Liberty is the lone remaining unbeaten team in the Group of Five.

Appalachian State marched into Harrisonburg and took down James Madison by a score of 26-23 in overtime. Joey Aguilar threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns, the Mountaineers defense held the Dukes to just 61 rushing yards, and App State staved off a JMU rally to claim a victory on a third-and-8 touchdown in OT. 

The Dukes’ dream season has concluded, but by no means should we forget about everything that this has accomplished in 2023 (and 2022 for that matter). For App State, this is just another prime example of that program’s toughness and continued relevance within the Sun Belt, and the ‘Eers are poised to make a push for a Sun Belt title next season.

In other news, Gig ‘Em, but in the New Mexico State way. These Aggies marched into Jordan-Hare Stadium and dismantled a surging Auburn team 31-10. Diego Pavia’s three touchdown passes and a suffocating performance from the NMSU defense allowed the Aggies to pull off a stunner and put an exclamation point on maybe the program’s best season ever.

SMU won the first “Game of the Year” in the American over Memphis, claiming victory in a 38-34 shootout thanks to 286 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns from Preston Stone. The Mustangs now have an inside track at reaching the AAC title game, and their opponent will be the victor of the second “Game of the Year” in the conference, which I will touch on later in this piece.

Elsewhere, Frank Harris racked up over 500 total yards and six touchdowns in a 49-21 UTSA win over South Florida, and Toledo rallied from an 18-point deficit in the second half to beat Bowling Green thanks to this wild play:

After trailing 28-10 at halftime, Toledo storms back to win 32-31! The Rockets may be soaring to a NY6 game! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/dxC5YUMD0p

— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) November 15, 2023

Conference title races have become far clearer entering the final stanza of the season. New Mexico State and Liberty are already locked into the Conference USA title game. Toledo and Miami (OH) will be in the MAC title game following the RedHawks’ win over Buffalo. 

Troy awaits whoever emerges between Coastal Carolina and App State in the Sun Belt, with the Chanticleers just needing a victory to clinch. UTSA-Tulane will be a winner-take-all in the American, with SMU awaiting the victor as long as it takes down Navy. 

Meanwhile, the Mountain West Championship is still up in the air. The winner of the UNLV-San José State matchup will qualify, while the winner of Air Force-Boise State will hope that the Spartans do not come out on top in the former matchup. A UNLV win means that the winner of AF-BSU will be its opponent.

In looking ahead to Week 13, it’s time for Tulane to prove that it deserves to be back in the New Year’s Six. The Green Wave will host a fiery UTSA squad that is spearheaded by a quarterback that has seen it all at this level, and they will be tested in New Orleans on Friday afternoon.

In Conway, James Madison will look to rebound from the App State loss over a Coastal Carolina squad that has its sights set on reclaiming its throne atop the Sun Belt. And, of course, I have to delve into that pair of intriguing MW matchups.

Also, be sure to check out our weekly piece highlighting the top players at the Group of Five level in the season-long race for the Colt Brennan Award.

UTSA (8-3, 7-0) at Tulane (10-1, 7-0)

Friday, 3:30 PM ET | ABC

MyBookie Odds: Tulane -2.5

Last Matchup: UTSA 10-7 in 2013

NY6 Impact: High

Stars To Watch: Frank Harris (QB, UTSA), Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)

What’s On The Line: The American Athletic Conference Championship Game is nearly decided, with the winner of this matchup clinching a spot in the title game. Tulane has been the conference’s darling for the past two seasons, but Frank Harris and UTSA have experienced great success in their first year within the AAC and would love to end their inaugural campaign with a conference title.

Michael Pratt has been as efficient as ever for long-time head coach Willie Fritz, as he has completed 68.9% of his passes for 2,043 yards and 19 touchdowns. He can run it as well, although do-it-all tailback Makhi Hughes is generally the player Tulane wants to see with an open field of green in front of him. The Green Wave defense is even marginally improved from last season, holding teams to 18.6 points per game.

