The Baylor Bears are looking to capture their seventh bowl win in the past 12 years. It’s not going to be easy though, as the Air Force Falcons hold the best rushing attack in the country. Look for this primetime matchup to be a battle in the trenches. 

How Baylor Got Here:

The Bears finished their season 6-6, including a heartbreaking one-point loss at home to No. 3 TCU. Baylor has not struggled to put up points, mostly due to its run game being one of the best in the Big 12. Freshman RB Richard Reese, who won Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, has become a huge piece in this Baylor offense. Former starting QB Gerry Bohanon transferred from Baylor last offseason, which finally left sophomore QB Blake Shapen with a full season. Shapen had an up and down season, but it was ultimately the Baylor defense that resulted in the team having a mediocre season. The Bears defense is coming into this game allowing 370.3 yards per game, including 137.6 on the ground. Baylor will have to play well and be disciplined on both sides of the ball in order to end its season on a high note. 

How Air Force Got Here:

Air Force entered the 2022 season as one of the three main favorites to win the Mountain West, but fell short thanks to a trio of one-score losses to division opponents. Despite those tough losses in conference play, there are plenty of things for the Falcons faithful to enjoy from this season, and they would love to add a bowl win over a sturdy program to that collection. Fullback Brad Roberts capped one of the great careers in modern service academy history with his second consecutive season surpassing 1,300 rush yards. And most importantly, Troy Calhoun’s outfit captured the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for the first time since 2016.

Baylor Keys To The Game:

Obviously, the biggest key to this game will be stopping the Falcons’ rushing attack. They will be in multiple packages and will stick to what they have done all season. Baylor LBs Dillon Doyle and Matt Jones will have to fill gaps and be all over the field. Baylor will also need to rotate players consistently on defense in order to keep fresh bodies on the field. A tired defense will lead to big plays and huge gains for an Air Force that relies so heavily on its rushing attack. The key for the Bears offense will be to stay balanced and not become one-dimensional. Air Force is allowing just 13.3 points per game (tied for third-fewest in the country) coming into this matchup. If the Bears keep Air Force on its toes and guessing, the Bears will be able to execute the play-action game effectively and come up with a good amount of points. 

Air Force Keys to the Game:

 The Falcons have a strong defense – they finished 9th in SP+ on that side of the ball – but the story of this game will be determined by Air Force’s ability to run the triple option against Baylor’s defense. A key factor will be Baylor’s preparation; the Bears canned defensive coordinator Ron Roberts after the regular season, and head coach Dave Aranda will be calling plays Thursday night. Aranda has had a fantastic career on the headset, but will he have been stretched thin with his other responsibilities during portal and recruiting season? Baylor nose tackle Siaki Ika is a monster of a man at 6-foot-4 and 358 pounds, and the First Team All-Big 12 performer could control the game single-handedly by limiting Roberts in the A-gap attacks.

Players To Watch:

Baylor WR Monaray Baldwin — Last year, then-freshman wideout Monaray Baldwin was used in a variety of ways. He had a big-time game in the Sugar Bowl vs. Ole Miss, which included a 48-yard jet sweep for a touchdown. This year however, Baldwin has evolved into the Bears’ number one target. He leads the team in yards and touchdowns heading into this game. I expect him to be a player Air Force will look to stop.

Baylor S Al Walcott — Senior safety Al Walcott also had himself a game last bowl season. Walcott took an interception to the house for 96 yards, which was the Bears’ opening TD. This season, Walcott has improved tremendously. He is currently tied for the most tackles on the team and is one of the biggest leaders on defense. Walcott’s ability to make consistent tackles will be huge for the Bears against this Air Force run game. Look for him to be a game changer throughout the game. 

Air Force FB Brad Roberts — Roberts will look to end his historic career with a big game and a bowl win. His hard-nosed up-the-gut style is crucial to the Air Force attack as the flexbone offense became even more reliant on the fullback run this season. New NCAA rules about how teams can block on the perimeter severely hampered the effectiveness of the slotback game for all three FBS service academies. Fullbacks starred at all three academies, and Roberts stood above the rest. 

Score Predictions: 

Kyler: The Falcons’ offensive style will be too much for the Bears in this matchup. Baylor will be forced to try to outscore Air Force, and I think that will cause some mistakes down the stretch. Air Force 28, Baylor 24.

Dan: I see the Falcons defense and rushing attack winning out. Air Force 20, Baylor 17.