The Keg of Nails returns this weekend in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl, as both teams will meet for the first time since 2013. The Bearcats and Cardinals will ship up to Boston hoping to secure a win to finish off a rollercoaster of a season.

How Cincinnati Got Here:

Cincinnati was staring down a third straight AAC title game appearance, until the team struggled against Tulane in its final regular season game. The Bearcats had a whirlwind of a season, losing to Arkansas in their opening game and ultimately falling to UCF and Tulane late in the season. The Tulane loss was the beginning of a domino effect. Head coach Luke Fickell, the winningest coach in Cincinnati history, took the job at Wisconsin just a few weeks after losing to Tulane. The Bearcats had a great team, filled with a lot of NFL talent after losing nine players to the draft last season. Fickell felt like there were bigger opportunities elsewhere, which left Cincinnati to fill a void just weeks before a bowl game against Louisville. Rumors were that Deion Sanders was in the running, but Cincinnati settled with Louisville’s HC Scott Satterfield shortly after Sanders took the Colorado job. Satterfield has decided to avoid coaching the game, due to his heavy connection with Louisville. Interim HC Kerry Coombs will step in, looking to bring Cincinnati a win against a very motivated Louisville team.

How Louisville Got Here:

The Cardinals finished their season 7-5, with big wins over Wake Forest and NC State. Led by QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville stands at 76th in the country for points per game (27.2). Louisville was very boom or bust this year, sometimes dropping 35+ points with ease. On the other hand, some games the Cardinals struggled to barely put up 20 points. Interim HC Deion Branch will lead the Cardinals against Cincinnati. This Louisville team was stunned by Satterfield’s departure, especially with him going to a team it plays in a bowl game. Louisville recently hired Purdue HC Jeff Brohm to take over the program, but Brohm will not coach in the bowl game. I expect Louisville to be extra motivated for this bowl game. The Cardinals’ season as a whole has been a rollercoaster, but their former coach leaving should be plenty of motivation for the Cardinals to fight in this one. 

Cincinnati Keys to the Game:

Several key players will be out for the Bearcats and will head to the NFL draft, meaning other players will have to step up in a big way. Tight end Josh Whyle, wide receiver Tyler Scott, tight end Leonard Taylor, and wide receiver Tre Tucker will all be skipping the Fenway Bowl. Several Cincinnati defensive backs will also be out after transferring. With the offense extremely limited, star LB Ivan Pace Jr. and the Cincinnati defense will have to step up. The Bearcats cannot find themselves in a shootout, so the defense is going to have to make plays. It is going to be a next man up mentality led by Coombs the whole game. Cincinnati is going to have to rally together around the remaining leaders in order to stop Louisville. 

Louisville Keys to the Game:

Star QB Malik Cunningham recently decided to leave for the NFL draft, meaning junior QB Brock Domann will have to rise to the occasion for the Cardinals offense. Poor quarterback play will hurt this team tremendously, especially with top receiver Tyler Hudson opting for the NFL draft. This offense relies heavily on its QB, and I expect Branch to put Domann in good situations to succeed throughout the game. The secondary is going to be key for the Cardinals in this game as well. The unit has lost a few starters to the transfer portal, but it should handle business with Cincinnati losing almost all of its weapons on offense. If the Cardinals can make Cincinnati one-dimensional, they should run away with this game.

Players To Watch:

Cincinnati LB Ivan Pace Jr. — Pace, arguably the best linebacker in the country, is surprisingly playing in the Fenway Bowl. Pace wants to finish his college career with a win, and I expect him to cause chaos. With Louisville’s limited backfield, Pace will be a real game-wrecker. 

Louisville WR Jaelin Carter — The Cardinals’ top receiver, Tyler Hudson, recently declared for the NFL draft. This leaves senior Jaelin Carter to step into the WR1 spot. Carter only has three receptions on the year, but he will have to step up as reliable receiver for Domann. Look out for Carter to capitalize on a weak Cincinnati secondary.

Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan — Former Syracuse RB Jawhar Jordan will find himself as a solidified starter in Louisville’s backfield this weekend. Former Louisville RB Tiyon Evans recently declared for the NFL draft. Evans and Jordan split the backfield all season, with Evans leading the running back room with six TDs. Jordan has proved to be a very good runner, leading the team with 700 rushing yards, and he will look to stack more touchdowns. Evans’ departure has opened up a great opportunity for Jordan and I expect him to see a lot of production.

Score Prediction:

I don’t see Cincinnati’s offense being able to score a ton of points with its star players being out. Louisville has more weapons with fewer players leaving for the portal or the draft. It is going to be a sloppy game, especially with new coaching staffs, but I think Louisville is able to edge this one out with simply more experienced players. Louisville 27, Cincinnati 20.