Well that was a week of tough losses. Colorado missed the cover by one point, Texas repeatedly shot itself in the foot, and Washington State put up its worst performance of the year against a tough UCLA defense. With the lock hitting, it’s still a near positive week, only losing 0.3 units, but still unfortunate. This year has yet to allow a week to go by without an electric game, and this week is no different. The potential game of the year is on the slate, and I have a bet lined up for it, so let’s make some money.

UCLA at Oregon State: Under 54.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

This line is just a bit too high for the style of game that I expect to be on display here. Oregon State is a classic smash mouth team that is going to run the ball and play tough physical defense. UCLA’s defense has been fantastic for the first half of the season and is allowing just 64.6 yards per game on the ground — good for second best in the FBS. I think this should be a low-scoring matchup, and I thought this number would be in the high 40s. To get it at 54.5 with how erratic Dante Moore has been, and how good both defenses have been, I think this is fantastic value.

Fresno State at Utah State: Fresno State -4.5 — 1.1u to 1u

This was a surprising line to see, and mostly an overreaction to last week in my opinion. Yes the Bulldogs are coming off of a tough loss to Wyoming, but Wyoming just might be a good football team. While Utah State has been good to start the year, the Aggies have lost all three games against teams near or at the level of Fresno State. Fresno State is a fringe ranked team in my opinion; the Bulldogs have a fantastic defense, and Mikey Keene has been stellar so far. Meanwhile, the Aggies defense has leaked points, and I expect it to again here. I can’t envision a scenario where this game is within a touchdown, and either the wheels completely fall off of the Bulldogs’ train, or they get it back on the tracks.

Miami at North Carolina: North Carolina -3.5 — 1.1u to 1u

This hurts me to do, as I love the Hurricanes and am desperately rooting for Tyler Van Dyke to have a great season. However, I think that this North Carolina team is really good, and getting Devontez Walker back is massive for the offense. Miami has yet to really play anybody this year, and while you can’t fault a team for its schedule, you can fault it for its absolutely atrocious loss last week. Even going beyond the last minute debacle, that game should never have been that close. The Hurricanes have the talent to put Georgia Tech under water and hold it there and they just didn’t. If they play anywhere near the level they did against the Jackets, they will get blown out of the water. The Tar Heels should be three- to four-point favorites on a neutral site, and with this game being at Chapel Hill, I love the value at -3.5.

Oregon at Washington: Oregon +3 — 1.1u to 1u

For most of the ranked games this week, it seems like Vegas made every home team a three-point favorite. That pattern follows here with Washington being a three-point favorite at home, but I don’t know that it should be. I could see this game going either way really, but if one team were able to get a lead, I think the Ducks are the team much more capable of holding it. They have Bucky Irving toting the rock, giving them a heft advantage at running back, and their defense has been the better unit to this point in the season. Is there a scenario where Michael Penix Jr. gets hot and puts up 50? Absolutely, but if both teams play to the standard they have so far, I give Oregon the advantage. Because of that, I like the value getting three points with Bo Nix and the Ducks.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

Georgia Southern at James Madison: JMU -6 — 2.2u to win 2u

This line is just a bit disrespectful in my opinion. The Dukes should be ranked, and it is a bit shocking they aren’t, while Georgia Southern is a mid-tier Sun Belt team. Clay Helton has had the Eagles flying to start the year, but the Dukes are a serious step up in competition. They have been the class of the Sun Belt for the last two seasons, and until someone takes a step up, I see no chance of that changing. The Eagles are coming off of a big win against Coastal Carolina last week, but the Chanticleers haven’t been the team anyone expected coming into the year. This is a good measuring stick game for them, but I think they will fail to meet the mark and that the Dukes will win this one by more than a touchdown.

Last Week: 2-3-0 -2.4u

Yearly: 12-13-0 -2.6u