However, the reality of all of this is that Tulane has not been winning with style as of late. The Green Wave beat North Texas, Rice, East Carolina and Tulsa (all in the bottom half of the league) by single scores, and each side of the ball has failed the team in ways throughout this stretch. Tulane took down a reeling FAU team 24-8 last weekend, an improved albeit not flashy showing.

UTSA can certainly take advantage of those inconsistencies. With veteran quarterback Harris battling some early-season injuries, the Roadrunners fell to 1-3 with losses to Houston, Army and Tennessee. However, once Harris got healthy, the offense began clicking just like it has for the past three seasons under his guidance. Harris is an elite playmaker that can beat a defense with his arm or legs, and his connection with senior receiver Joshua Cephus (who just set the school’s single-season receiving yards record last week) is off the charts. UTSA is also in the midst of a seven-game winning streak following a 49-21 victory over South Florida last Friday. Harris played perhaps his best game of the season in that outing, throwing for 411 yards, rushing for another 112 and accounting for six total touchdowns. It will take another performance like that from the veteran signal-caller for the Roadrunners to come out on top in New Orleans.

UTSA is talented and explosive enough to hang with this Tulane team. Harris should have a phenomenal game and showcase his playmaking ability to the country, and his team will score enough to hang with Pratt and Co. Frankly, this one may purely come down to which star quarterback can out-duel the other.

In the end, Tulane has plenty of recent experience in winning marquee games, and that will pay off with yet another game-winning drive from the Tulane offense. The Green Wave will play their best when they need it most.

Score Prediction: Tulane 42, UTSA 38

James Madison (10-1, 6-1) at Coastal Carolina (7-4, 5-2)

3:30 PM ET | ESPN2

MyBookie Odds: JMU -9.5

Last Matchup: JMU 47-7 in 2022

NY6 Impact: Unfortunately Low

Stars To Watch: Jordan McCloud (QB, JMU), Ethan Vasko (QB, CCU)

What’s On The Line: Coastal Carolina will be the team that replaces JMU in the Sun Belt title game from the Eastern Division…if it can first beat the Dukes. I’d bet money that James Madison would love to rebound from its first loss of the season by taking down its potential “substitute.”

Thus, one could imagine that the energy will be high in Conway on Saturday. The Chanticleers were dethroned as the best team in the Sun Belt East when JMU joined the division in 2022, and they would also love nothing more than to add insult to injury for the Dukes. If they lose this game, then that gives App State a prime chance to take down Georgia Southern and replace CCU in the Sun Belt title game.

It’s been a resilient year for CCU, as it lost former head coach Jamey Chadwell to Liberty over the offseason and hired Tim Beck in his place. The marriage between the offensive-minded Beck and long-time quarterback Grayson McCall did not go smoothly at first, with the Chanticleers beginning the season at 2-3 with a pair of conference losses to boot. Then, McCall and the offense found their stride, and it led to two straight wins. Unfortunately, the veteran quarterback was hospitalized with a concussion in the 27-17 win over Arkansas State, and he has yet to play since.

But, freshman Ethan Vasko stepped in and became a hero for this team, racking up over 500 yards of offense and four total touchdowns in the team’s last two wins. A 31-23 statement win over a strong Texas State team two weeks ago highlighted the recent success of this team, but then Army hit the Chants with 365 rushing yards and took the air out of the ball in a 28-21 victory over CCU last weekend. Senior Jarrett Guest stepped in for Vasko and played admirably, but his unit didn’t have the ball enough to make a major impact.

JMU has been well-documented in this series, so I will refrain from delving into its story too much. All you need to know is this: Two-time transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud is playing at an incredibly high level, the Dukes have a ferocious defense even with star defensive end Jalen Green going down for the year, and this team has generally been an unstoppable force throughout the 2023 campaign.

Even with the loss of Green, the defeat to App State and CCU’s late-season conference momentum, you won’t catch me picking against the Dukes anytime soon. They’ll prove that they are still one of the elites in the Group of Five, and they could (figuratively) claim yet another Sun Belt Championship with them having beaten the two teams in the title game.

