The first wave of transfers is over, and there is another that will take place after the spring. During the initial wave, a slew of high-profile quarterbacks entered the transfer portal and landed at new schools, so let’s give them a confidence rating, which is similar to what my colleague Liam Blutman did with a few quarterbacks that were on the market back in December and before they had made their decisions. Each situation is unique and some will have more to overcome to make work and be successful on the field.

Cade McNamara, Iowa – Confidence Level 3.9/5

I may be more confident than most that this will work. Now, I’m not saying Cade McNamara will light the world on fire at Iowa. Because it’s freaking Iowa (Brian Ferentz jokes aside). However, he’s not Spencer Petras. I think that’s the most important thing about this move. McNamara is a playoff-caliber quarterback, who was good in his one season as the full-time starter during the 2021 season. He’ll be going from one program that relies on running the ball efficiently to another program that does the same. All McNamara has to do is complete a five-yard out on third-and-three and he’ll be a lot more successful than Petras. McNamara just has to keep the chains moving and hit open receivers, which wasn’t the case in Iowa City last season. He gives Iowa a better chance at averaging more than 25 points per game, which will keep Ferentz around for at least another season. Is that a good thing? I don’t know, but I am confident McNamara will work for the Hawkeyes.

DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State – Confidence Level 3.7/5

There were a lot of issues that played into DJ Uiagalelei moving on from Clemson and deciding to move to the West Coast. From the scheme to the lack of elite weapons the Tigers have had in the past to him presumably looking over his shoulder wondering if quarterback of the future Cade Klubnik would him replace as the starter, which he eventually did. DJ jumps to an Oregon State squad that shows a lot of promise and has the chance to be competitive in what’s lining up to be a very competitive conference in the Pac-12. DJ will have an experienced line to throw behind and a budding star in Damien Martinez at running back. The concern for DJ and the Beavers on offense is the talent that the quarterback will be throwing to. Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden are a good starting point, but there’s not a lot of proven experience beyond that. The situation sounds very similar to what it was like at Clemson, so will there really be a difference in DJ’s production? I don’t think there will be a significant change in his numbers, but it will be better than what the Beavers had last season, which makes me pretty confident that this will work.

Hudson Card, Purdue – Confidence Level 3.1/5

Hudson Card was a good get for the Boilermakers in the transfer portal after Aidan O’Connell left for the NFL. Card was going to struggle to find the field at Texas with Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning coming in. There are reasons for Purdue fans to be excited. Card appeared to be improving over the course of last season while Ewers was out with an injury. He enjoyed his best game of the season in a win over West Virginia, where he threw for over 300 yards, tossed three touchdowns and completed over 77% of his passes. Card will get the chance to sling it plenty with new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s spread-style offense. The receiver room isn’t particularly deep for Purdue, but TJ Sheffield and Broc Thompson both return for one more year. The offensive line is the biggest concern for the offense. O’Connell was sacked 22 times last season. Card showed plenty of times that he’s willing to hang in the pocket for an extra second to make the throw. Devin Mockobee was a welcomed surprise at running back and will be another target for Card. First-year head coach Ryan Walters started his tenure with the big pickup of Card. Is it in the cards for Card to be successful for the Boilermakers? It could be, and yes, that was a very bad joke.

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame – Confidence Level 4.3/5

This is a high score for Sam Hartman, but it’s also a reflection of how confident I am that head coach Marcus Freeman will hire the right offensive coordinator to get the most out of Hartman. He’s got a good track record of hires so far in just one season. Hartman was one of the most high-profile quarterbacks who entered the portal and was a big get for the Irish. He left Wake Forest to get away from the slow mesh and be in a more pro-style offense. Hartman is walking in a pretty good situation in South Bend. First, he won’t be running an offense that’s unappealing to NFL draft scouts. He’s going to be behind a much better offensive line, so he won’t end up on his back as much or have to rush throws. There are proven options at running back and talent at tight end. Hartman won’t have an A.T. Perry-type receiver to throw to at the moment, but the Irish have a good mix of experience and youth at receiver. He’ll have to fix some of the turnover issues if he wants to improve his draft stock, and I’m confident he will. Notre Dame was very excited about the potential of its offense before the addition of Hartman. The excitement should be off the charts now.

Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin – Confidence Level 4.1/5

This might be one of the most intriguing quarterback moves of the offseason. Tanner Mordecai moves from an Air Raid offense at SMU to an offense that will be similar under Phil Longo. Luke Fickell has said that the Badgers won’t evolve into an air-it-out type offense and will still adhere to the tradition of Wisconsin football. And when you have the offensive line and a running back like Braelon Allen, I wouldn’t either. Mordecai appears to be the guy and could be a bridge to fellow transfer Nick Evers. Evers will challenge the veteran for the starting job, but Mordecai’s experience gives him the upper hand. The Badgers also brought in several transfer wide receivers, but it still feels like the team is a year away from being in the mix for conference title contention. Mordecai helps close the gap and definitely adds to the excitement that surrounds the Wisconsin program.

Devin Leary, Kentucky – Confidence Level 4.2/5

Devin Leary was another quarterback that drew a lot of interest while in the portal, and for good reason. When healthy, Leary was excellent. He threw for 35 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2021 and was the ACC Preseason Player of the Year heading into the 2022 season. Now, he’s headed to Kentucky, which is bringing back offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who left the school previously to be the OC for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. Under Coen, the Wildcats’ offense was much more potent (32.3 points per game) than what it was last season under Rich Scangarello (20.4 points per game). The concern for Leary and his success relies heavily upon the offensive line, which struggled mightily last year. Will Levis was sacked 36 times in 2022 after taking just 22 sacks in 2021. Leary has struggled to stay on the field, and he’s taken a lot of hits in his career. If he can play all 12 games for Kentucky, it will be a big win for Leary and the Wildcats.