The UNLV Rebels are 8-2 with a prime chance to qualify for the Mountain West title game. What a world we live in, and shoutout to Barry Odom and that team for creating something special in the first year of his tenure.

Seriously, UNLV hadn’t won eight games in a single season since the turn of the century. This is a big deal.

In other news, Western Michigan continued its late-season rally towars a bowl game by preventing Central Michigan from clinching its own postseason appearance, Frank Gore Jr. ran wild yet again as Southern Miss upset Louisiana, Tulane and Memphis survived major scares from Tulsa and Charlotte, respectively, and New Mexico State picked up a major win over Western Kentucky on the road.

Before TNF kicks off, check out this sweet run by Frank Gore Jr.
pic.twitter.com/yEQipeLxj3

— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) November 10, 2023

In the Mountain West, two major upsets significantly shook up the conference standings. San José State beat Fresno State 42-18 and Hawai’i managed to take down league-leader Air Force just a couple of hours later by a score of 27-13. With UNLV’s win over Wyoming, the Rebels are now in a great position to qualify for the MW title game, with the Bulldogs, Falcons, Boise State and now the Spartans also still heavily in the mix.

Troy has locked up a spot in the Sun Belt title game, awaiting whoever slips out from underneath James Madison in the East. Miami (OH) and Toledo are now (almost) positively on a collision course for the MAC Championship Game, and Liberty and New Mexico State will officially square off in the Conference USA Championship Game.

We are now 12 weeks into the season, and conference title races are heating up across the nation. UNLV and Air Force will battle it out with a trip to the Mountain West title game on the line while Boise State and Utah State will compete to secure a bowl berth.

But, the blockbuster of the weekend will occur in the Liberty Bowl, where Memphis and SMU’s high-powered offensive attacks will square off in a game that is sure to provide plenty of highlights.

Also, be sure to check out our weekly piece highlighting the top players at the Group of Five level in the season-long race for the Colt Brennan Award.

Boise State (5-5, 4-2) at Utah State (5-5, 3-3)

7:00 PM ET | CBS Sports Network

MyBookie Odds: BSU -5

Last Matchup: BSU 42-23 in 2022

NY6 Impact: Low

Stars To Watch: George Holani (RB, BSU), Jalen Royals (WR, USU)

What’s On The Line: Despite firing head coach Andy Avalos earlier this week and sending a clear message that .500 is not good enough in Boise, the Broncos still have a backdoor shot at qualifying for the Mountain West title game. They would need a fair bit of help to accomplish that, but it all starts with taking down the Aggies.

The firing of Avalos came as a result of two underwhelming seasons, and 2023 has been as up-and-down as it gets. Boise State became Washington’s first victim when it fell 56-19 to the Huskies to start the season, and UCF walked onto the Smurf Turf the next week and hit a game-winning field goal. The Broncos then mostly alternated between wins and losses, winning close games over San Diego State and San José State and losing close games to Memphis and Colorado State. The 32-7 win over Wyoming was promising, but falling 37-30 to Fresno State the next week was not. The team has adjusted well to the loss to star running back Ashton Jeanty, as veteran George Holani has recovered from his own offseason injury and rushed for over 70 yards in each of the past three games. Freshman quarterback Maddux Madsen has gradually taken over the majority of the responsibilities behind center due to the ever-dynamic Taylon Green’s inconsistencies in the air, causing the staff to look another way. Madsen has been solid thus far, and the defense rebounded well from a tough showing against the Bulldogs to hold New Mexico to just 14 points last week.

Utah State has gone through a similar roller coaster ride, as the Aggies began the year 1-3, won two straight, lost two straight, and are now riding a two-game winning streak. USU hasn’t necessarily beaten anybody of note, but it keeps winning thanks to a balanced offensive attack that ranks in the top 40 in both passing and rushing offense. The defense has struggled and failed to hold any opponent to under 20 points (Idaho State even scored 28), meaning that the Aggies will likely have to win a track meet to come out on top. Look out for junior receiver Jalen Royals, who leads the team with 821 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns and is a big-play threat at all times.

Both of these teams would love to wrap up bowl eligibility before the final week of the season. Boise State is going through a lot off the field right now, but I believe that the Broncos will come together on it and gut out a tough road win. 

