The College Football Playoff is upon us! The third-seeded TCU Horned Frogs will face the second-seeded Michigan Wolverines in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl with a trip to Los Angeles and the 2023 CFP National Championship Game up for grabs.

How We Got Here:

TCU:

The Horned Frogs entered the year as a bit of an unknown dark horse. In my Big 12 preview, my final thoughts on TCU were, “I don’t have a strong feeling on their win total, but at +1600 they seem to have a decent shot in a wide open Big 12.” They certainly had a shot.

TCU enters the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history after an undefeated regular season. The season was full of huge wins, as it ran the ringer of top Big 12 opponents. Every week, it seemed like people had decided it was finally the Horned Frogs’ week to lose, and every week they answered the call. They won in just about every way you can think of: blowout wins, huge second half comebacks, last-second field goals with the clock running, and high-scoring back and forth shootouts. First-year head coach Sonny Dykes and his staff have crafted a masterful offense, and with speed to burn throughout the team, they are ready to make some noise on the national stage.

Michigan: 

Winning, a whole lot of winning. The Wolverines are back in the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season, this time off the back of their offensive line. The Joe Moore Award winners led an incredible rushing attack of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards all year long. While its non-conference schedule was very weak (outside of a bowl-eligible UConn), Michigan did what it was expected to if it was to make the playoff — beat Ohio State. Every game up until that point meant nothing compared to beating the school that loves the word “THE.” And not only did the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes, they walked into their house and slapped them, with some big plays from the arm of J.J. McCarthy, some cowardly decisions by Ryan Day, and some late runs by Edwards, Michigan showed everyone it is for real.

Some people had their doubts about Michigan. This team was losing at halftime to Rutgers. Freaking Rutgers. The Wolverines struggled with teams like Maryland, about one quarter of Indiana, and almost lost to Illinois if not for the icy veins of Jake Moody. After losing David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson to the draft, Mike Morris was a guy on the defensive line who really took a big step in his development to be that true game-wrecker, which the Wolverines needed. After beating a decent Purdue team in Indianapolis, Michigan has its sights set on the Cinderella Horned Frogs.

Players to Watch:

TCU:

#15 QB Max Duggan — The Heisman Trophy finalist recently declared for the draft, but he made one thing very clear: “We still have work to do.” While there is still work to do, I would be remiss to not mention the work he has already done. The four-year starter at TCU had his magnum opus in his final season. An undefeated regular season where Duggan had a sublime 30-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio, to go along with 3,321 yards and a trip to New York. He also added over 400 yards on the ground, six rushing TDs and a drafty amount of grit. He is the unquestioned leader of TCU and, despite the loss, his performance against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship only solidified that. Despite playing clearly hampered, he still had his team on the 1-yard line with a chance to win the game. Perhaps a different play call on the goal line and we are talking about a chance at a 15-0 season, but nonetheless, Max was absolutely phenomenal this year. 

#33 RB Kendre Miller — It has been extremely difficult to run on Michigan this year. The Wolverines allow the third-fewest yards per game on the ground. Some of that is the result of leading so much, but most of it is just plain having a good defense. The Wolverines have a dirty little secret though: they kind of suck in the first half. Multiple times down the back stretch of the season, they were either trailing or barely beating teams that are far inferior to them. Luckily for them, their talent and second-half adjustments allowed them to win most of these games, but if they fall behind to a team as good as TCU, they could be in trouble. In this scenario, where TCU has a lead and is trying to salt the game away, Kendre Miller becomes massively important. Because even though the Horned Frogs have been dominant through the air, they also average 200 yards a game on the ground. They have the ability to pound the rock and get out of a jam, and Kendre is a huge part of that. He has phenomenal contact balance and rarely goes down to the first tackler. This has led to him having a huge 1,342-yard season, with 17 touchdowns tacked on. If TCU is going to win, one or both of these guys has to pop off.

Michigan:

The Entire Offensive Line — I understand this is “players to watch,” but you can’t not talk about the offensive line. More specifically, how it is going to dominate the front lines of the TCU defense. The Horned Frogs run a lot of 3-3 fronts, which means that they are at an instant disadvantage in the run game. If they don’t adjust into more four-man fronts (or even some bear fronts if they really want to catch Michigan off guard), this Michigan offensive line will be licking its chops. Sonny Dykes has said he knows the focus he will need to put on stopping the run is important, but it’s easier to say than to execute when there is this much of a difference between the defensive philosophy and the opponent’s offensive gameplan.

#58 IDL Mazi Smith — With Michigan’s run game being highlighted, I should also bring up TCU’s. TCU not only has a stud in Kendre Miller, but quarterback Max Duggan is able to scoot as well. Mazi Smith is an NFL draft prospect that many are going to fall in love with over the next few months. How Smith is not only able to stop the run, but affect Duggan as a passer will be critical.

Score Predictions: 

Matt: This should be a close game in my opinion. Michigan is among the more underwhelming undefeated teams in recent memory and really only has one all-caps WIN. It is a team that struggles in the first half and overwhelms its opponents in the second half by outclassing them. If the Wolverines don’t completely outclass their opponent, what happens? This is what I think we will see in the Fiesta Bowl. I think TCU has a good shot in this one, and if the Horned Frogs get a J.J. McCarthy turnover or two, they will win this game. TCU 35, Michigan 33 (OT).

Andrew: I’m not going to make some long-winded conversation piece about how TCU needed more respect over the regular season for being better than people wanted to give it credit for, because I would be lying. The Horned Frogs were underrated for half the season, then they became overrated. This TCU team does not have the strength to stay with Michigan in the trenches. If J.J. McCarthy doesn’t turn the ball over and hits the easy throws, I’m taking Michigan convincingly. Michigan 34, TCU 17.