Score Prediction: James Madison 27, Coastal Carolina 23

The Mountain West

Air Force (8-3, 5-2) at Boise State (6-5, 5-2)

San José State (6-5, 5-2) at UNLV (9-2, 6-1)

MyBookie Odds: Boise State -6.5, UNLV -3.5

Last Matchup: Boise State 19-14 in 2022; SJSU 40-7 in 2022

NY6 Impact: Moderate

Stars To Watch: John Lee Eldridge III (RB, AF), George Holani (RB, BSU), Chevan Cordeiro (QB, SJSU), Ricky White (WR, UNLV)

What’s On The Line: We’re doing something a bit different with this one.

All four of these teams are still in the mix for the Mountain West title game. UNLV needs a win over SJSU and it is in. If the Rebels win, then they will be taking on the victor of the Air Force-Boise State matchup. If SJSU wins, then the Spartans will qualify for the championship bout. In that scenario, UNLV would still qualify over Air Force due to the head-to-head but would go into a tiebreaker scenario with the Broncos.

Everything is on the line in these two matchups, and it is on-brand for the conference to have this weekend feature a pair of blockbuster matchups given its depth throughout the 2023 season.

Air Force and Boise State will square off first on Friday night, and these two sides could not be going in more opposite directions. The Falcons have lost three straight, turning the ball over 11 times over that span in losses to Army, Hawai’i and UNLV. After being a virtual lock for the MW title game behind a dominant ground game and stout defense, the Falcons now have to play their way in. Boise State, meanwhile, has played its way back into the mix after a rocky start to the season, winning three of its past four and owning the head-to-head over SJSU. The quarterback situation in Boise is still questionable, with Taylen Green playing all of the Broncos’ last game against Utah State after Maddux Madsen had taken over for much of the middle of the season. 

In reality, the play behind center has not been what drives this team anyways. Ashton Jeanty has over 1,000 yards on the ground this season and is an incredibly versatile and dynamic runner, but he was hurt during most of October and November. Veteran bruiser George Holani took over after recovering from an offseason injury, and he picked up the slack and then some. Now, with Jeanty returning against the Aggies last week, BSU has a tandem of backs that complement each other well and a defense that has come into its own in recent weeks.

Then, San José State will make the trip to Vegas. The Spartans have come out of nowhere late in the season after starting out 1-5 and 0-2 in conference play. Brent Brennan has built this program from the ground up, and he has yet again seen the fruits of his labor in 2023. The SJSU defense has really come into its own, not allowing more than 30 points in a single outing during the team’s five-game winning streak. Former Hawaii quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has rebounded well from early-season struggles, and he spearheads an explosive offense that is more balanced than it has been in year’s past. 

UNLV has been a similar feel-good story in the conference under first-year head coach Barry Odom, with Jayden Maiava stepping in at quarterback for the injured Doug Brumfield early in the season and playing at an incredibly high level. Maiava frequently links up with former Michigan State wide receiver Ricky White, who is a sure-handed, speedy target that ranks sixth in the nation with 1,189 receiving yards.

The way I see it, Boise State is near-impossible to beat on the Smurf Turf, and Air Force is reeling. The Broncos will come out on top, and they will face off with a UNLV team that will win a shootout over SJSU.

Score Prediction: Boise State 23, Air Force 16; UNLV 42, San José State 31

And I just wanted to give a shoutout to Jacksonville State and New Mexico State, who will square off on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Gamecocks are not allowed to compete in the Conference USA title game due to the same NCAA rules that bar JMU from competing in the Sun Belt, otherwise this would be a play-in game. Still, seeing these two programs playing in a marquee game in their first seasons in the C-USA is impressive in its own right, and it should be a fun one to watch.

And now, 12 weeks into the season, we update the GO5 power rankings, with Liberty claiming the top spot from JMU and New Mexico State entering the mix:

1. Liberty
2. Tulane
3. SMU
4. UNLV
5. Troy
6. Toledo
7. UTSA
8. Miami (OH)
9. New Mexico State
10. James Madison