Just like how the many powerful dynasties of the Earth’s history used to rise and fall like the tides of the ocean, the elite programs of college football do the same. While it may not happen overnight, there has been a shift in the powers of the college football landscape in recent years.

Georgia has seemingly dethroned Alabama atop the sport, with teams like Ohio State and Michigan operating right behind them. New contenders like Tennessee, USC, LSU and Florida State have emerged, with the likes of Clemson and Oregon having fallen out of the sole spotlight in their respective conferences.

So, let’s hit a reset button and figure out who truly can compete for a national championship in 2023-24. At the end of the day, only a handful of teams have a true shot at winning it all each season, and I’ve divided them up into tiers of likelihood.

Top Tier:

Georgia

2022 Record: 15-0

Key Returners: TE Brock Bowers, WR Ladd McConkey, DE Mykel Williams

Toughest Games: @ Tennessee (Nov. 18), @ Auburn (Sept. 30)

Why: I mean, they’ve won two national titles in a row. What more do you want?

The Georgia Bulldogs are the undisputed top dogs of college football right now, and Kirby Smart appears to have this program on the verge of reaching dynasty levels if it can maintain this level of play. With the recruiting classes that are rolling in and a key core of returners, there is no reason that this team should not be in the top four yet again this season. 

Of course, the biggest question mark lies at quarterback following the departure of longtime starter Stetson Bennett. The battle between junior Carson Beck, redshirt sophomore Brock Vandagriff and redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton may be the most impactful national offseason storyline to follow.

I like Georgia to again make the SEC title game and playoff, but this time around, Alabama and Ohio State will claim their vengeance.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 3

Alabama

2022 Record: 11-2

Key Returners: WR Jermaine Burton, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, LB Deontae Lawson

Toughest Games: vs. Texas (Sept. 9), @ Texas A&M (Oct. 7)

Why: The ego of the most successful program in college football history has taken a direct hit in recent seasons. That seems odd to say when the Crimson Tide won a national title just three years ago, but when the team that has won the past two national championships is in your own conference AND they beat you in one of those title games, then there’s cause for concern.

Nick Saban and Co. are hearing all of the noise of this being the end of the Alabama dynasty, and they will almost certainly use it as fuel to the fire in 2023. Much like Georgia, Alabama’s only true question mark lies at the quarterback spot. Redshirt sophomore Jalen Milroe played sparingly last season but showed flashes of his great athletic ability, while former five-star recruit and redshirt freshman Ty Simpson has plenty of upside. The rest of the roster will be chock full of future NFL draft picks yet again, meaning that this team will be equipped to go on another title run with the right quarterback at the helm. Of course, having a seven-time national champion as your head coach also helps.

The Tide will dethrone Georgia in the SEC, but they will not be able to navigate past Ohio State in the championship bout.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 2

Ohio State

2022 Record: 11-2

Key Returners: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., RB TreVeyon Henderson, LB Tommy Eichenberg

Toughest Games: @ Notre Dame (Sept. 23), @ Michigan (Nov. 25)

Why: Much like Alabama, Ohio State has been overshadowed by another program within its own conference in recent years…to the immense dismay of its fan base. The Team Up North has taken control of the Big Ten, winning the conference in each of the past two seasons in dominant fashion. Ryan Day is feeling a lot of pressure at the moment, as he has had multiple teams that are talented enough to win it all instead falter at the end of the season.

The Buckeyes have not won a national championship since 2014, which by their standards is a long time ago. The first step to reclaiming their spot on top of the college football world will be to defeat Michigan, which would have to happen in Ann Arbor this season. After that, the Buckeyes will need to work through their College Football Playoff woes, as they are 3-4 in the playoff since its inception.

In order to do so, the Buckeyes will have to find, get this, a quarterback. Yes, just like Alabama and Georgia, OSU has a quarterback competition full of talented players who have bided their time behind past stars. Kyle McCord is in his third season with the Buckeyes and was a quality backup to C.J. Stroud when he was in Columbus. The former Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year has a connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. that goes back to their high school days, but he has yet to separate himself from Devin Brown, a former four-star recruit who is entering his second season with the Buckeyes. The race has been tight throughout the spring, and a starter will likely not be named until the fall. Still, with the skill position talent that this team has and the production that Day has gotten out of the quarterback position in the past, OSU will be right in the mix at the end of the season.

