The dominoes continue to fall toward a world of power conferences in college football.

Oregon and Washington are reportedly joining the Big Ten starting in 2024, according to multiple reports, including Brett McMurphy of Action Network. The move, which many thought to be inevitable, shrinks the Pac-12’s projected membership to just seven programs next year.

While the Pac-12 will likely continue to dissipate over the coming months, the Big Ten now has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to strong college football programs. The dominant programs of the North (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State) will now take on those that have reigned supreme over the West coast this century (USC, Oregon, Washington, UCLA).

The elephant in the room, however, is that only a handful of those programs will be able to maintain their level of success. There may be five or six programs worthy of being top 20 teams from the Big Ten each year, but it will almost never work out that way due to scheduling. Conference cannibalization will be at an all-time high in this new age, and the Big Ten is no different.

In an effort to sift through the mess, here’s how I believe the conference will *generally* shake out year-after-year in the new-look Big Ten.

The National Title Contenders

Michigan, Ohio State, USC

Even in this new world of 16+ team conferences, having more than three national championship contenders in a single league will be very difficult to come by. Just from an odds perspective, consistently winning games against top-tier competition can only be done by a select few.

To me, Michigan, Ohio State and USC are the only three that are capable of accomplishing that year in and year out. 

The Buckeyes speak for themselves. They’ve been near the top of the college football world for quite some time now, have dominated the Big Ten and consistently produce some of the best NFL talent. Their arch rivals appear to be approaching that level of dominance under Jim Harbaugh, and the pieces are in place for the Wolverines to continue on the trajectory they are on.

USC, despite its national reputation and history, is a bit more questionable in this regard. After all, making a move to a new conference often comes with plenty of bumps in the road, and the Trojans may have trouble adjusting to a very different style of football in the Big Ten.

Still, I point at two reasons for USC being right alongside OSU and Michigan in this category. First, Southern Cal will always be one of the top programs in the nation when it comes to recruiting, NIL and player exposure. Talent will never be a concern for the Trojans, and thus adjusting to the personnel of the Big Ten should not be one either in the long-term. Second, Lincoln Riley is the head coach at USC. There are certainly doubts about his ability to win in the postseason, but nobody can deny that Riley’s offenses have yet to be truly stumped, and he continually improves his schemes year-after-year to stay a step ahead of the competition. There may be a learning curve, even for him, but Riley’s program will be able to stay near the top thanks to his offensive wizardry.

It’ll Take A Special Season

Oregon, Washington, Penn State

Logically, based on projected talent, recent success and coaching ability, you could group any of these three teams into the above category. But, from a realist’s perspective, half of that top six will have to take a step back due to the influx of new programs. After all, the addition of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington just means that there are more tough games on the schedule for every single team.

I believe that these three schools will fall behind the perennial contenders of the conference in the general pecking order. Of course, it is certainly plausible and likely that each of them will have a one-off season in which they upend the top tier, making a run at the national championship. For the same reasons listed at the beginning of this section, they are more than capable of making that happen.

The concern lies in sustaining that success. Penn State has fallen victim to playing second fiddle to Ohio State and Michigan in recent years, and while it broke through in 2016, it took a handful of lucky bounces for that to happen.

The same will be the case for Oregon and Washington when they join the league. Once every five or so seasons, one of the pair will go on a deep run, surprising the conference and rekindling the excitement around the program. Then, Ohio State, Michigan and USC will bury them into the second tier again, starting the cycle all over.

Wild Cards

Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan State

Now we check in with the programs with largely uncertain futures. Each of these schools have the potential to take a large step back when the contenders from the Pac-12 arrive, or they could jump into one of the top two tiers.

New coaching staffs at Wisconsin and Nebraska make them perhaps the most intriguing on this list. With more up-tempo teams joining the conference, are Luke Fickell’s offensive changes in Madison coming at the perfect time? And will the ultimate program builder, Matt Rhule, be able to maintain an upward trajectory amid so much change in the league?

For Michigan State and Iowa, the question mark lies with their current coaching staffs. Following an impressive 2021 season that resulted in a Peach Bowl victory, Mel Tucker’s Spartans took a mighty step back to 5-7 in ‘22. With a hefty contract backing him, Tucker needs to quickly get the program back on track to rejoin the upper echelon of the conference. Iowa, on the other hand, has a coaching staff that has fielded one of the worst offenses in the country for much of the past decade, and the “defense-first” moniker of Kirk Ferentz may be becoming a bit outdated. Both of these programs have the potential to become contenders in the conference yet again (see 2015 Big Ten title game), but they sit at a crossroads.

UCLA, the last entrant from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, similarly has plenty of potential but is not as well-established as its West Coast brethren. The Bruins likely won’t struggle for talent, but they need to make major advances in the trenches and find a new quarterback to lead them into the Big Ten in 2023, which they hope will be five-star Dante Moore. For Chip Kelly’s bunch, this upcoming season is an incredibly pivotal season not only for wins and losses, but also for preparing the program for the move next season.

The one thing that may help them the most: Kelly has seen a lot of football at different levels. Nothing will faze him, even in a new conference.

Will Take A Sizable Step Back

Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota

If you are a fan of any of these teams, shield your eyes. These are the programs that will suffer the most from the realignment within the Big Ten.

Playing an absurdly difficult schedule is nothing new for Maryland, so the Terrapins may not be as affected on the field as other programs. Despite that, the reality is that the Terps will suffer more losses annually, as they are a solid step behind any of the above schools in terms of overall talent, resources and prestige. Mike Locksley has done a great job with recruiting the DMV area and revitalizing the Maryland program, but Taulia Tagovailoa will leave after this season, and with him will all those years of development. Locksley and Co. will have to start fresh with a very green roster in ‘24, a year in which they really can not afford to be plugging in too many new pieces.

P.J. Fleck and Minnesota have enjoyed a fair level of success in the Big Ten recently, qualifying for four straight bowl games (not including 2020) and finishing with 11 wins in 2019. Fleck’s “Row the Boat” mantra has carried over well to the Twin Cities, and the Golden Gophers have done well to tread water in the ever-perplexing Big Ten West.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, along with Illinois and Purdue, benefitting from playing in a weaker division is no longer a reality. Thus, the trio will have to experience Maryland’s pain of playing an absurd amount of top-15 caliber opponents annually. And, unfortunately for these three programs, the ceiling is only so high.

These will all be programs that likely have one or two breakthrough seasons of eight or more wins but then fall back into a below average state for roughly a decade.

Residing In The Cellar

Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana

The poor get poorer in this case. For various reasons, Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana have each fallen into a realm of relative darkness in the Big Ten, suffering through losing season after losing season. The Wildcats have so many off-field issues to sift through that it is difficult to imagine them fielding a competitive team in the new-look Big Ten for years to come. Indiana, while not in the same situation, may be in a similar boat soon after Tom Allen’s recent struggles at the helm.

There is a bit more light at the end of the tunnel for Rutgers, as Greg Schiano is a well-established coach that could lead the program out of the dark ages. But at the end of the day, every single team in this conference outside of the top two-to-three teams will suffer more losses per year when the Pac-12 schools join next year. Such is the way numbers work, and they will not work out in the favor of these three schools.

To note: If California and Stanford join the Big Ten, they would in all likelihood reside in the cellar as well.