Score Prediction: Boise State 30, Utah State 23

SMU (8-2, 6-0) at Memphis (8-2, 5-1)

12:00 PM ET | ESPN2

MyBookie Odds: SMU -7.5

Last Matchup: SMU 34-31 in 2022

NY6 Impact: Moderate

Stars To Watch: Preston Stone (QB, SMU), Seth Henigan (QB, Memphis)

What’s On The Line: At long last, the two main contenders to Tulane in the American (although UTSA could have something to say about that) will square off with a plethora of conference title implications on the line.

If you like offense, this game is for you. Both of these teams average over 39 points per game and rank in the top 25 in total offense. The quarterback duel between veterans Preston Stone and Seth Henigan will be must-watch television, and skill positions players like Memphis running back Blake Watson, wide receiver Roc Taylor and SMU running backs Jaylon Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. should all have productive days. Each offense is designed to spread the ball around to a variety of targets and create explosive play opportunities, with offensive gurus Ryan Silverfield (Memphis) and Rhett Lashlee (SMU) being among the more underrated coaching names out there right now.

The difference in this game lies on the other side of the ball. Memphis’ defense allows 28.9 points per game, while SMU’s only lets up 16.4. The Tigers’ defense has been especially torched in recent games against North Texas (42), South Florida (50) and Charlotte (38), and it’s caused them to have to be remarkably clutch on the offensive side of the ball to win. SMU, on the other hand, managed to hold a dynamic Mean Green offense to just 21 points last week.

This one could essentially be a coin flip. In the end, I’ll side with the team who has the marginally better defense and an offense that has rarely looked out of sync.

Score Prediction: SMU 49, Memphis 42

UNLV (8-2, 5-1) at Air Force (8-2, 5-1)

3:30 PM ET | CBS Sports Network

MyBookie Odds: AF -4

Last Matchup: AF 42-7 in 2022

NY6 Impact: Moderate

Stars To Watch: Jayden Maiava (QB, UNLV), John Lee Eldridge III (RB, AF)

What’s On The Line: The loser of this one likely will not qualify for the Mountain West Championship Game. The winner likely will be a lock for it. What more do you want on the line?

The Falcons tore through the MW to begin the season, starting out 5-0 in conference play with only game (Wyoming) being decided by single digits. Then, the wheels fell off in a 23-3 loss to Army that saw Air Force turn the ball over six times, and the team followed that up with an abysmal showing against Hawai’i that led to a head-scratching 27-13 loss on the road. 

Still, this Falcons team has the potential to win the conference and then some, and that is in large part thanks to the nation’s second-best rushing attack and a physical, tough defense that only allows 15.7 points per game. The quartet of running backs Owen Burk and John Lee Eldridge III, fullback Emmanuel Michel and quarterback Zac Larrier makes for a deadly backfield, but the offense has been held to under 220 rushing yards in the past two losses. Regaining rhythm on the ground will be key for Air Force to keep the ball away from the Rebels’ explosive offense.

UNLV will be taking some notes from the Black Knights and Rainbow Warriors, but the Rebels are fairly different in their makeup. In Odom’s first season at the helm, the Rebels have stunned the MW by averaging the most points per game in school history at 36.4 despite losing starting quarterback Doug Brumfield to injury early in the season. I’ve talked about how well freshman Jayden Maiava (a local product out of Las Vegas) has fared in relief frequently on the watch, and he is fresh off a 272-yard, three-touchdown performance against Wyoming last week. UNLV proved that it belongs in the upper echelon of the MW with its dominant 34-14 win over the Cowboys, and the Maiava to Ricky White (ninth in the nation with 1,028 receiving yards) connection continues to be nearly unstoppable. On top of that, don’t discount a Rebels defense that has allowed more than 30 points on just three occasions this season (and one of those teams was Michigan).

I’ve been a major believer in Air Force all season, but these two teams appear to be trending in opposing directions. I’ll take the Rebels on the road thanks to a gutsy performance from Maiava.

Score Prediction: UNLV 31, Air Force 23

And now, 12 weeks into the season, we update the Group of Five power rankings, with Liberty jumping Tulane and UNLV making a leap:

1. James Madison
2. Liberty
3. Tulane
4. Memphis
5. SMU
6. UNLV
7. Troy
8. Toledo
9. UTSA
10. Coastal Carolina