In my eyes, the Buckeyes are overdue for a title run, and it will come just when people least expect it.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 1

Michigan

2022 Record: 13-1

Key Returners: RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, LB Junior Colson

Toughest Games: @ Penn State (Nov. 11), vs. Ohio State (Nov. 25)

Why: After years of struggling to break into this upper tier, Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines have solidified themselves as one of college football’s elite with two straight conference titles and playoff appearances.

Now, the next step will be figuring out how to consistently hold off Ohio State in the Big Ten while also finding a way to win a game in the playoff. Michigan disappointed in both of its semifinal appearances the past two seasons, leaving a sour taste in the mouths of the Wolverine faithful despite successful campaigns. 

Unlike the other three teams in this category, Michigan has a solidified returner at quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. The former five-star recruit was a prolific performer down the stretch of the season and brought the UM offense to new heights with his running ability and accuracy with the ball. He can certainly polish his game in some regards, but with All-American Blake Corum returning alongside Donovan Edwards in the backfield and a host of receivers coming back as well, this Michigan offense should be improved in 2023.

The bigger wild card for this team will be on defense. The Wolverines were exposed on that side of the ball in their season-ending loss to TCU, and they lost two of their top defensive linemen in Mike Morris and Mazi Smith as well as star cornerback DJ Turner. The linebacking core returns largely intact, but Harbaugh will have to find some new stars on the defensive side.

Frankly, I feel as if Michigan missed out on two golden opportunities these past two seasons and will fall back behind the Buckeyes this season.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 6

Challengers:

Tennessee

2022 Record: 11-2

Key Returners: QB Joe Milton, DE Tyler Baron, RB Jabari Small

Toughest Games: @ Alabama (Oct. 21), vs. Georgia (Nov. 18)

Why: Josh Heupel has managed to awaken the sleeping giant that is the Tennessee football program, and it only took him two short years to bring it back to national prominence. 

Heupel’s up-tempo, spread offense took the SEC by storm last season, allowing quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt to produce some mind-boggling numbers. That duo, along with second-leading receiver Cedric Tillman, are now gone, but the UT offensive attack shouldn’t miss a beat. Former Michigan quarterback Joe Milton bided his time behind Hooker and has the arm talent to be successful in the big-play offense that the Vols run. If he can focus on his accuracy and decision-making this offseason, Milton should pick up right where Hooker left off.

Bru McCoy, Ramel Keyton and Squirrel White all contributed in big ways at different points of the season in 2022, and that trio should prevent there from being any form of major drop-off out wide. And, with the backfield duo of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright returning, the offense should be incredibly balanced. The pair ran for over 1,500 combined yards last season.

Losing Byron Young on the defensive side hurts, but Tennessee was merely an average team on that side of the ball last season anyway. The hope is that, with a year of experience under the unit’s belt and the return of leading tackler Aaron Beasley and mainstays Jaylen McCollough and Tyler Baron, the defense will be much improved in 2023.

Still, as a whole, I see the Vols taking a slight step back this season, especially with a schedule that includes Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 12

Penn State

2022 Record: 11-2

Key Returners: RB Nick Singleton, RB Kaytron Allen, QB Drew Allar

Toughest Games: @ Ohio State (Oct. 21), vs. Michigan (Nov. 11)

Why: There’s a lot of upside to this 2023 Penn State football team. After finishing last season on a five-game winning streak and claiming a Rose Bowl trophy, the Nittany Lions return the majority of their production.

This team’s potential starts with perhaps the nation’s best running back duo in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They may have both been freshmen last season, but neither of them looked the part. Singleton and Allen ran through and around Big Ten defenses, combining for over 1,800 yards and becoming the focal point of the PSU offense. 

