In a matchup of two teams from the most exciting Group of Five conferences in the nation, Western Kentucky, representing Conference USA, takes on South Alabama, representing the Sun Belt. Both teams are missing some key pieces due to the transfer portal, but all the main players are there. The biggest draw, after Austin Reed flirted with the transfer portal, a sudden change of heart brought him back to the Hilltoppers and into this bowl game. The return of Reed sets us up for a massive showdown between the two best teams* to not play in the conference championship in their respective conferences. 

*(not including the perennially robbed James Madison University)

How We Got Here:

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers enter this game off of an interesting 13-game season where they finished 8-5. The 13th game comes from an allowance that lets any team that plays an away game in Hawai’i get an extra game in order to offset travel costs. The intrigue entering the season revolved around how Reed would perform in the place of record-setting QB Bailey Zappe. We got an answer, but maybe not quite as definitive as some people would have liked. Western Kentucky beat the teams it was supposed to beat and lost to the teams you would’ve expected it to lose to. Reed showed that he is more than serviceable as a quarterback and put together a great season. Head coach Tyson Helton proved that his offense could still be explosive even after the loss of Zappe and Zach Kittley. The Hilltoppers didn’t exactly have a signature win, but their best performance came in Week 4 when they beat FIU 73-0.

After a decade of mediocre at best play in the Sun Belt, South Alabama finally took a huge leap forward this year. In what was probably one of the best seasons in Fun Belt history, the Jaguars were able to take the next step in large part due to the help of Toledo transfer quarterback Carter Bradley. A team that was known as a solid defensive team with poor offensive play, became a good offensive team with a great defense. That was all that was needed for the Jaguars to leap into the upper echelon of Group of Five teams. The Jaguars had their fair share of phenomenal games this year. The hints of greatness appeared early when they won in Central Michigan as underdogs. They then took a very good UCLA team to the 12th round before the inevitable knockout punch, letting everyone in the Sun Belt know that they were a threat. In the end, they missed out on the conference championship due to their crushing 10-6 loss against Troy, where the offense failed to score a touchdown for the only time all season.

Both teams will be missing some players from the transfer portal, but Western Kentucky drew the short end of the stick in that regard. The Hilltoppers will be missing multiple depth pieces, as well as starters on the offensive line. As of now, there have been no other opt-outs, but the opt-out market is volatile and could change in a heartbeat.

Players to Watch:

Western Kentucky:

QB Austin Reed — Reed had massive shoes to fill after Bailey Zappe set numerous records in the 2021 season. He admirably stepped up to this challenge, putting together a campaign where he threw for 4,247 and 36 TDs. There was intrigue regarding where Reed would end up following his entry into the transfer portal, but he ultimately decided that his best landing spot was where he took off from and came back to the Hilltoppers. He will look to build momentum going into next season with a strong performance in the bowl.

WR Malachi Corley — It doesn’t make sense to talk about Reed without talking about his dynamic duo. Like Zappe had Jerreth Sterns, Reed has Malachi Corley. Corley has taken a massive leap this season, nearly doubling his yardage from 691 last season to 1,179 this year. He did this on 90 receptions, tacking on nine touchdowns as well. Built extremely sturdily, he breaks tackles with ease, and with 37 broken tackles, he had 11 more than anyone else in the nation. The YAC monster is always one man away from taking one to the house. 

LB JaQues Evans — While the Hilltoppers are known mostly for their offensive prowess, they have some dogs on the defensive side of the ball as well. Perhaps none of those dogs bark louder than JaQues Evans. The sophomore stepped into starter’s snaps for the first time in his career and didn’t disappoint. He led the team in both tackles (101) and sacks (eight). Much like Reed, Evans entered the transfer portal for a brief period but is now back and committed to Western Kentucky. 

South Alabama:

QB Carter Bradley — Toledo transfer quarterback Carter Bradley has probably been one of the top 10 most influential transfers at the quarterback position. It would be difficult to overstate how much he has transformed this offense. The Jaguars have perennially been one of the bottom 20 offenses in the country for the last decade, so a sudden shot up to the top 50 or 40 is a massive upgrade. Bradley is a huge part of that improvement, falling just short of 3,000 yards with 2,976 and added on 25 touchdown passes to boot. His play didn’t just help the offense, but having longer possessions and getting leads equally helped the defense. It was able to get more rest and play aggressively with leads, and aggressive defense has been a calling card for South Alabama all year. 

RB La’Damian Webb — For a team where such improved quarterback play is an important part of its year, South Alabama’s true strength lies in its run game. Run The Damn Ball has become such a mantra for this team that the coaches have shirts printed with RTDB on them to wear at practice. The majority of that workload falls on the shoulders of First Team All-SBC RB La’Damian Webb, who thrived to the tune of 1,013 yards and 14 total touchdowns. If it wasn’t for an injury down the back stretch, those numbers could have been much higher. Prior to the injury, he had back-to-back workhorse efforts where he combined for 63 carries, 409 yards and seven touchdowns. He was able to play a full game in the last one of the season with a slightly reduced workload, and he should be good to go for the bowl. 

Safety Yam Banks — Since head coach Kane Wommack took over in 2021, exactly one defensive player has started every game for the Jaguars — Yam Banks. In Wommack’s “Swarm D,” Banks plays the integral role of the “Husky” defender. This means that he will often be lined up on the best player the offense has inside, may that be a slot receiver, running back or tight end. His job is to take away the opponent’s best player. His penchant for doing that has allowed him to thrive in Wommack’s defense. He was among the nation’s leaders in interceptions with five, while also having 10 pass breakups and 45 tackles. For the sake of variety, the Jaguars occasionally blitz him and he picked up a sack this way as well. Look to see him matched up with the Hilltoppers’ YAC monster Malachi Corley and see who wins that matchup. 

Score Prediction:

Vegas has this game set at a 4.5-point spread with South Alabama being favored, with a point total of 56. Meaning it is projected to finish about 31-26 in favor of South Alabama. That total is noticeably way down from where it opened at 64, which may in part be due to Austin Reed opting out and then back into this game. It is likely due to the fact that the public is thinking like me and thinks this game is going to be lower scoring than that. I agree that the Jaguars win however, as I think their defense will more consistently be able to stop the other team’s offense. I’m going to predict a final score of 27-21 with the Jaguars taking home the New Orleans Bowl. For my fellow degenerate gamblers, that means a bet on the South Alabama spread and the under. South Alabama 27, Western Kentucky 21.