We get a special treat in the 2023-2024 college football season. In the midst of its conference rehaul, the Big 12 has an overlap of teams this year.
After losing Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF became the Big 12’s contingency plan. They agreed to join the conference starting in 2023, but the Sooners and Longhorns are sticking around for another season before they move on.
Thus, the Big 12 will have 14 members for this season. The usual round-robin style of the conference will not exist, but we will get to see some very intriguing matchups as a result. The Big 12 as a whole now expands as far west as Utah and as far east as Florida, tapping into new regions for recruiting exposure and some incredible new venues. These four schools also now have the opportunity to truly become a consistent national contender on the college football landscape, as there are immeasurable benefits to being a Power Five program.
The remaining members of the Big 12 would love nothing more than to send Oklahoma and Texas off with some losses, and the new members would love nothing more than to stake their claim to this new conference with wins over those two perennial powers.
BYU
2022 Record: 8-5
Notable Returners/Additions: Ben Bywater (JR, LB), Keanu Hill (JR, WR), Kedon Slovis (SR, QB)
Conference Slate: @ Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, @ TCU, vs. Texas Tech, @ Texas, @ West Virginia, vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma State
At long last, BYU has made the move from being one of college football’s few independent teams to being a member of a conference. The Cougars have been a growing program under Kalani Sitake in recent years, with 29 wins and two bowl victories in the past three seasons.
Contrary to how Sitake’s early BYU teams were constructed, the Cougars have been winning with offense. It helps when you have future pro quarterbacks in Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall leading the team, but Sitake has also developed some high-level wide receivers and tight ends. The main concern is that the new-found offensive success was merely a trade-off, as the Cougars allowed 29.5 points per game in 2022.
Entering this season, BYU faces plenty of question marks. Hall left for the NFL, meaning that journeyman Kedon Slovis will look to take over as the starter. After a stint at USC in which he showed immense potential but injuries hindered him, Slovis had a rocky ‘22 season with Pittsburgh. Still, he has all of the arm talent to be a high-level quarterback at this level.
Puka Nacua departs from the receiving corps after leading the team in yards last season, but senior Keanu Hill was second on the team with 572 yards and should slide comfortably into the No. 1 spot. Aidan Robbins was a highly-touted transfer from UNLV and should be reliable in the backfield.
The main headline to follow for the Cougars — outside of Slovis — will be the improvement of this defense. Entering the Big 12, BYU can not afford to be as lackluster on the defensive end as it was in ‘22. Otherwise, the offensive-minded teams of the conference will score a lot more than just 29 points on its unit.
The good news is that the majority of the major defensive contributors from last season will return. Ben Bywater and Micah Harper were one and two on this team in tackles and should lead the team from their linebacker and safety spots, respectively. Linebacker Max Tooley, who tied with Bywater for the team-lead with three interceptions last season, will also return.
A focal point will be to manufacture more of a pass rush than the Cougars did in ‘22, as no player had more than three sacks individually.
BYU is the only one of the new additions that will play both Texas and Oklahoma in 2023. While there will be struggles for Sitake’s group at times this season, getting a win over either of those teams would likely be enough to consider the 2023 campaign a success.
Prediction: 5-7 (3-6)
CINCINNATI
2022 Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Notable Returners/Additions: Deshawn Pace (SR, LB), Jowon Briggs (SR, DT), Emory Jones (RS SR, QB)
Conference Slate: vs. Oklahoma, @ BYU, vs. Iowa State, vs. Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, vs. UCF, @ Houston, @ West Virginia, vs. Kansas
The Bearcats get the distinct privilege of being able to open up their stay in the Big 12 with a home date against Oklahoma. New head coach Scott Satterfield, who replaces the departed Luke Fickell from Louisville, can make a statement with an opening win over the Sooners.
The post-Fickell era will be interesting to watch in Cincinnati. Questions remain about if the same elite culture can be continued without Fickell, and many wonder if the Bearcats defenses will continue to be among the best in the country without his fingerprints on it.
The quarterback battle between Arizona State transfer Emory Jones and Ben Bryant will be an interesting one. Jones may have a higher ceiling and can make things happen with his legs, but Bryant has been in this program for years and was the starter in ‘22. Replacing the services of a myriad of star defensive players (Ivan Pace Jr., Ja’Von Hicks, etc.) will also be a tall order for Satterfield in year one.
Ultimately, little is known about what this program will look like without Fickell at the helm. On paper, it appears that Cincinnati will go through some rough patches in adjusting to life in the Big 12, especially with its play style. However, Iowa State and Baylor have made the physical, run-first approach work in recent years, so maybe the Bearcats can come in and do the same thing.
