Welcome to part three in a series examining 2022 college football win total over/under bets. Our crack team will take a handful of different approaches to create a multi-faceted outlook designed to get you to the window. 

Our decisions will be guided with an analytics approach, as we lean heavily on Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ projections. We will also cast a discerning eye on each team’s schedules, carefully combing through for the gimme wins, the trap games, and the toss-ups that will determine each team’s fate. In addition, we have studied up on our scouting reports, position battles, coaching changes, and other offseason upheaval to find this year’s sleepers and busts. And our final measure is perhaps the most important: just vibes, baby.

We will look at one Power Five conference per day, examining each team’s win total spread. Some picks we will make in high confidence, and others will be “stay aways.” Our lines are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and of course are subject to change.

If you are on board to follow the advice of a college football blogger, and give the sportsbooks an interest-free loan for the next six months, then let’s go win some money! I fully understand if you are not going to play along, so I’ll try to make the journey as entertaining as possible for you. The real bets we win are the friends we make along the way.

We return to the series with a look at flyover football — the Big 12.

Baylor Bears – Over/Under 8 wins. The Bears will feature some of the best line play in the conference on both sides of the ball. That will make the tasks of breaking in new starting QB Blake Shapen and replacing entire swaths of skill position and perimeter players easier. The schedule does them no favors, as they have trips to Provo, Norman, and Austin on the docket. While Baylor could be at the top of the league again, I am averse to buying high, and too many unknowns in the lineup lead me to stay away.

Iowa State Cyclones – Over/Under 6.5 wins. Cyclones legends Brock Purdy and Breece Hall are off to the NFL, and this looks like a rebuilding year in Ames. If you believe Matt Campbell’s coaching ability gives them an edge in the coin flip middle class of the conference, feel free to put money down on the over. I’m not sold and will stay away.

Kansas Jayhawks – Over/Under 2 wins. 

Fact 1: I attended the University of Missouri. 

Fact 2: Lance Leipold is entering only the second year — really, year 1.5 — of one of the toughest Power Five rebuilds in recent memory, so expectations are still very low.

Opinion 1: QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal will be an exciting combo this year, and they will give Kansas an edge in close games.

Opinion 2: I see two non-conference wins on the schedule, which means an improving program just needs to steal one more win (at WVU? Hosting TCU or ISU?) to hit the over.

Fact 3: Typing all this out pains me greatly, but winning money heals this wound. Rock Chalk.

Kansas State Wildcats – Over/Under 6.5 wins. Kansas State is getting a lot of sleeper love from the college football pundit class, and there is a lot to like in the Little Apple. Chris Klieman is an excellent ball coach, and running back Deuce Vaughn is one of the best players in the country. Ultimately, I’ll recommend that you stay away, because this level of the Big 12 seems to just be a series of coin flip results, and do you really want to commit money to riding with Adrian Martinez?

Oklahoma Sooners – Over/Under 9.5 wins. The demise of the Oklahoma Sooners has been greatly exaggerated. I believe last year’s disappointing results can be quickly turned around with a new culture under Brent Venables, and he will also have an instant schematic improvement on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, the names will be different but the prolific scoring will remain in place. Obviously, Red River is a neutral site game, but the other two contenders in the league both visit Norman. The Sooners will likely be favored in every single game. Take the over because this team is closer to the College Football Playoff than it is to going under 9.5 wins. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys – Over/Under 9 wins. As detailed in the Baylor section, I don’t love taking an over when buying high. Oklahoma State has Spencer Sanders – meh – as well as a mean, nasty, and chiseled defensive line. However, the Cowboys have to replace a ton of production elsewhere in the lineup. Jim Knowles, the architect of last season’s excellent defense, is off to Ohio State, although his replacement Derek Mason knows a thing or ten about coordinating strong defenses. I hate buying high and have a hard time seeing double-digit wins again. I’ll take the under. 

TCU Horned Frogs – Over/Under 6 wins. As mentioned, this is squarely in the coin flip part of the conference. If you have faith in Sonny Dykes installing his high-octane offense, feel free to take the over. Veteran QB Max Duggan could be a breakout star this year, and the Horned Frogs should sweep their non-conference games. The path is there to a solid first year. I won’t be joining you on the ride, however, as I will stay away. 

Texas Longhorns – Over/Under 9.5 wins. I am a believer in Texas. I was very interested to see this number and to take the over, but 9.5 is a devilish number from Vegas and ultimately I will stay away. Despite not getting any money down, I am bullish on the Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers era. Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy will be elite weapons. The young talent on the lines will need a bit more seasoning, which is why I’m circling 2023 as the year Texas is finally back. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders – Over/Under 4.5 wins. The Red Raiders face Houston and NC State in the non-conference slate, a brutal draw of two teams that should live in the top 25 all season. New head coach Joey McGuire is a very intriguing hire, and one that could pay dividends, but his role is program-building and long-term foundational development, not a quick-fix schematic improvement. Even if Tech is pointed in the right direction, it might not be noticeable in the 2022 win column. I would lean under because of the tough breaks of the schedule, but I don’t feel strongly about it and would stay away. 

West Virginia Mountaineers – Over/Under 5 wins. While the Kansas Jayhawks still reside in the basement of the Big 12, the Mountaineers might join them this season. A three-win year in Lawrence will be progress; in Morgantown, that will mean several new job listings. Neal Brown brings in offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and transfer QB JT Daniels to try to right this ship. The vibes are not great around the program right now, and the defense could be leaky enough that even a good offense loses a bunch of shootouts. (I’m not even sold on the good offense part). Defensive lineman Dante Stills might be the best defender in the league, but the depth chart thins out quickly after that. I will take the under, and I predict this job opens up at the end of the season.

SUMMARY

Over: Oklahoma 9.5, Kansas 2

Under: Oklahoma State 9, West Virginia 5

Stay Away: Texas 9.5, Baylor 8, Iowa St 6.5, Kansas State 6.5, TCU 6, Texas Tech 4.5

Coming Tuesday: Pac 12