The 2023 NFL Draft is finally here, but before 31 (thanks Miami) men have their dreams realized Thursday night, I’m going to try to figure out where they’re going to be filing their taxes. I’m always up and down on whether or not to include trades in these, but this year I feel like there’s a few teams that are so obviously going to trade that it seems like I have to. I don’t want to venture on which teams will make good or bad trades and try to guess exact picks that are being moved, but I’ll make sure teams have enough capital and reason to move up. My mock last year ended up being miserable, and while I would hope this year would be better, this is one of the most unpredictable top fives I can remember. So without further ado, here we go.

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young QB — Alabama

Where there’s smoke there’s fire. The only team that has complete control over who they take is the Panthers, which is why it’s strange to see so much slander in general about C.J. Stroud. To me, it means that teams that are picking later are trying to lower his stock so that he’s available to them to either trade up or if they own picks three through six. 

Bryce is my top QB in the class by just a hair over Stroud, so I by no means think that Carolina is settling or making a bad pick here. What he lacks in size he makes up with magic. He’s about as polished a passer that comes out of the college game with a wicked clutch gene. 

2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr. EDGE — Alabama

The best player in this class. If Houston is going to pass on a QB, this is the only pick I endorse. Yes, the Texans’ offense will likely still be miserable next year, but Anderson is a franchise-changing talent on defense. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 10 years, or, if they don’t improve, until they trade him for three firsts in a few years.

3. Las Vegas Raiders: C.J. Stroud QB — Ohio State

Las Vegas trades up from 7 with Arizona. Let’s say the Raiders give up a future first and a second that can turn into a first if Stroud wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Las Vegas makes the first big move of the draft. Arizona is the most obvious trade down of the draft, and probably one of the most obvious trade down spots I have ever seen. The Cardinals are in an absolutely miserable spot in terms of cap and picks available to them, so they need to accrue capital and in a hurry. For the Raiders, they have a solid team and now get to build around their franchise QB.

They absolutely get a franchise QB as well. Stroud and Young are 1A and 1B for me. His arm talent is fantastic, and he’s shown he has room to grow with his scrambling ability like he displayed against Georgia. Speaking of which, he’s shown he’s at his best when the lights are brightest, with the best performance against the Georgia defense over the last few years. 

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis QB — Kentucky

I don’t agree with the pick, but I get it. Levis does have tools that if all the pieces come together, he will be a stud. New head coach Shane Steichen is an offensive coach, and he will want a QB he can mold to fit his offense. Levis can move both in and out of the pocket and can make throws to all levels.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter IDL — Georgia

This pick just makes too much sense. I would’ve considered a look at QB or a trade down here, but the run on QBs as well as the Geno Smith extension took that off the table. Instead, one of the best players in the class falls to five. Carter is a complete disruptor on the interior and is a perfect fit for what Seattle was missing last year. 

6. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon CB — Illinois

A corner was pretty much locked in for me here after the Jeff Okudah trade. If Stroud somehow falls to six, the Lions take him here, but outside of that it’s a corner. Of the corners, Witherspoon fits the Lions the best. If Dan Campbell wants an ankle biter, he’s getting one. He is easily the most vicious run defender of all the corners and will come downhill with a vengeance.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson EDGE — Texas Tech

I would consider having the Cardinals trade down again here. That’s how down bad they are in terms of capital. Instead, they take the guy they would’ve seriously considered at three anyway. Wilson might have the highest upside of any of the edge rushers. He has absurd measurables and is extremely athletic. If he hits, he’s a double-digit sack monster for years.

8. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Richardson QB — Florida

Titans get a QB, and the Falcons get a little capital with 11 and two seconds.

The news coming out about the Titans “losing faith” in Malik Willis was strangely timed. I truthfully didn’t think they had faith in him after last season, and I think they’ll be looking for a QB sooner rather than later. The ceiling is the roof for AR, and if you’re going to trade up it has to be for a guy you think can be great. He has every tool you can want out of a QB, and he makes throws that make you just laugh sometimes. Falcons gain some capital and can still take a skill position player.

9. Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski OL — Northwestern

I don’t know where he’s going to play, but he’s going to be good. The Bears need protection for Justin Fields to give him a shot to break out. You take Skoronski and you get a good OL that can play four positions right away. His versatility is great, and the only thing stopping him from going higher in this draft is his arm length. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith EDGE — Georgia

There have been late rumblings about the Eagles moving up to take one of the edge rushers, but I personally don’t see it with the depth at the position. If Anderson somehow falls to five, I can see them looking into it, but other than that it seems they’ll stand pat. They do end up taking an EDGE here and get the standout performer from the first day of the combine. They pair him back up with his Georgia teammate in Jordan Davis and hope they will wreak havoc on offensive lines.

