To round out the regular season, the Penn State Nittany Lions welcome Michigan State to Happy Valley. The Spartans haven’t exactly had a promising season, sitting at 5-6 and coming off of a brutal overtime loss to Indiana. If the Nittany Lions want to stay in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl, they have to win this game. They have mowed down Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers, and are now looking to do the same to Michigan State. 

Contain the Spartans Run Game

Quarterback Payton Thorne has had a rough go of it this season. He’s only averaging 222.7 yards per game, and you could argue that stat is slightly inflated because of how much he threw in losses to Indiana and Washington. Losing Kenneth Walker III to the draft has really hurt this offense. Transfers Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard are very capable running backs, but neither could replicate the Doak Walker Award season Walker had in 2021. Last week, Berger and Elijah Collins each ran for over 100 yards, but they still lost the game because the Spartans defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. For the last three games and three quarters of the Ohio State game, Penn State has excelled in run defense. In the last three wins, the Nittany Lions are allowing an average of just 52.3 rushing yards per game. Guys like Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac, Abdul Carter, and Dominic DeLuca have been excellent in crashing down and stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage. If these guys are able to replicate their recent successes, Michigan State could be in for a long game. 

Produce Better Offensive Possessions

Penn State put up 55 points against Rutgers last week, but 21 of them came from defensive and special teams scores. Mike Yurcich needs to do a better job of calling plays that will sustain long drives and result in points. I don’t know what Sean Clifford’s deal has been of late, but he needs to make better throws. He’s been doing a good job of beating defenses with his legs, but his deep ball has not been good. Too many times, Mitchell Tinsley has been open down the field and Clifford can’t hit him. I would really like to see Yurcich call a healthy balance of run plays and pass plays that result in 7-10 yard receptions. Clifford is very good with short to mid-range throws, and the play-calling should reflect that.

RUN THE BALL

Once again, the duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton excelled. They combined for 179 yards and a touchdown on only 20 carries. They should be relied upon heavily in this game. Indiana only threw the ball seven times against Michigan State last week while rushing for 257 yards on 44 carries. There’s no reason to not give Allen and Singleton 15-20 carries each. They will absolutely dominate this Spartans front. Penn State relying on the run game will open up Clifford to hit open receivers in the middle of the field. I expect the kids to combine for 250 yards on the ground and three touchdowns. 

My Prediction:

Just like the past three weeks, Penn State should play very good defense and run the ball well, but because it’s Michigan State, the game will probably be close for at least the first half. I think the Nittany Lions win 38-20.