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos defense is stout, refusing to allow more than 20 points in its past three outings. The backfield duo of Jeanty and veteran George Holani is formidable, and Taylen Green has been reliable at quarterback in recent weeks. Add on the fact that the Broncos are tailor-made for championship football, and UNLV will have its hands full.

The Rebels were the surprise story of the Mountain West under first-year head coach Barry Odom. Despite losing quarterback Doug Brumfield early in the season, Odom’s bunch picked up notable wins over Vanderbilt, Wyoming and Air Force to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2013 and its first-ever conference title game. Freshman Jayden Maiava, a local kid, has been the key to this offense not missing a beat without Brumfield. He’s a creative playmaker that can beat teams with his arm or legs, and he has an All-American receiver in Ricky White to throw to. The former Michigan State transfer has 1,300 yards on the season, and he is a matchup nightmare for most defenses. The Rebels defense has been up-and-down throughout this campaign, and BSU will likely take a hard look at how SJSU managed to dice it up last week.

The Broncos are fighting to reclaim their throne atop the Mountain West. The Rebels are looking to cement themselves among the conference’s elite for years to come.

In the end, I believe that Boise State’s experience in games like this will pay off. The Broncos’ dominant ground attack will keep the ball away from UNLV’s up-tempo offense, and Jeanty will make plenty of highlight-reel worthy plays to keep BSU ahead.

Score Prediction: Boise State 24, UNLV 20

Sun Belt Championship:

Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2) vs. Troy (10-2, 7-1)

4:00 PM ET | ESPN | Troy, AL

MyBookie Odds: Troy -6.5

Appalachian State’s Last Sun Belt Championship: 2019

Troy’s Last Sun Belt Championship: 2022

NY6 Impact: Low

Stars To Watch: Joey Aguilar (QB, ASU), Kimani Vidal (RB, Troy)

Some familiar faces will meet up in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Familiar with playing in this crowing contest, that is. 

After all, Troy won the Sun Belt last season and is attempting to become the first repeat champ since…Appalachian State did it in 2018-19.

The Mountaineers emerged from the fog to get here. After being dethroned by the likes of CCU and JMU in this league since COVID occurred, App State owned a 3-4 record following a narrow defeat to Old Dominion in October. The ‘Eers seemed to be at a loss for how to rebound and qualify for this game.

But, a shootout win over Southern Miss calmed the concerns, and then the App State defense really shined in wins over Marshall (31-9), Georgia State (42-14) and James Madison (26-23). The Mountaineers became the only team to take down the Dukes this season, and thus can lay a true claim to the Sun Belt crown with a win. Crafty junior quarterback Joey Aguilar leads an explosive passing attack, throwing for 3,271 yards and 33 touchdowns in the regular season. As previously mentioned, the defense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, and oh yeah, this program has plenty of championship pedigree running through its blood. They won’t be fazed on the road.

The Trojans, similar to last season, rely on a stout defense that ranks among the nation’s best in most statistical categories, along with a punishing ground attack. Junior running back Kimani Vidal has already topped his 1,132 yards of last season with 1,349 this time around, and he is incredibly tough to tackle in the open field thanks to his rare mix of twitch, power and a low center of gravity. 

The difference between this year and last is that this Trojans offense is far more balanced than it was in ‘22, in large part thanks to senior Gunnar Watson having his best season as a starter. Watson has thrown for 3,147 yards and 26 touchdowns to just five interceptions after turnovers were an issue for him last year.

Troy was humbled by Kansas State 42-13 in the second week of the season, and it followed that up with a hard-fought 16-14 loss to James Madison (which could claim to be the real Sun Belt champion if Troy wins this game). The Trojans rebounded with a 27-24 win over a solid Western Kentucky team a week later, and since then, they have won every game but one (Louisiana) by double-digits. Jon Sumrall’s group is on a late-season tear yet again, and very few teams would want to play them right now.

This will be as tough and hard-fought of a game as there will be this weekend. That’s just the DNA of both of these programs. In the end, I believe that this is the Trojans’ chance to take hold of the Sun Belt, and they will take advantage of it.

Score Prediction: Troy 24, Appalachian State 20

And, for the final time this season, I will update the New Year’s Six Power Rankings. Despite Tulane’s CFP ranking, I think Liberty and JMU are better teams on a neutral field…

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Tulane
4. SMU
5. Troy
6. Toledo
7. New Mexico State
8. San José State
9. Miami (OH)
10. UNLV