Ranking Each First-Round Pick in the 2023 NFL Draft By Confidence Level

Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: @TexasFootball on Twitter

I whipped up this idea about eight seconds ago and I’m going to run with it. I’ll be ranking all 31 first-round picks of the 2023 NFL Draft by how confident I am in them succeeding at the next level. This should be cool… right?

1. Bijan Robinson RB — Atlanta Falcons (8th Overall)

The obvious decision is to pick the best running back in the class who just got top 10 draft capital. Bijan Robinson is going to accumulate plenty of touches and feast in the NFL.

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR — Seattle Seahawks (20th Overall)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is such a steal at No. 20. Seattle fans will be thanking the football gods for years to come for allowing him to fall to 20.

3. Will Anderson Jr. EDGE — Houston Texans (3rd Overall)

The game wrecker. Need I say more?

4. Paris Johnson Jr. OT — Arizona Cardinals (6th Overall)

I’ve always been a staunch believer in Paris Johnson Jr. and became an even bigger one tonight. Paris going sixth overall was sick. Hearing that Las Vegas would’ve taken him at seven and Atlanta at eight… That just makes me even more confident in the franchise left tackle.

5. Devon Witherspoon CB — Seattle Seahawks (5th Overall)

Devon Witherspoon is going to thrive in his role next to Tariq Woolen. Seattle got a GOOD one.

6. Jahmyr Gibbs RB — Detroit Lions (12th Overall)

The Lions investing the 12th overall pick into Jahmyr Gibbs should say it all. The fact that this franchise isn’t high on D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery isn’t a major threat to the juiced up Gibbs. Get the offensive weapon his touches and we’ll see plenty of production.

7. Peter Skoronski OL — Tennessee Titans (11th Overall)

Peter Skoronski is a surefire pro, especially if he’s playing guard.

8. Bryce Young QB — Carolina Panthers (1st Overall)

I feel like ranking the QBs on here is really difficult… Carolina please just set Bryce Young up for success. Do everything you can to make sure he’s a star.

9. C.J. Stroud QB — Houston Texans (2nd Overall)

It’d be foolish of me to not just put Bryce and C.J. Stroud back to back.

10. Myles Murphy EDGE — Cincinnati Bengals (28th Overall)

Myles Murphy has the potential to be one of the best players in the entire class. He could end up being one of the real steals of this draft.

11. Jordan Addison WR — Minnesota Vikings (23rd Overall)

If you don’t think Jordan Addison is going to thrive next to Justin Jefferson

12. Deonte Banks CB — New York Giants (24th Overall)

Yeah, Deonte Banks at 24 is an incredible pick for a number of reasons. This was one of my favorite picks of the round… Banks is going to be a very good pro.

13. Christian Gonzalez CB — New England Patriots (17th Overall)

The Patriots messed around and got a superb talent at 17. Christian Gonzalez being available was wild. He’s a radiant player with so many good traits. His physicality might be a question mark but he’s young and developing. I like this pick a lot, and he went to the perfect landing spot too.

14. Broderick Jones OT — Pittsburgh Steelers (14th Overall)

This is a really good landing spot for Broderick Jones.

15. Emmanuel Forbes CB — Washington Commanders (16th Overall)

Emmanuel Forbes brings his ballhawking skills to the nation’s capital. He’s an exciting player and we should be very excited about his future. This CB class is so good. It should be no surprise that I’m confident in all these cornerbacks!

16. Zay Flowers WR — Baltimore Ravens (22nd Overall)

The Ravens’ scheme is a worry, but I think they’ll feed Zay Flowers plenty of touches.

17. Darnell Wright OT — Chicago Bears (10th Overall)

Darnell Wright appears to be a good scheme fit in Chicago and should hold it down at right tackle.

18. Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE — Kansas City Chiefs (31st Overall)

We ended night one with a sneaky good pick from Kansas City. I was prepared to compliment the team that took Felix Anudike-Uzomah on Day 2. Instead, it will be the Chiefs, who get a lot of mileage out of the edge rusher.

19. Dalton Kincaid TE — Buffalo Bills (25th Overall)

Dalton Kincaid’s back injury is a bit of a worry. Here’s to hoping that he’s healthy and that Josh Allen targets the tight end with remarkable ball skills a lot.

20. Jalen Carter DT — Philadelphia Eagles (9th Overall)

I believe that Jalen Carter ended up in the best spot possible. But I still worry about his red flags. I’m extremely cautious here…

21. Nolan Smith EDGE — Philadelphia Eagles (30th Overall)

The Eagles have the opportunity to hit big with the acquisitions of Carter and Nolan Smith. The question is… will they both hit?

22. Anton Harrison OT — Jacksonville Jaguars (27th Overall)

This is going to look really good or really bad early. Anton Harrison will be thrust into an important starting role early.

23. Tyree Wilson EDGE — Las Vegas Raiders (7th Overall)

I could be brainwashed by the stigma of the Raiders franchise, but I hate this fit. Tyree Wilson’s foot is a concern, and the Raiders aren’t exactly the franchise I trust most with a raw prospect who carries a medical concern.

24. Bryan Bresee DT — New Orleans Saints (29th Overall)

If Bryan Bresee is blessed with good health, he’s going to be a really good pro. If I was certain his medicals weren’t a concern, he’d be so much higher on this list. I’m a big fan of his game and the person he is.

25. Calijah Kancey DT — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19th Overall)

An undersized interior defensive lineman but very explosive. Calijah Kancey’s an interesting case and I’m unsure of how he’ll fare.

26. Anthony Richardson QB — Indianapolis Colts (4th Overall)

Is this a fair spot for Anthony Richardson? Boom or bust.

27. Mazi Smith DT — Dallas Cowboys (26th Overall)

Mazi Smith wasn’t one of my favorites in the draft, but Jerry Jones seems to be ecstatic about a top 15 prospect on his board.

28. Jack Campbell LB — Detroit Lions (18th Overall)

I feel like Jack Campbell can be a fine pro but this pick was so bad. Perhaps that’s brainwashing me right now.

29. Quentin Johnston WR — Los Angeles Chargers (21st Overall)

I really dislike this fit. Justin Herbert takes risks and throws a lot of jump balls. Quentin Johnston is a poor contested catcher.

30. Lukas Van Ness EDGE — Green Bay Packers (13th Overall)

Lukas Van Ness at No. 13 was one of my least favorite picks of the first round.

31. Will McDonald IV EDGE — New York Jets (15th Overall)

One of the most perplexing picks of the first round. Will McDonald IV is a stellar athlete, but how well will he perform in the NFL? I’m not confident…

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I am a diehard UCLA fan that has enjoyed (?) mediocrity year after year. My favorite CFB moment was witnessing UCLA comeback from 34 down against Texas A&M. Being at the Rose Bowl for that historic moment is something I’ll never forget. I have written about CFB since I was 14 and my favorite thing to do is give under-the-radar athletes the recognition they deserve. You might know me from @NoContextCFB !