As impatience and expectations across the college football landscape have grown in recent years, the job security of being a college football head coach has taken a massive hit. Nowadays, one disappointing season can be all it takes in some scenarios, and long-time leaders are being scrutinized like never before.
In some ways, this can be a good thing. Coaches are being held more accountable than ever, and those who can not fit the bill are swiftly moved on from. Just as easily as a player can be benched, a coordinator or even head coach is just as replaceable.
Scott Frost, Herm Edwards, Geoff Collins, Paul Chryst and Karl Dorrell were all fired before Week 6 of the 2022 season, showing how common it is for programs to move on from coaches as soon as possible. With the new college football calendar, schools need new coaches in place to handle the early signing period and transfer portal.
However, we have seen this backfire in some instances. Many programs have a major lack of continuity and identity due to the fluidity of the coaching carousel. Players are forced to adapt to two and sometimes even three coaching styles, playbooks and cultures during their college careers, which does not lend to quality player development.
Regardless, this is the reality of a sport that is all about “what have you done for me lately?”
These three coaches have not done a whole lot lately, and it has caused their fan bases and administrations to have doubts about the future of the programs. In my eyes, each of these individuals has a chance to be looking for a new job by season’s end.
Neal Brown
Record at West Virginia: 22-25 (14-21 Big 12)
Postseason Results: 2020 Liberty Bowl Win, 2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl Loss
Average Recruiting Ranking: 41st (via 247 Sports)
Current Contract: Through 2026, buyout of $16.7 million in 2023
Why: Neal Brown arrived from Troy with plenty of excitement behind him. After a stellar four years where he posted a 35-16 record with the Trojans, Brown took over for the departed Dana Holgorsen, who had abruptly left for Houston.
After a 5-7 campaign in 2019, Brown surprised many by leading the Mountaineers to a 6-4 record during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He was signed to a two-year extension right after that, with the administration believing that the program was fully on the right track.
The train ran off the rails in 2021. In a year in which they were supposed to build off a positive 2020 campaign, the ‘Eers stumbled to a 6-7 record. Then, Brown followed that up with a lackluster 2022 season in which his team finished 5-7, missing a bowl game for the second time in four seasons.
West Virginia has a proud fan base, and although it does not have a history of competing for national titles, the administration and program will not accept being one of the bottom-feeders of the Big 12. This is a program that has been incredibly close to competing at a national level, but it has always seemed just a couple of steps away.
In these past four seasons, however, the Mountaineers have been many steps away. In his first three seasons, Brown’s offenses never ranked above 82nd in the country in points per game. Struggles at quarterback and with establishing a ground game caused the team to rely on a scrappy defense to win games. Brown came in as a guy that had led some explosive offenses at Troy, and he was expected to continue that in Morgantown.
In 2022, the script flipped. The Mountaineers averaged 30.8 points per game…but gave up 32.9. The identity shift did little to change the team’s final record.
With question marks across the depth chart, including at quarterback, Brown has a tall order in front of him in 2023. West Virginia will likely be picked toward the bottom of the Big 12 next season, and an opening stretch of at Penn State, vs. Duquesne, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Texas Tech and at TCU is brutal for a coach that is in desperate need of some wins to hold off the hounds.
Prediction: Fired after a loss to TCU (Week 5)
Tom Allen
Record at Indiana: 30-40 (17-35 in Big Ten)
Postseason Results: 2019 Gator Bowl Loss, 2020 Outback Bowl Loss
Average Recruiting Ranking: 57th (via 247 Sports)
Current Contract: Through 2026, buyout of $20.8 million in 2023
Why: Indiana is one of the toughest places to win in the country. For starters, the program had not won more than seven games since 1993 before Allen arrived. In addition, the Hoosiers compete in arguably the top division in the sport, with Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State competing on a national level year-in and year-out in the Big Ten East.
Allen overcame that lack of history and high-end competition during his early years in Bloomington. He improved recruiting, established a culture, and slowly but surely built Indiana into a program that could challenge nearly every team in the Big Ten.