That bodes well for sophomore quarterback Drew Allar. The former five-star recruit is expected to take over for the departed Sean Clifford and already showed flashes of brilliance in limited action last season. He’s the wild card for this team, but if he can even just be above average, this offense will be dangerous.

James Franklin’s staff consistently fields a top-tier defense, and this season should be no different despite the losses of Joey Porter Jr. and PJ Mustipher. Unfortunately, PSU will be just a step behind Michigan and Ohio State yet again, but it will put up strong fights in each of its matchups.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 8

Florida State

2022 Record: 10-3

Key Returners: QB Jordan Travis, WR Johnny Wilson, DE Jared Verse

Toughest Games: vs. LSU (Sept. 3 in Orlando), @ Clemson (Sept. 23)

Why: The Florida State hype train has been getting closer for quite some time, and it appears to have finally arrived in Tallahassee. The Noles appear to be primed for a run at the ACC title with the return of their two leaders on each side of the ball.

Jordan Travis opted to return at quarterback after a breakout season, and he is popping up on plenty of early Heisman lists. On the flip side, Jared Verse surprised everyone after the season by spurning the NFL draft as a possible first-round pick after recording 17 tackles for loss and nine sacks last season. That duo leads the way, but Travis will have an embarrassment of riches to throw to, led by Johnny Wilson. The rest of the defense returns largely intact as well.

This has been the season that Mike Norvell has been building toward at FSU, but now it is about delivering results. The Seminoles are more than capable of running the table in the ACC, but per usual, it will come down to a showdown with Clemson to determine who will have a shot at the CFP. At the end of the day, I see Florida State being just on the outside looking in despite claiming the conference crown.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 5

USC

2022 Record: 11-3

Key Returners: QB Caleb Williams, WR Mario Williams, LB Eric Gentry

Toughest Games: @ Notre Dame (Oct. 14), @ Oregon (Nov. 11)

Why: Defending Heisman Trophy winner? Check. Two of the sport’s best offensive minds? Check. A host of high-impact transfers? Check.

There is a lot to like about this 2023 USC squad, and the Trojans will be looking to avenge a lackluster end to the previous season. Caleb Williams is back and appears to be a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That being said, he has yet to play in a playoff game in his collegiate career. 

Luckily for him, this USC team is more than capable of getting him there. The offense could somehow get better despite the losses of Jordan Addison and Travis Dye. Lincoln Riley filled those voids with highly-touted transfers Dorian Singer (Arizona) and MarShawn Lloyd (South Carolina), and returning receivers Brenden Rice and Mario Williams and running back Austin Jones will complete a deep and talented group of skill position players.

The wild card for this team will yet again be defense. Riley pulled another star Arizona player, this time cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace, to LA in order to fix up some struggles on the back end. Tackling was also a major issue last season, so it remains to be seen if the Trojans can fix that over the offseason. Regardless, the offensive firepower is there to get through the schedule with only one loss and sneak into the playoff.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 4

Dark Horses:

Washington

2022 Record: 11-2

Key Returners: QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Jalen McMillan, SAF Asa Turner

Toughest Games: vs. Oregon (Oct. 14), @ USC (Nov. 4)

Why: One could argue that Kalen DeBoer put forth the best first-year coaching job we saw in 2022. The former Fresno State head man brought his high-flying offensive attack to Seattle, and he turned Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. into a Heisman contender in just one season. The returning receiver duo of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan has great chemistry with Penix, and both are poised for big seasons yet again. And, with the bulk of an already solid defense returning, the sky appears to be the limit for the Huskies in 2023.

The main wild card will be finding a running game to balance the offense. Wayne Taulapapa led the team with 887 yards on the ground but has graduated, leaving Mississippi State transfer Dillon Johnson or junior Cameron Davis to pick up the slack.