Prediction: 5-7 (3-6)
HOUSTON
2022 Record: 8-5 (5-3)
Notable Returners/Additions: Brandon Campbell (SOPH, RB), Matthew Golden (SOPH, WR), David Ugwoegbu (SR, DL)
Conference Slate: vs. TCU, @ Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia, vs. Texas, @ Kansas State, @ Baylor, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Oklahoma State, @ UCF
Dana Holgorsen finds himself right back in the conference that he left just four years ago. The former West Virginia coach brings a promising Houston program into the Power Five world with big goals, and potentially some redemption, in mind.
With Houston and its surrounding areas being such rich recruiting grounds, the Cougars will now be able to fully take advantage of that as a Power Five program. No longer can Texas, Texas Tech, TCU or Baylor tell recruits, “Houston doesn’t play in a major league. Why would you go there?”
On top of that, Holgorsen has plenty of experience with what it takes to win in the Big 12, and he has a program that should be competitive in the conference for years to come.
Unfortunately, it may be setting up to be a rough year one. With the departures of long-time quarterback Clayton Tune, star wide receiver Nathaniel “Tank” Dell and the team’s top two tacklers from a season ago, the Cougars are in a transition period in more ways than one.
Holgorsen has excelled at developing quarterbacks in his time at the collegiate level, and he has two options for the 2023 season. Arkansas transfer Lucas Coley sat behind Tune last season and appeared to be poised to take the starting job in ‘23. Then, Donovan Smith opted to transfer over from Texas Tech, creating a QB competition. Smith has plenty of experience and showed flashes of great potential in Lubbock, but staying healthy will be key for a player that was plagued by injury.
Replacing Dell’s productivity and overall ability will be individually impossible, so it will have to be a group effort. On the other side of the ball, plenty of new faces will be sliding into larger roles, which is not what you want when entering the conference that is known for eviscerating opposing defenses at a breakneck pace. Oklahoma transfer David Ugwoegbu should be a major contributor, and the hope is that his experience in the conference will allow him to lead this defense.
Holgorsen will work some magic to get this team to a bowl game, but Houston’s potential in this conference lies in the long-term, not the short.
Prediction: 6-6 (3-6)
UCF
2022 Record: 9-5 (6-2)
Notable Returners/Additions: John Rhys Plumlee (SR, QB), Javon Baker (SR, WR), Jason Johnson (RS SR, LB)
Conference Slate: @ Kansas State, vs. Baylor, @ Kansas, @ Oklahoma, vs. West Virginia, @ Cincinnati, vs. Oklahoma State, @ Texas Tech, vs. Houston
The Gus Bus resides in Orlando nowadays, and it is chugging right along. Gus Malzahn found a rebound job with UCF after being fired at Auburn, and he has maintained the level of success that Scott Frost and Josh Heupel did before him.
Malzahn has an 18-9 record through two seasons with one American Conference Championship appearance. While Knights fans are used to much more than that, there is comfort in knowing that Malzahn has kept UCF nationally relevant.
Known as an offensive-minded coach throughout his career, Malzahn was a perfect fit for a program that prides itself on speed and putting up plenty of points. The Knights have averaged over 30 points per game in both of his seasons at the helm. The likes of John Rhys Plumlee and Isaiah Bowser revitalized their careers in Orlando, making UCF a very desirable spot for transfers.
With Plumlee and star linebacker Jason Johnson returning, the Knights have leaders on both sides of the ball. Ryan O’Keefe transferred to Boston College and Bowser graduated, but with Javon Baker back at wide receiver, RJ Harvey returning at running back and a host of other explosive weapons waiting to break out, the skill positions should be no reason for concern.
The key for this program will be translating an above average defense in the AAC to being a respectable one in the Big 12. This conference tests defenses like no other (feels like I’ve said this 10 times now), and Malzahn and co. will not be able to tread water if they are always in shootouts.
Another storyline to follow is recruiting for the Knights. With them now being a Power Five squad, will more of the top-tier Florida recruits consider them? Or, will their move into the conference open the door for others in the Big 12 to step in and invade the state?
The schedule is intriguing, with the unfortunate reality of only having four conference games at the raucous Bounce House. Still, this is a team that benefits from a lighter non-conference schedule (@ Boise is no joke, but not what it used to be), and they have the talent and coaching to step in and immediately compete in the Big 12.
The Knights will remain in the conference championship picture until late in the season, but they will ultimately finish around fifth or sixth in the conference standings.
Prediction: 8-4 (5-4)
About the author
I grew up a Tennessee fan in Atlanta, and yes it was certainly rough to live amongst so many UGA fans. Oregon has also been a favorite team of mine for as long as I can remember. I currently attend the University of Missouri studying sports journalism. I also cover Mizzou's FB and MBB teams for Rock M Nation.