His tenure peaked in 2020. Following a promising 8-5 campaign in 2019, Allen and co. shocked the nation by finishing with a 6-2 record during the ‘20 season, taking No. 2 Ohio State to the wire in a 42-35 loss. The Hoosiers ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP poll at one point and also took down Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin in one of the program’s most successful seasons ever.
Then, right when everything seemed to be coming together, it all fell apart. With star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returning, the Hoosiers figured to be a dark horse in the Big Ten in 2021. Instead, Penix Jr. dealt with injuries and inconsistencies throughout the season, and Indiana managed to only beat Idaho and Western Kentucky en route to a 2-10 record.
With Connor Bazelak transferring from Missouri to replace the departed Penix Jr. in 2022, things did not go much better. After starting 3-0, Allen’s team won only one game the rest of the season.
There is no denying that Allen has worked wonders at Indiana, and he should forever be revered for the job he did to turn the program around when many could not. However, this looks like a program that hit its peak and is now returning to the cellar of the Big Ten East. With how Maryland and Michigan State have moved ahead of Indiana in recent years, and with what Greg Schiano is building at Rutgers, it appears that Allen’s Hoosiers are sliding back to last place in the division.
With where they were in 2020, that is cause to begin looking at new coaching options.
Prediction: Fired after 4-8 season
Eliah Drinkwitz
Record at Missouri: 17-19 (11-15 in SEC)
Postseason Results: 2020 Music City Bowl Canceled, 2021 Armed Forces Bowl Loss, 2022 Gasparilla Bowl Loss
Average Recruiting Ranking: 30th (via 247 Sports)
Current Contract: Through 2027, $20.4 million buyout in 2023
Why: Missouri opted to hire a man with only one year of head coaching experience to take over the program prior to the 2020 season. Coming off a 12-1 season at Appalachian State after taking over for the departed Scott Satterfield, Drinkwitz took over a program looking to rekindle its success from its early years in the SEC.
In 2020, Drinkwitz’s Tigers became one of the surprise teams of the year. They took down defending national champion LSU in the third week of the season, and they finished with a 5-5 record against an all-SEC schedule. While the Music City Bowl against Iowa was canceled, Missouri firmly believed that it had a foundation that could be built upon.
The ‘21 and ‘22 seasons progressed in eerily similar ways. After starting out 3-4 in 2021 and being absolutely torched by every offense they faced, the Tigers rallied to make a bowl game with late wins over Florida and South Carolina.
Like clockwork, Missouri started out 2-4 in 2022 before winning four of its last seven games, scrapping its way into a bowl game.
However, the fact remains: Drinkwitz has yet to finish with a winning record at Mizzou.
There is room for optimism within the program due to the victories Drinkwitz has picked up on the recruiting trail, but there are also plenty of question marks. The quarterback spot has been an issue, and it remains to be seen if Brady Cook—the starter in ‘22—-will remain QB1, or if Miami transfer Jake Garcia or former four-star recruit Sam Horn can take over the reins.
Offensive line play has been average at best since Drinkwitz arrived in Columbia, and the team as a whole has struggled to win close games, with seven losses coming by single digits in the past two seasons.
This is a make-or-break season for Drinkwitz at Mizzou. Another 6-6 finish may not be enough for him to retain his job. After all, he wasn’t hired by current Mizzou athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois, and she has made a firm commitment to building a nationally-competitive athletics department regardless of who is in charge.
7-5 would likely be enough to stick around for another season, but picking out seven wins from a schedule that includes Kansas State, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida is difficult. Like always, swing games against Kentucky, Arkansas and South Carolina will be pivotal in determining how this team’s season is viewed. This time, those three results may be the difference between Drinkwitz staying in Columbia or searching for another gig.
Prediction: Remains head coach after 7-5 season
Honorable Mentions: Dino Babers (Syracuse), Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern), Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
About the author
I grew up a Tennessee fan in Atlanta, and yes it was certainly rough to live amongst so many UGA fans. Oregon has also been a favorite team of mine for as long as I can remember. I currently attend the University of Missouri studying sports journalism. I also cover Mizzou's FB and MBB teams for Rock M Nation.