The schedule is fairly unforgiving, with a road trip to East Lansing also popping up early in the season. However, with how strong the Pac-12 appears to be on paper in 2023, getting through the year with one loss may be enough to make the playoff. Between UW, USC, and Oregon, one of them will have a shot at a playoff spot.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 8

Clemson

2022 Record: 11-3

Key Returners: QB Cade Klubnik, RB Will Shipley, SAF Andrew Mukuba

Toughest Games: @ NC State (Oct. 28), vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 4)

Why: The mighty have certainly fallen in Clemson, S.C., but the Tigers appear to be on their way back up. After claiming two national titles in three years, Clemson struggled mightily in 2021 and was “good, not great” in 2022. Fans are beginning to get tired of some of Dabo Swinney’s antics and unwillingness to adapt to the transfer portal and NIL, and some see the Clemson program as falling behind the rest of college football’s elite.

However, when it comes down to it, the Tigers still have the talent and coaching to make another championship run. Everything starts with sophomore Cade Klubnik, who was heralded as a savior of Clemson football coming out of high school. Klubnik took over the quarterback job late in the season, and he showed his potential in solid outings against North Carolina and Tennessee to end the year. With a full offseason as the starter, Klubnik should be a much more polished player, and many have tabbed him as a Heisman dark horse.

The best thing for a young quarterback to have is a running game that he can rely on. With Will Shipley, Klubnik has one of the most productive and physical running backs in the country to hand the ball off to. Clemson needs to retool on the defensive side and find new star targets out wide, but Dabo’s group has rarely struggled in those areas.

With Florida State emerging as a strong contender in the ACC, Clemson’s window of dominance in the conference appears to be coming to an end. Still, the Tigers have a team that is more than capable of running the table and making the playoff, and there is plenty of motivation to do so following two “down” years.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 9

LSU

2022 Record: 10-4

Key Returners: QB Jayden Daniels, LB Harold Perkins Jr., WR Malik Nabers

Toughest Games: vs. Florida State (Sept. 3 in Orlando), @ Alabama (Nov. 4)

Why: Alongside DeBoer in that competition for best year one coach is Brian Kelly. After a rocky start, Kelly had his Tigers playing like one of the best teams in the nation by season’s end, claiming wins over Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Purdue. 

Jayden Daniels returns at quarterback after he seemingly carried this team on his back at times. He led the team in both passing and rushing while throwing 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and his heroics in the Alabama game were something to behold. He’s another Heisman contender that plenty of people are talking about, and he figures to be even more comfortable in his second season in Baton Rouge. His favorite target, 1,000-yard receiver Malik Nabers, is back, as is the majority of the running back room.

The defense has a bit more retooling to do, but having a potential All-American in linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. does help the cause. LSU will have to travel to Tuscaloosa this season and will take on Florida State in Orlando to open the campaign. The schedule is never easy, but Kelly managed to work some magic with it last season.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 10

Oregon

2022 Record: 10-3

Key Returners: QB Bo Nix, RB Bucky Irving, DE Brandon Dorlus

Toughest Games: @ Texas Tech (Sept. 9), @ Washington (Oct. 14)

Why: Despite being one of the strongest teams in the Pac-12 every season since 2018, Oregon has not won a true Pac-12 title since 2019 (2020 was just odd in every way for this conference). Utah became a thorn in the Ducks’ side in recent years, and now the likes of Washington and USC are right in the mix as well.

In order to reclaim their position atop the conference, the Ducks will need another strong season from star quarterback Bo Nix, who found new life after transferring from Auburn. While the offensive line loses some key pieces, the rest of the offense returns largely intact. Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington were strong runners a season ago and should form a scary duo in the backfield, and Troy Franklin leads a promising group of receivers, which was bolstered by the addition of five-star recruit Jurrion Dickey. The loss of offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham to ASU stings, but new OC Will Stein has received rave reviews.

The losses of Christian Gonzalez, Noah Sewell and Bennett Williams hurts from both a production and leadership standpoint on the defensive side, but there is enough returning talent and experience for this defense to avoid too much of a step back.

More so than anything else, the Ducks just need to find a way to navigate the Pac-12 schedule successfully. Seemingly every year that Oregon has a chance to make the playoff, it suffers one or two ugly late-season losses that derail the entire season. That can’t happen again, and with a tougher schedule in 2023, it will be difficult to avoid some pitfalls.

Projected Final Ranking: No. 11