The 2022 Holiday Bowl pits the Pac-12 against the ACC as the Oregon Ducks and their flashy offense take on the North Carolina Tar Heels and their flashy offense. Double the offense, half the defense, because UNC doesn’t really know to do that. Will Bo Nix and the feisty Ducks come out on top? Or will Drake Maye and the Tar Heels keep the Ducks from flying back north unscathed?

How Oregon Got Here:

In short, beating the Pac-12 champion but losing to possible future back-to-back national champion Georgia, Washington, and Oregon State. After their blowout loss to the Dawgs of Georgia, the Ducks won eight straight, but stumbled toward the end of the season losing by four points or fewer to rivals Washington and Oregon State. 

The transfer/opt-out situation is not great for either team. Oregon will be without Kenny Dillingham, who left his offensive coordinator position to become the head coach at Arizona State. Player-wise, the Ducks will be down backup quarterback Jay Butterfield (TP), RB Byron Cardwell (TP), RB Sean Dollars (TP), WR Seven McGee (TP), WR Dont’e Thornton (TP), TE Terrell Tilmon (TP), OT Bram Walden (TP), OT Dawson Jaramillo (TP), DE Bradyn Swinson (TP), LB Justin Flowe (TP), CB Christian Gonzalez, LB Noah Sewell, and OLB DJ Johnson (opt-outs for the draft). If you got tired just reading that list, join the club. Sewell was the leader of the Ducks defense, and Johnson was the leader in sacks with six. Gonzalez was an All-Pac-12 First Team selection and one of the best cornerbacks in the nation with four interceptions this season. 

Oregon has the fourth top scoring offense with 39.7 points per game and ranks fourth in total offense with 507.8 yards per game. The Ducks are 19-of-31 (61.9%) in fourth down efficiency due in part to Dillingham’s bold play-calling, but 69-of-150 (46.0%) in third down efficiency. Oregon’s offensive line has been a big part of its offensive success, only allowing four sacks for 18 yards lost all season — the best in the nation. 

How North Carolina Got Here:

The Tar Heels had one of the most interesting seasons we saw all year. Interesting is a very vague word, but I struggle to find a single word that can be so positive and so negative at the same time. On one hand, UNC had one of the most potent offenses in the country, led by a redshirt freshman phenom quarterback in Drake Maye. Maye was a Heisman candidate for most of the season, showing out with weapons like Josh Downs. In his first year, he is already surrounding himself in a ton of NFL draft hype for the 2024 cycle.

As for positives on the defensive side of the ball, the only positive is that we haven’t had to watch them for a few weeks. UNC’s defense was arguably one of the worst units I watched in the entire country all year, whether it was lack of pressure, constant broken coverages, or an absolute abomination that I don’t even want to call attempts at tackling. What Gene Chizik did to that unit doesn’t really seem possible. This unit gave up 24 points to Florida A&M, 40 points in a SINGLE QUARTER against Appalachian State, and 45 points to a Notre Dame team that was offensively inept for the first half of the season. If I could go the rest of my life without watching that defense again (which is kind of impossible because of this game), it would be too soon. 

Players To Watch:

Oregon:

QB Bo Nix — Despite suffering an ankle injury in the loss against Washington, Bo Nix is eighth in the nation in total yards per game with 324.3. He is tied for third in total touchdowns with 42 and has the fourth-best QBR at 87.2. He completed 271 of his 379 passes (71.5%) on the season, averaging 8.9 yards per throw with 27 TD passes. This season, he’s rushed 84 times for 504 yards and 14 TDs (most in FBS among quarterbacks), and he also has two receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown.

RB Bucky Irving — The former Minnesota running back leads the team in rushing yards this season. The sophomore has 143 attempts for 906 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, with six total TDs. He also has 30 receptions for 300 yards. He has a bright future with the Ducks and could dominate the run game, especially with the RBs who have departed this offseason.

S Bennett Williams — Senior defensive back Bennett Williams has a team-high 67 tackles, with 45 solo and one sack this season. He has forced two fumbles and intercepted two passes.

North Carolina:

QB Drake Maye — I understand that it is obvious you need to watch Maye, but I’m grasping at straws here. And if I have to grasp at a straw, I’m okay if my straw is a favorite for the 2023-24 Heisman Trophy because of his ability to throw a football through a brick wall. He is really accurate at all levels, and his legs help accentuate that great arm. Maye already has talks about being a top five pick in 2024, so let’s watch him dice up an Oregon defense that is going to be shorthanded.

WR Antoine Green — I wanted to take a defensive player, but I can’t let you think I want you to watch the defense unless you are, umm, not completely sober. With Josh Downs opting out in favor of Sunday pastures, Antoine Green is going to step into that WR1 left behind. Maye and Downs had a special connection all year long, but Green isn’t just some dweeb they found in the facilities. He was the receiver for the longest pass play of the year (80), and he also reeled in seven touchdowns of his own. Look for him to expose an Oregon secondary that will be feeling the loss of Christian Gonzalez. 

Score Predictions:

Andrew: As much as I love watching Drake Maye play football, that defense is worse than the power going out during the National Championship. That defense is worse than finding grounds of coffee in your mug. That defense is worse than when your favorite movie has a sequel and it’s almost as bad as the UNC defense. That defense is so bad that… (editor Dylan here, Andrewster kept rambling with these analogies for about five more pages. I’ll simplify his point for him: North Carolina’s defense is trash). Bo Nix is a certified stud as well, which makes me think, no, I know that he is going to go nuclear. Even with some opt-outs for Oregon that are impactful, UNC’s defense won’t be able to expose those losses. Oregon 46, North Carolina 32.

Grace: I’m going with the oddsmakers on the Holiday Bowl winner, but I think the point differential will be closer than they’re predicting. With neither team playing the roster they started the season with, I don’t know who we’ll see out there. Will Drake Maye win the day? Or will Bo Nix ride home with the title? I look forward to an offense-centric game, but I think the Ducks will weather the Storm (ahaha get it?) and pull it out. Oregon 35, North Carolina 28.

Odds:

ORE -14 (-110) O/U 75 (-110) ML: ORE -550 UNC +400 (as of Dec. 26 via BetMGM)