11. Atlanta Falcons: Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR — Ohio State

This is probably who the Falcons take at eight if they don’t trade down. The smoke around them is either Bijan Robinson or JSN. I think wide receiver is the more obvious and important need for them, and I think they end up doing that. Beyond Drake London, there isn’t much going in the receiver room. So whether or not Desmond Ridder is the guy, or you’re getting one in the future, he needs more talent to throw to.

12. Houston Texans: Christian Gonzalez CB — Oregon

The Texans took a first-round corner in Derek Stingley Jr. last year, and they get another here with their second pick in the first round. HC DeMeco Ryans would love to build his defense up from one of the worst units in the league last year. The NFL is a copycat league, and after the success of the Eagles’ defense last year, there will be teams trying to replicate having two shutdown corners. The Texans get that here, pairing two young very good CBs.

13. Green Bay Packers: Myles Murphy EDGE — Clemson

The Packers are officially now in the post-Aaron Rodgers era, which means for the first time in a very long time, a QB not named Brett Favre or Rodgers will be under center. This could signal new life and they’ll finally take an offensive skill player, but I don’t think that’s likely. They like to build from the inside out, whether that’s OL or DL. They build up their EDGE group here that is currently mostly aging or recovering from injury. Murphy fits the prototype of players Green Bay likes to target — extremely athletic and very toolsy.

14. New England Patriots: Paris Johnson Jr. OT — Ohio State

There have been reports of the Pats making an extremely un-Patriots pick and targeting a WR or Bijan. With Paris sliding this far down though, I don’t think they can pass it up. Paris would likely be the highest-rated player on most teams’ boards at this point, New England included. He has all the pedigree in the world and has the potential to be a franchise tackle. 

15. New York Jets: Darnell Wright OT — Tennessee

The Jets need a RT at the moment, and Wright is a phenomenal pass protector. The only question marks about him are mental ones. On the field, there’s no question that he’s a stud out there. He can step in on day one and lock down the right side for them, and eventually move to the left if needed. Tackle is probably their biggest position of need, so a potential move down is available if they like some of the other tackles as much as Wright. Instead, they avoid the tackle run and grab their guy.

16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr. CB — Penn State

I don’t think there’s any question this pick is going to be a corner. So the only debate now is, which corner do they have rated the highest on their board? Porter Jr. is my personal CB1 in the class, and I think for a lot of teams he would be the highest corner on their boards at this pick. If he developed some ball skills, he has the potential to be a top five cornerback in the league.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones OT — Georgia

The tackle run continues here as the Steelers take Jones off the board. Jones is a very solid tackle with good strength, good agility, and a good eye for the game. He is a very cerebral player who sees stunts developing in front of him and can get to the second level with ease. I think the Steelers have their franchise quarterback in Kenny Pickett, and they get a tackle to defend his blindside here.

18. Detroit Lions: Quentin Johnston WR — TCU

I think the fit here is really intriguing as Johnston offers a lot of the same things that Amon-Ra St. Brown does. I don’t think that’s a bad thing though, and Detroit absolutely needs help in the pass catching room, especially after the Jameson Williams suspension. QJ’s biggest intrigue for me is that he doesn’t do most of the things you’d expect someone of his body type to do. If you can develop some of those jump ball traits, he could be an extremely valuable receiver in an offense.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dalton Kincaid TE — Utah

The Buccaneers are in a pretty bad place after the Tom Brady retirement, not that they’re complaining because they got their Super Bowl out of it. However, now it’s time to rebuild a team, and while I know it would be tempting to go defense, I feel like the Buccaneers want a tight end here. This tight end class is extremely bizarre to me as none of them jump out as an absolute lockdown number one tight end. However, I think that they are all very good. Because of that, locking down which tight end the team would have ranked first is difficult to do, but Kincaid seems to be the one I’m hearing the most buzz about being the first off the board, so he slots in here.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Zay Flowers WR — Boston College

Assuming the Seahawks go DL with the first pick, this pick screams skill position to me. That could be CB or WR, but it definitely feels like it should be someone on the outside. Tyler Lockett had a good year but is now on the wrong side of 30 and isn’t getting younger. Lockett interestingly enough is the comp I see the most of for Zay, so this feels a fitting landing spot. This locks down your receiver duo of the future with Zay and DK Metcalf, which feels very good.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Bijan Robinson RB — Texas

