Conference realignment in college sports is back on the forefront of headlines in the first full month of the football offseason. The Pac-12 Conference, led by commissioner George Kliavkoff, is actively hunting for replacements for the departed USC and UCLA, who are off to the Big Ten in 2024.

The tectonic plates of the college sports landscape seem to be shifting, and conferences are forced to adjust to keep pace with their competitors. The Pac-12 is losing the race in a number of ways against its Power Five counterparts, but the possible addition of two schools — SMU and San Diego State — may help the conference make up more ground than you might think.

Kliavkoff visited SMU’s campus on Wednesday to explore the potential fit, according to The Dallas Morning News. Action Network’s Brett McMurphy reported Tuesday that San Diego State and SMU are the conference’s top two candidates for expansion and that the Pac-12 needs more inventory (games on the television schedule), for its new media rights deal.

Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiting SMU Wednesday, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. San Diego State & SMU are top Pac-12 expansion candidates. Pac-12 needs more members & more inventory for new media rights deal, which is expected to rely heavily on digital streaming services

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) February 8, 2023

The biggest factor in, for one, whether or not the Pac-12 expands, and for two, which schools it grabs, is the looming expiration of its current media rights deal. The Pac-12 contract with Fox and ESPN expires on July 1, 2024, but Kliavkoff surely wanted to have the media rights deal figured out before USC and UCLA head to the Big Ten and serious discussions begin with potential replacements.

However, the Pac-12’s media rights deal currently pays its members an annual average of $21 million. The figure is significantly lower than other conferences because of the Pac-12’s late window of games past 10 PM EST. The league also isn’t doing itself any favors with the ever-elusive Pac-12 Networks that nobody can seem to access.

McMurphy reported that the Pac-12’s next media rights deal is expected to “rely heavily” on digital streaming services, which would mark the first collegiate conference to do so after the NFL’s deal with Amazon Prime and the MLS’s deal with Apple.

With the potential additions of SMU and San Diego State, the Pac-12 would ensure that it remains in the Southern California market, although on a considerably smaller scale with USC and UCLA leaving. Additionally, it would add one of the biggest television markets in the nation in Dallas-Fort Worth, which is the fifth-largest market in the United States, per Nielsen’s 2022-23 rankings.

While there may be a temporary cash grab for the league to sign with a streaming platform, the Pac-12 is the last conference that should be looking to shy away from cable because it already struggles with visibility due to its network. The sports revenue from digital streaming seems to be more of a long-term investment than a short-term goal, as the NFL is hoping after seeing a 41% downfall in ratings on “Thursday Night Football,” per Front Office Sports and Next TV. Amazon had to actually compensate its advertisers after falling well short of its viewership expectations.

The Pac-12 wants north of $30 million per year for each of its members on its next deal, per CBS Sports. But with the potential launch into the DFW region and an improving football product expected in 2023, the league may not require a streaming service to help it make up ground, especially not with 50% or more of its games on a streaming platform. After all, the Pac-12 arguably has 10 teams that should compete for a bowl game in 2023, and the California/Stanford Bay Area market will provide value even if the teams underperform again. The return of star quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix along with the addition of Deion Sanders should give college football fans a bit of a morale booster toward an often-maligned conference.

Turning to the football side of things, SMU and San Diego State would be solid pickups, but it should go without saying that the Pac-12 would still fall short of replacing its flagship L.A. schools. Still, the Mustangs have qualified for a bowl game in five of the last six years, while the Aztecs are enjoying a 13-year streak with at least a .500 winning percentage. They’ve won three conference titles in the last 11 years and have claimed three division titles in that span as well.

SMU was very active in the transfer portal this offseason and should be an intriguing outfit in 2023, but the team does lose a number of veterans like WR Rashee Rice and QB Tanner Mordecai. But if the Pac-12 can secure a school in Texas, that wouldn’t just be a win in television ratings, but in recruiting as well.

Pac-12 powerhouses like Oregon, Washington, and Utah, and new recruiting powerhouse Colorado under Deion Sanders, will have another bullet point to their pitch to Texas recruits if SMU heads to the Pac-12. SMU has spoken with the Big 12 and the ACC in its efforts to leap to the Power Five, but the Pac-12 seems like the most realistic landing spot. The Conference of Champions is a good spot for SDSU too, as the Aztecs are 7-4 against Pac-12 teams since 2016.

Of course, the media rights deal must play out, and other sports, particularly men’s basketball, must be considered in this potential transaction. Additionally, academics are a critical factor that would be far from replenished if SMU and SDSU are brought in to replace USC and UCLA. With the loss of its two Southern California schools, the Pac-12 loses two of the top 25 universities in the nation, according to US News’ Best Colleges rankings, while SDSU ranks 151st (third in its own city) and SMU comes in at 72nd.

To answer the question in the headline, the answer is yes for both sides — for the Pac-12, and for both prospective schools. The Aztecs and Mustangs aren’t the Bruins and Trojans, but this move, as well as an increased media rights deal signed as soon as possible, should give Kliavkoff a chance to relax… until the next wave of conference realignment hits the college football shores.