This is a shakeup folks. It’s feeling more and more like Austin Ekeler has played his last snap as a Charger, and this is a more than capable replacement. The value of taking a RB in the first will be argued until kingdom come, but taking one after 20 is much more palatable than in the top 10. This is obviously contingent on them moving Ekeler, which becomes a bit more difficult to do after the draft if they do in fact take Robinson. So that could be a big draft night trade that shakes some things up.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Deonte Banks CB — Maryland

The Baltimore kid stays in his hometown and gets to play for the Ravens. I still think this pick should be a receiver, but the Ravens seem set on making Lamar Jackson hate them, so I don’t think they’ll take one. They still get an absolute stud of a CB here, so it’s not a bad pick by any stretch. Banks is a lockdown corner, and corner is a position of need. Good process in terms of team building, maybe not great in terms of trying to keep your MVP QB.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Cam Smith CB — South Carolina

Another mini run here as back-to-back corners go off the board. A cornerback to Minnesota has been the most obvious pick in the draft for roughly four months. The signing of one starting CB in free agency does nothing to change that. My personal CB2 slides to the fifth corner off the board, and I think a few teams are going to regret that. This corner class is ridiculous though, so if all of them became Pro Bowlers, I would not be surprised.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch DB — Alabama

This pick seems like it’s the worst kept secret in draft circles. It pops up in nearly every single mock I see, and I won’t be changing the formula here. The Jags need to start building their defense so Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have to come back from down 28 all the time. Branch is a good starting point to that and is a strong piece to build around in the secondary.

25. New York Giants: Jordan Addison WR — USC

Daniel Jones earned his new contract after a strong showing last year, and he did it with a less than desirable receiving corps. Now it’s time to build around him. If you’re going to give him the contracts, you need to give him the targets. Addison slides probably further than he should as a former Biletnikoff Award winner, but the reigning winner is still going after him so he can’t be that upset. He gives the Giants a silky smooth route runner that can line up all over the formation.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer TE — Notre Dame

I’m not sure why the Cowboys seem to want a tight end so badly, but here we are. Personally, I’d be looking at adding another corner here, but I understand that the class is deep and there will be options for that later. If you had told someone at this time last year that Michael Mayer lasted until the 26th pick, they would’ve been pretty shocked, so it’s a good value pick here. He is good at everything you ask a tight end to do and will be a steady contributor in the middle of that Dallas offense for years to come.

27. Buffalo Bills: Calijah Kancey IDL — Pittsburgh

I think the Bills would’ve preferred a WR to fall to them here, but with Addison going at 25, I believe the last guy they would’ve had a first-round grade on is gone. Instead, they get Ed Oliver a running partner in the middle of the DL. Kancey has been all over draft boards after his stellar combine, popping up anywhere as high as the top five and as low as out of the first. I think the 20s is a good landing spot for him, and he joins a good defense in Buffalo.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Washington TE — Georgia

In college, Joe Burrow was one of the highest targeters of tight ends to go in the first round. Yet, the Bengals have failed to give him a good one since he’s been there. That changes with the freak of nature that is Darnell Washington. Beyond being a massive red zone threat with his size and ball skills, he is a legitimate math changer in the run game. He gives teams another OL to calculate for, except this one can run a 4.64 40 and catch the ball.

29. New Orleans Saints: Lukas Van Ness DL — Iowa

The rumor mill has this pick pegged as being Bryan Bresee, and while I think they would take him if Van Ness was gone, I think most people are projecting him to be gone by the New Orleans pick. I, however, am not most people. I don’t see it with Van Ness as a top 15 pick like most do. He has a great bull rush and is freakishly strong, but that’s about it. You can’t just overpower people in the NFL. It’s not that easy. I expect it to be a learning curve for Van Ness his first couple years, and Cameron Jordan would be a great teacher for him.

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs RB — Alabama

This might be more wishful thinking than anything, but wow would this be a hell of a selection. I thought OL was on the board here, and it still might be, but the Lane Johnson extension took that off the board for me. Grabbing a guard in O’Cyrus Torrence also crossed my mind, but I think they’re going to try Cam Jurgens there. The options then were either trade down, take Jalin Hyatt or take Gibbs. I couldn’t find a good trade down partner, and while Hyatt would be a solid WR3, I think Gibbs changes the offense more.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald IV EDGE — Iowa State

I don’t have a good reason for this pick, but this is who I’ve thought the Chiefs were taking for months and I can’t shake it. They do need help on the defensive line, but there are plenty of options available there. McDonald just feels like a Chief to me. Call it a gut feeling, but that’s how I wrap up my mock.